MJO812 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: lol We have over 100 inches of virtual snow this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: lol It keeps going and going lol.....never change nu-GPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: It doubled down lol Looks like tripled lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, romba said: It keeps going and going lol.....never change nu-GPS New gfs might be more weenie than the old one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 24 inches here in NYC with 30 + for SNE on the gfs for next weekend LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I think I’m up to 350+ inches of Fantasy, phantom long-range GFS snow since November.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 CMC and UKMET trended west from 0Z for weekend. Still need another 100-200 mile shift to be meaningful, but not impossible. Rather not look at the fantasy storm 8 days out and wet my pants for no reason this far out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 24 inches here in NYC with 30 + for SNE on the gfs for next weekend LOL Yeah no lol. My house is already buried in feet of virtual snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 The 3/4/2020 run of the 12z showed what would be an unprecedented snowstorm. The model, using the more "conservative" 10:1 ratio, showed 20" or more snow in Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. The closest storm to such a solution since regular recordkeeping began in the 19th century was the February 2003 President's Day snowstorm: The closest storm that includes the pre-National Weather Service era was the January 14-16, 1831 "Great Atlantic Snowstorm." That historic blizzard dumped 2 feet of snow in Philadelphia, 18"-20" in New York City, and around 2 feet in Boston. Almost certainly, one can expect widespread chatter on Social Media, but such a solution is highly unlikely, if not all but improbable. First, historic March snowstorms that brought 8" or more snow to all of the aforementioned cities typically had a much more expansive cold air mass and much colder air mass available to them. Second, the cold associated with the February 2003 snowstorm was severe even for January. Third, the GFS is alone in depicting what would be an almost unprecedented snowstorm. And a major caveat applies: "Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range." https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah no lol. My house is already buried in feet of virtual snow. The Governor needs to declare a virtual state of emergency ahead of this virtual snowstorm. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9503 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The Governor needs to declare a virtual state of emergency ahead of this virtual snowstorm. Murphy has the virtual brine ready! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 25 minutes ago, mikem81 said: CMC and UKMET trended west from 0Z for weekend. Still need another 100-200 mile shift to be meaningful, but not impossible. Rather not look at the fantasy storm 8 days out and wet my pants for no reason this far out We can only hope but I think its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I'm assuming they've already laid 2 feet of salt in anticipation of next weekend's nu-GFS blizzard? Love tasting it on breezy days, almost as much as I love having unnecessary CT scans just for fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 3/4/2020 run of the 12z showed what would be an unprecedented snowstorm. The model, using the more "conservative" 10:1 ratio, showed 20" or more snow in Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. The closest storm to such a solution since regular recordkeeping began in the 19th century was the February 2003 President's Day snowstorm: The closest storm that includes the pre-National Weather Service era was the January 14-16, 1831 "Great Atlantic Snowstorm." That historic blizzard dumped 2 feet of snow in Philadelphia, 18"-20" in New York City, and around 2 feet in Boston. Almost certainly, one can expect widespread chatter on Social Media, but such a solution is highly unlikely, if not all but improbable. First, historic March snowstorms that brought 8" or more snow to all of the aforementioned cities typically had a much more expansive cold air mass and much colder air mass available to them. Second, the cold associated with the February 2003 snowstorm was severe even for January. Third, the GFS is alone in depicting what would be an almost unprecedented snowstorm. And a major caveat applies: "Several individual case studies illustrate the model still exhibits a cold bias and may produce excessive snow in the medium range." https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pns19-09gfs_v15_1.pdf NAUSEATING TEASE - GFS SHOULD BE PUT ON THE SHELF - BUT IT IS STILL NWS MODEL OF CHOICE...………. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Don't laugh because the GFS has continually shown snow action for the 11th-12th,, actually for days. Current run is 27" here!!!. Then 5 winter like days follow------all that snow on the ground------you know what that does for the BL. For a six day period it averages just 30degs., about 12degs. BN------where is it tapping the cold air from? Maybe the model is trying to score Brownie Points with the meteorological community---------you know the kind you get on your shoes when you step in it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: NAUSEATING TEASE - GFS SHOULD BE PUT ON THE SHELF - BUT IT IS STILL NWS MODEL OF CHOICE...………. So far, its snowy outcomes have not been mentioned by the NWS. Representative is the extended forecast discussion from Mount Holly: The airmass will moderate as the flow becomes more southwesterly through the weekend and will warm from the 40s on Saturday to upper 50s Sunday and then 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The only hitch in the this part of the extended is that clouds will increase into Tuesday as a low pressure will track up through the Ohio Valley and into New England on Tuesday, dragging a cold front across our area Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing another round of rain to the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 24 inches here in NYC with 30 + for SNE on the gfs for next weekend LOL Early april fools joke?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Give it up. It’s not only dead, it’s buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 The GEFS (which is still run off the old GFS core) does actually give a little support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 The king hath spoken: NO! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: So far, its snowy outcomes have not been mentioned by the NWS. Representative is the extended forecast discussion from Mount Holly: The airmass will moderate as the flow becomes more southwesterly through the weekend and will warm from the 40s on Saturday to upper 50s Sunday and then 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The only hitch in the this part of the extended is that clouds will increase into Tuesday as a low pressure will track up through the Ohio Valley and into New England on Tuesday, dragging a cold front across our area Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing another round of rain to the region. The GFS is so ridiculous it's not even worth mentioning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: The GEFS (which is still run off the old GFS core) does actually give a little support. The GEFS cold bias has actually been worse than the GFS OP this winter. https://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The GFS is so ridiculous it's not even worth mentioning The 12z Euro has different solution than the GFS had. I'll leave it at that. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The GFS is so ridiculous it's not even worth mentioning Might as well use the Lesotho model. What does the Iraqi model say? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 The real question is, will we hit 70 before March 20th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 They need to stop running the GFS. It'll probably still be showing snow 7-10 days out in July. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Barman49 said: They need to stop running the GFS. It'll probably still be showing snow 7-10 days out in July. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Or just make it to show up to 84 hr like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day. I actually want this pattern to continue through June-would lessen the backdoor/onshore flow potential 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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