Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 There have been a few articles popping up in the last week or two on how NJ has used very little of the snow removal budget due to the lack of snow this winter compared to previous years. Now watch us blow through the entire budget and then some on one storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Nam looks way north. also please write ur novels about crappy winter and how u need to go to Vermont to be a happy weenie on the banter cause this is threats conversation only. GFS next 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 2:52 AM, SnowFeen1 said: Nam looks way north. also please write ur novels about crappy winter and how u need to go to Vermont to be a happy weenie on the banter cause this is threats conversation only. GFS next Expand Wow thanks for letting me know how you feel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 3:38 AM, JustinRP37 said: Wow thanks for letting me know how you feel. Expand Gfs is going to be even closer than 18z... image coming up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 4:01 AM, SnowFeen1 said: Gfs is going to be even closer than 18z... image coming up Expand cmc looks worse still phases with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 4:37 AM, SnowFeen1 said: cmc looks worse still phases with the northern stream Expand Every model is phasing further south closer to the coast - this is a classic Miller A - starts out along the Gulf coast and makes the turn up the coast and now strong HP is in southern Canada feeding the cold air into the system and it is now within 5 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 4:45 AM, NEG NAO said: Every model is phasing further south closer to the coast - this is a classic Miller A - starts out along the Gulf coast and makes the turn up the coast and now strong HP is in southern Canada feeding the cold air into the system and it is now within 5 days out Expand Sick run for eastern cape on the cmc Even nyc and especially Long Island get in the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 4:48 AM, SnowFeen1 said: Sick run for eastern cape on the cmc Expand snowstorm for eastern half of NJ and points east - CMC has been the most consistent with this storm several runs in a row But GFS and EPS trending towards it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 The way this winter has gone with all the day 8-10 threats that fell apart a surprise March snowstorm that only started showing up 5-6 days out actually makes sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Ukie on board 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 5:41 AM, NEG NAO said: Ukie on board Expand Ukmet seems conservative with the clown maps. With that setup seems like an easy 3-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 I’m cautiously optimistic we at least see something measurable. (1” or something) the stronger the storm more dynamic cooling at play. Temps will be marginal at the coast so it may just be a car topper. Think about it this way 97/98 which was an even more awful winter for the coast then this one pulled off 5.5” in a March storm. March storms tend to be really moisture loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 10:55 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m cautiously optimistic we at least see something measurable. (1” or something) the stronger the storm more dynamic cooling at play. Temps will be marginal at the coast so it may just be a car topper. Think about it this way 97/98 which was an even more awful winter for the coast then this one pulled off 5.5” in a March storm. March storms tend to be really moisture loaded. Expand Normally this isn't a bad look 5 days out but we've gotten so burned this winter that we won't believe it till we see it. We have a better chance of this type of system working out in March then Jan/Feb with the shifting wavelengths. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 11:56 AM, SnoSki14 said: Normally this isn't a bad look 5 days out but we've gotten so burned this winter that we won't believe it till we see it. We have a better chance of this type of system working out in March then Jan/Feb with the shifting wavelengths. Expand Awful airmass, this is an eastern New England event, if anything. Nothing is indicative of this becoming a snowstorm for the metro area, nothing. No blocking, bad airmass, storm really doesn’t take off until way NE of us, too late 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Even though there won’t be any cold to start the storm, it would be nice to see a change to wet snow before the storm ends. Hard to believe it has been 2 years since a deep low passed within 150 miles of the benchmark. It will be interesting to see if the 2 year cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression storm track pattern is starting to relax But we’ll have to wait until next winter since this could just be the March wavelengths at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 12:04 PM, snowman19 said: Awful airmass, this is an eastern New England event, if anything. Nothing is indicative of this becoming a snowstorm for the metro area, nothing. No blocking, bad airmass, storm really doesn’t take off until way NE of us, too late Expand Awful airmass if this doesnt phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 12:26 PM, MJO812 said: Awful airmass if this doesnt phase Expand Yes and very fast flow which doesn’t help with no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 12:51 PM, snowman19 said: Yes and very fast flow which doesn’t help with no blocking Expand Yep the flow is still fast . It's going to come down to timing like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 1:11 PM, MJO812 said: Yep the flow is still fast . It's going to come down to timing like always. Expand I'd give it a 1 in 15 chance...if we had an NAO block, we'd be in business 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Typical gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 1:26 PM, Allsnow said: Typical gfs Expand no even worth looking at along with the CMC---EURO/UKie way to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 1:30 PM, Brian5671 said: no even worth looking at along with the CMC---EURO/UKie way to go Expand It would have to absolutely bomb off shore on the benchmark at our latitude with very strong UVVs/heavy QPF rates to dynamically cool the column to get a full fledged snowstorm out of this. The cold and blocking are not there, fast flow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 While the NAM is still outside its best range, looks like it wants to phase a little faster than the 0z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 12:04 PM, bluewave said: Even though there won’t be any cold to start the storm, it would be nice to see a change to wet snow before the storm ends. Hard to believe it has been 2 years since a deep low passed within 150 miles of the benchmark. It will be interesting to see if the 2 year cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression storm track pattern is starting to relax But we’ll have to wait until next winter since this could just be the March wavelengths at work. Expand I like how the snow part of this (if any) will be coming Friday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 On 3/2/2020 at 2:57 PM, Allsnow said: I like how the snow party of this (if any) will be coming Friday night. Expand Precip rates are going to have to really rip if there is to be any snow at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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