HeadInTheClouds Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 NWS Albany discussion for peeps in northern sections. Still calling for 1-2 inches snow/sleet then some ice late wednesday/early Thursday. They also mention precip possibly changing back to snow as 3rd wave moves NE on Friday. The high pressure area will be exiting off the New England coast and low pressure will be lifting from the Tennessee Valley towards the upper Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will be occurring and a period precip will be moving northward towards the area from the mid Atlantic states, arriving after midnight for far southern areas and reaching northern areas by the late night hours. Initially, the temp profile is cold enough for all snow, but warming temps aloft will quickly allow this to changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Most areas should see a light accumulation of snow (about 1 or 2 inches) before mixed precip begins. There could be a glaze of ice (0.10 inch or less) and a dusting of sleet within the mixed precip as well. Temps will be warming in the boundary layer as well, with the southerly flow and no blocking high keeping the low level cold air in place. As a result, surface temps look to rise above freezing for valley areas by the mid to late morning, changing any precip over to rain. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks and Greens may linger with some freezing rain into the afternoon, but the bulk of the precip will be winding down by that point, as the best isentropic lift shifts away from the area. Another wave of low pressure will be developing across the mid Atlantic States and this will be lifting northeast along the eastern seaboard for Thursday night into Friday. Although there should be a break in precip from about Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, steady precip will be arriving once again for Thursday night. There are still some differences in the models regarding the exact track of this storm system, which will have an impact on p-types. Although the best moisture flux and heaviest precip should be mainly east of the area across New England, our area should still be seeing some steady and occasionally moderate precip for late Thursday night into Friday morning. As the wave of low pressure lifts northeast along the coast, colder air (both at the surface and aloft) will rush into the region from the northwest. This will allow for a changeover back to snow, first occurring across high terrain and northwestern areas, for late Thursday night into Friday. There still are significant model differences on when this occurs and how much precip falls after the changeover. The latest 12z GFS is an outlier, even when compared to the 12z GEFS members, so our forecast is closer to a compromise of the 12z NAM/ECMWF, which favors a colder solution and snow prolonging through the day on Friday. As of right now, a light to moderate accumulation of snow is possible, especially for northern and high terrain areas. Temperatures will be warmest on Friday morning in the mid 20s to mid 30s and falling during the daytime. By later in the day, gusty northwest winds will be developing as well, as the storm really cranks up over eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 10:45 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: NWS Albany discussion for peeps in northern sections. Still calling for 1-2 inches snow/sleet then some ice late wednesday/early Thursday. They also mention precip possibly changing back to snow as 3rd wave moves NE on Friday. The high pressure area will be exiting off the New England coast and low pressure will be lifting from the Tennessee Valley towards the upper Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will be occurring and a period precip will be moving northward towards the area from the mid Atlantic states, arriving after midnight for far southern areas and reaching northern areas by the late night hours. Initially, the temp profile is cold enough for all snow, but warming temps aloft will quickly allow this to changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Most areas should see a light accumulation of snow (about 1 or 2 inches) before mixed precip begins. There could be a glaze of ice (0.10 inch or less) and a dusting of sleet within the mixed precip as well. Temps will be warming in the boundary layer as well, with the southerly flow and no blocking high keeping the low level cold air in place. As a result, surface temps look to rise above freezing for valley areas by the mid to late morning, changing any precip over to rain. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks and Greens may linger with some freezing rain into the afternoon, but the bulk of the precip will be winding down by that point, as the best isentropic lift shifts away from the area. Another wave of low pressure will be developing across the mid Atlantic States and this will be lifting northeast along the eastern seaboard for Thursday night into Friday. Although there should be a break in precip from about Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, steady precip will be arriving once again for Thursday night. There are still some differences in the models regarding the exact track of this storm system, which will have an impact on p-types. Although the best moisture flux and heaviest precip should be mainly east of the area across New England, our area should still be seeing some steady and occasionally moderate precip for late Thursday night into Friday morning. As the wave of low pressure lifts northeast along the coast, colder air (both at the surface and aloft) will rush into the region from the northwest. This will allow for a changeover back to snow, first occurring across high terrain and northwestern areas, for late Thursday night into Friday. There still are significant model differences on when this occurs and how much precip falls after the changeover. The latest 12z GFS is an outlier, even when compared to the 12z GEFS members, so our forecast is closer to a compromise of the 12z NAM/ECMWF, which favors a colder solution and snow prolonging through the day on Friday. As of right now, a light to moderate accumulation of snow is possible, especially for northern and high terrain areas. Temperatures will be warmest on Friday morning in the mid 20s to mid 30s and falling during the daytime. By later in the day, gusty northwest winds will be developing as well, as the storm really cranks up over eastern New England. Expand Their forecast area goes all the way Into the dacks and southern greens and includes peaks over 3,000’. I would take that with a grain of salt south of kingston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:15 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Their forecast area goes all the way Into the dacks and southern greens and includes peaks over 3,000’. I would take that with a grain of salt south of kingston Expand Yes, I know, I'm still expecting an inch or so of snow/sleet and some zr before the rain. North of 84 should see that. I'm not so sure about back end snow on Friday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 10:30 PM, snowman19 said: Everything has trended badly for us since the beginning of December. Really right after that minor snow event at the beginning of the month, things started to go to very badly and they never came back again. I’m seeing some posts on social media about pattern flips “after mid-February”...I’ll believe it when I see it, I very seriously doubt some miracle end of February or March winter comeback Expand We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March. With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon. We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped. 92-93 is a decent analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Watch for that low to trend south and have rain turn to snow Friday evening. GEFS has it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 1:56 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Watch for that low to trend south and have rain turn to snow Friday evening. GEFS has it Expand There may be wet flakes at the very end down to the NW suburbs but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 11:21 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes, I know, I'm still expecting an inch or so of snow/sleet and some zr before the rain. North of 84 should see that. I'm not so sure about back end snow on Friday though. Expand Probably mostly sleet/ZR with the initial push in your area, then rain and maybe ending as snow Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 1:12 AM, SnoSki14 said: We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March. With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon. We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped. 92-93 is a decent analog. Expand Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 3:39 AM, snowman19 said: Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day Expand Didn't we have March two years ago produce like 4 snowstorms for the area, it can definitely happen if the pattern is right. (Yes I'm aware some of those storms were dissapointing but definitely performed bigtime for parts of the region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 3:41 AM, HVSnowLover said: Didn't we have March two years ago produce like 4 snowstorms for the area, it can definitely happen if the pattern is right. (Yes I'm aware some of those storms were dissapointing but definitely performed bigtime for parts of the region) Expand You had a historic SSW event 2 years ago that produced a very strong, anomalous -AO and - NAO/Greenland Block which lead to that March pattern. Nothing even remotely close to that is in the wings right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 3:19 AM, HVSnowLover said: There may be wet flakes at the very end down to the NW suburbs but that's about it. Expand Ok Billy sounds good. I’ll take some mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 3:39 AM, snowman19 said: Why is 1993 an analog for March? That was a totally historic March pattern back then and I see no parallels at all to this winter, it was an entirely, completely different climate regime back then to boot. Even assuming we “flip” in early March, you have about the first 15 days of the month, then you have to hope for a very anomalous pattern, thread the needle, to get major snowstorms along the east coast south of New England (i.e.1993), even southern New England gets shaky at that point. Post 3/15, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day Expand The climo wasn't that different in the early 90's; it was mostly warm and snowless until 94. Winters were very much like this one, with some colder temps for sure, but not by much. I remember buying a big down parka from LL Bean and not needing it for years, and when I did it no longer fit ( it's an age thing ). The 93 event was the biggest in years, and quite out of the norm; it also mixed, keeping it from being that big around here. But 90, 91, 92 were mild, though we had two small events in March 92. In 91 the Star Ledger asked what had ever happened to winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Inland areas change to snow on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 2:30 PM, MJO812 said: Inland areas change to snow on the nam Expand whoopdee do, 20 minutes of non accumulating snow after 2 inches of rain 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 2:40 PM, Brian5671 said: whoopdee do, 20 minutes of non accumulating snow after 2 inches of rain Expand It's a colder run Who cares. Snow is snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 2:57 PM, MJO812 said: It's a colder run Who cares. Snow is snow. Expand An attitude that will lead to a long, happy and healthy life. As always .... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 2:57 PM, MJO812 said: It's a colder run Who cares. Snow is snow. Expand I think this could trend to an advisory snows for the suburbs 2 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 3:29 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: I think this could trend to an advisory snows for the suburbs Expand really ? please explain with some graphics from models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 5:59 PM, NEG NAO said: really ? please explain with some graphics from models Expand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 5:59 PM, NEG NAO said: really ? please explain with some graphics from models Expand Flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 6:02 PM, PB-99 said: Flizzard. Expand Check out the cmc 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 6:20 PM, MJO812 said: Check out the cmc Expand has nothing for immediate NYC metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 6:20 PM, MJO812 said: Check out the cmc Expand You might have been looking at last night's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 6:42 PM, romba said: You might have been look at last night's run Expand Probably looked at december 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I swear some people think NYC is geographically located where Albany is when they show maps... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 6:20 PM, MJO812 said: Check out the cmc Expand Uhhh there’s nothing to look at 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 2:30 PM, MJO812 said: Inland areas change to snow on the nam Expand A trace of non accumulating white rain Friday. And the Saturday night/Sunday “event” did a Houdini 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 How about a 964 mb low over the area Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 On 2/5/2020 at 10:19 PM, snowman19 said: A trace of non accumulating white rain Friday. And the Saturday night/Sunday “event” did a Houdini Expand That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW. It could have been an MA event but that’s about it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 On 2/6/2020 at 12:46 AM, SnowGoose69 said: That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW. It could have been an MA event but that’s about it Expand Models fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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