Mid to Long Range Threats

[CIK62]

Only hope from the EURO Weeklies would be the days in and around Feb. 28---Mar. 08.    

Remember that even if we had Moscow's January here last month, we would have still have been AN last month.      They apparently finished with a 33* Average, when about 15* is normal.    Their December 2019 beat our December 2015-----they made it a +14, ours was +13.3.

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Only hope from the EURO Weeklies would be the days in and around Feb. 28---Mar. 08.    

Remember that even if we had Moscow's January here last month, we would have still have been AN last month.      They apparently finished with a 33* Average, when about 15* is normal.    Their December 2019 beat our December 2015-----they made it a +14, ours was +13.3.

Yep. Looks like the weeklies have less of a Niña look around then. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

almost comical at this point

Same areas keep getting hit. Getting old.

[gravitylover]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same areas keep getting hit. Getting old.

My friends in northern VT, northern NH and the Daks are lovin' it.

[Brian5671]

59 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My friends in northern VT, northern NH and the Daks are lovin' it.

great year for VT/NH/ME ski resorts.  I'm heading to Okemo in March-hoping the snows continue for another month

[gravitylover]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

great year for VT/NH/ME ski resorts.  I'm heading to Okemo in March-hoping the snows continue for another month

 The difference a bit further north is significant. It was thigh deep or better at Smuggs this morning. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. Looks like the weeklies have less of a Niña look around then. 

I’ll believe it when it’s within 5 days, Boy Who Cried Wolf lol

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

great year for VT/NH/ME ski resorts.  I'm heading to Okemo in March-hoping the snows continue for another month

Okemo has been right on the border between snow and ice. It’s been ice storm after ice storm at Stratton. luckily there was enough snow on the backside of the last event to dust the crust enough to make it fun for experienced skiers/ridders. If at all possible I would go killington north

 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

[Jacob brooklyn]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

Fuggedaboutit

[TriPol]

Can mother nature please give us something to track? I'm getting tired of tracking coronavirus updates on Twitter.

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

The GFS is determined to keep us from giving up.

[Sanman 06]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

Another 10 day clown map. It will be 2 inches of rain !!! 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

Fuggedaboutit

Way too far out but there might be a favorable period towards the end of the month into March.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

Chance of verifying, .00000000000001% it’s almost easier to just not look at this point. We need something major, like a SSW to completely reshuffle the pattern. Unfortunately that’s just not happening with such an intense and stable +AO

[nycwinter]

the gfs has to be upgraded again it's has now become the old nam

[White Gorilla]

8 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

This is hilarious 

[bluewave]

Hopefully, this cold bias gets fixed before next winter.

We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS - Keeps Clowning Around

They need to start stamping these with “For amusement purposes only” for the uninformed. 
 

Just one more example of the GFS incompetence after the upgrade as per Bluewaves post above. The bigger problem is it will be showing similar results 3-4 days before the rains begin. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, this cold bias gets fixed before next winter.

We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

How many upgrades does the gfs need lol

[romba]

They need to stop call them upgrades and call them updates or adjustments. Because some of these recent 'upgrades' (GFS, Euro too I've heard) are clearly downgrades in overall ability to predict weather outcomes.

[uofmiami]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, this cold bias gets fixed before next winter.

We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Unfortunately the GEFS-FV3 is going to exhibit the same issue when the GEFS gets upgraded this spring.  Really hope they get a fix for the FV3 GFS & GEFS before next winter.

[HeadInTheClouds]

The GooFuS is unreliable beyond 5 days. Why do they still run it out to 384 hours? What purpose does it serve? 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The GooFuS is unreliable beyond 5 days. Why do they still run it out to 384 hours? What purpose does it serve? 

It has 60s next Wednesday.  That I'd believe 

[forkyfork]

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, this cold bias gets fixed before next winter.

We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

what was the reason given for this so-called "upgrade" and why cant they just roll back to the previous version?

 

[romba]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what was the reason given for this so-called "upgrade" and why cant they just roll back to the previous version?

 

That would be acknowledging a waste of tax dollars and time and therefore a loss of potential future funding. Instead they'll likely try to find some simple fix as to the reason and just patch it up, and then patch it up, and patch it up and eventually we'll get back to where we were two years ago with an even larger waste of time and money having been accrued.

 

I'm super cynical when it comes to government funded agencies and projects (and even more cynical of privately run ones lol)

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, romba said:

That would be acknowledging a waste of tax dollars and time and therefore a loss of potential future funding. Instead they'll likely try to find some simple fix as to the reason and just patch it up, and then patch it up, and patch it up and eventually we'll get back to where we were two years ago with an even larger waste of time and money having been accrued.

 

I'm super cynical when it comes to government funded agencies and projects (and even more cynical of privately run ones lol)

that sounds about right- they seem to be super sensitive when people criticize their pet model.

To the media's credit, they seem to be pretty much ignoring the GFS now lol

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

Unfortunately the GEFS-FV3 is going to exhibit the same issue when the GEFS gets upgraded this spring.  Really hope they get a fix for the FV3 GFS & GEFS before next winter.

IMO, the GEFS should not be changed to FV3 as long as the documented issues with the GFS persist. Moreover, serious consideration should be given as to whether the move to FV3 makes sense, along with a thorough review of alternative options.

With new supercomputing capability, there's little reason not to give genuine consideration to alternative paths.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-kicks-off-2018-with-massive-supercomputer-upgrade

Unfortunately, my worry is that the "sunk cost fallacy" will constrain thinking among those who make the ultimate choices. If that happens and the performance gap between U.S. modeling and international modeling widens--and the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC are continuing to make improvements--there will be a risk of a broad loss of confidence in U.S. modeling. That bad scenario would have adverse consequences of its own.

That the GFS was the single global model to report a decline in skill in 2019 is troubling. That the impact of such an adverse development may be discounted in favor of pursuing the path chosen when real issues exist is even more troubling.

[bluewave]

This was a controversial decision when it was made in 2016.

https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/07/28/noaa-makes-decision-new-global-weather-model-controversy-likely/

NOAA has decided on the nuts and bolts of a new, next generation, weather model that will replace the present Global Forecast System (GFS model), and the choice is sure to spark some controversy. The choice boiled down to a system called MPAS vs FV3. Many meteorologists were rooting for MPAS, which was developed by NCAR, while NOAA was leaning toward the FV3 which was a project of the GFDL Lab. 

Dr. Cliff Mass (at the Univ. of Washington) has written several blog posts about how we have fallen behind in numerical weather modelling, and has been championing the MPAS system as the much better way forward. It looks like this will not happen, based on news I just heard about tonight. NOAA chose the FV3 today, instead of MPAS (The video above shows the FV3 in action) and I am anxious to hear the debate that will soon ensue. 

There are two sides to this issue, and smart people have different opinions on both sides, and NOAA’s press release ishere. I’ve asked Cliff Mass for a comment, and will update this post when new info arrives. NOAA folks, and others, who favor the FV3 core, I would love to share your views as well.