CIK62 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 12Z, GFS has 25" near the 11th., followed by at least 5 days of mid-winter weather! Sorry, the Ensemble has zilch. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020022912&fh=282 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: 12Z, GFS has 25" near the 11th., followed by at least 5 days of mid-winter weather! Sorry, the Ensemble has zilch. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020022912&fh=282 The 18z run has amnesia and doesn’t remember the snowstorm from the 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Crush job . Still a little too warm for the coast but we can work with that 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 hours ago, SnowFeen1 said: Crush job . Still a little too warm for the coast but we can work with that Looking better on the Euro. Need it to go negative sooner for the cold air to spill down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 4 hours ago, SnowFeen1 said: Crush job . Still a little too warm for the coast but we can work with that The CMC enough said. That model is worse than the GFS Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 16 hours ago, bluewave said: Best looking day 7 OP Euro 500mb forecast of the season. But the interaction between the two streams needs some work. It would probably require a well timed phase for a rain to wet snow scenario. Compared to what we have seen this season, this will work for me! All hail the blind squirrel!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Still wouldn't lose any sleep on this next 'threat' until Tuesday/Wednesday at the earliest for our forum. Right now, it looks like this would be for eastern New England. Especially with the progressive flow. We can hope it comes back but again with a sea of warmth before and after the storm we have to wonder is it worth spending millions on cleanup if it will just melt quickly? Those storms usually end up depressing me further as it just shows what the season could have been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Canadian still has the 993 lp phasing and close enough and snow for Northern NJ as HP builds in southern Canada - the GFS still has nothing as its cold bias is keeping the storm well out to sea GFS might correct in the coming days waiting for the EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 what's the absolute last thing we want if a phase needs to happen just right? a positive ao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: what's the absolute last thing we want if a phase needs to happen just right? a positive ao No one besides Snow88, Tony loves snow and JB really believe that there’s really going to be a snowstorm here Fri - Sat lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: No one besides Snow88, Tony loves snow and JB really believe that there’s really going to be a snowstorm here Fri - Sat lol Agreed. The pattern is terrible for any snow in this area. NE is a different ballgame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Euro has the phase happening too far off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Euro has the phase happening too far off shore Big norlun for New england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No one besides Snow88, Tony loves snow and JB really believe that there’s really going to be a snowstorm here Fri - Sat lol I'm going to stay in the SNE thread where people are still in winter mode. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: I'm going to stay in the SNE thread where people are still in winter mode. More METS in that forum and some seasoned winter weather experts - Typhoon Tip etc.etc. - anyways ICON has no phase and a weaker system sliding offshore south of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm going to stay in the SNE thread where people are still in winter mode. I'm from SNE originally and my parents are still there. I'm actually up for the weekend visiting. It is a much different climate here than the metro area. Always has been. Overnight temperatures are always much different. SNE will almost always be in a better shape than we are for snow. If the threat is marginal for SNE, then it isn't even a threat in our area 95% of the time. Have you been able to get up north this winter? It is worth escaping for a weekend before nobody is left in winter mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm going to stay in the SNE thread where people are still in winter mode. Yes because doing that will help you get snow down here. Enjoy your clouds. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I'm from SNE originally and my parents are still there. I'm actually up for the weekend visiting. It is a much different climate here than the metro area. Always has been. Overnight temperatures are always much different. SNE will almost always be in a better shape than we are for snow. If the threat is marginal for SNE, then it isn't even a threat in our area 95% of the time. Have you been able to get up north this winter? It is worth escaping for a weekend before nobody is left in winter mode. I was going to go to Cooperstown last month but my friend had to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Yes because doing that will help you get snow down here. Enjoy your clouds. This never was and still isn’t a snowstorm threat for us, most reasonable people know this. Horrible setup, no blocking, garbage airmass, March.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 12Z EPS looks better then OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Thinking ENE lines up in the prime position on this one. For the rest of us we'll need this to come more west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I was going to go to Cooperstown last month but my friend had to work. Get on the train and head north. Amtrak out of Penn Station goes right to Rutland and Burlington. Take a few days and do it for yourself. No excuses, no friend bailed out, no nothin' just jump on the train and go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 heading to Okemo weekend of 3/20-hoping we see a snowstorm around that time-interestingly, we went to Mohawk (NW CT) yesterday and saw 3 inches from 3 intense squalls that hit us-crazy whiteout in one of them-made for great skiing with the fresh powder. Luckiest day ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: heading to Okemo weekend of 3/20-hoping we see a snowstorm around that time-interestingly, we went to Mohawk (NW CT) yesterday and saw 3 inches from 3 intense squalls that hit us-crazy whiteout in one of them-made for great skiing with the fresh powder. Luckiest day ever. Yeah his year anything that softens the surface if you're south of I90 is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: what's the absolute last thing we want if a phase needs to happen just right? a positive ao reminder 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: reminder Sarcasm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: I was going to go to Cooperstown last month but my friend had to work. I hear you but like @gravitylover's suggestion. 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Get on the train and head north. Amtrak out of Penn Station goes right to Rutland and Burlington. Take a few days and do it for yourself. No excuses, no friend bailed out, no nothin' just jump on the train and go. Rutland has a great Amtrak station right downtown. That is our favorite area of Vermont, and Killington. Get up there and enjoy winter. While March is definitely more of a spring month for us, it is definitively a winter month up there most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I hear you but like @gravitylover's suggestion. Rutland has a great Amtrak station right downtown. That is our favorite area of Vermont, and Killington. Get up there and enjoy winter. While March is definitely more of a spring month for us, it is definitively a winter month up there most years. Anthony, be aware, if you take Justin and Gravity’s excellent suggestion and if while/because your up there the NY Metro gets a significant snow, Feen will probably start a “ go fund me” page. As always ...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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