Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy 11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter 13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy 15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy 16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks Nice post! We can only hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012. We are likely screwed next winter too with models showing a nasty La Niña. Perhaps though stronger Pac La Niña forcing might make things better than last winter and this in an odd sort of way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 just noticed that ewr didn't have a single day below freezing last january. even 2012 had days below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, forkyfork said: just noticed that ewr didn't have a single day below freezing last january. even 2012 had days below freezing this winter might make 11-12 look cold and snowy.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 35 minutes ago, forkyfork said: just noticed that ewr didn't have a single day below freezing last january. even 2012 had days below freezing Jan 2012 was colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: this winter might make 11-12 look cold and snowy.... At least the October storm was interesting. This year has been boring af Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Jan 2012 was colder this might be ewr's first january without a day below freezing. 1973, 1989, 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2007 all had at least one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: People are already giving up on the 2nd half and March ? LOL There's no real reason not to, every threat gets worse and worse, every pattern change gets delayed and delayed. It may just not happen this winter. I'm sure it will snow again but I doubt we get a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: There's no real reason not to, every threat gets worse and worse, every pattern change gets delayed and delayed. It may just not happen this winter. I'm sure it will snow again but I doubt we get a good pattern. Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks. Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 CMC caves for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: this might be ewr's first january without a day below freezing. 1973, 1989, 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2007 all had at least one That would be absolutely incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Models pretty wet for the late week storm. The NAM is 2-3" of rain and the GFS printing out 1.5"-2" of rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 hours ago, Brian5671 said: this winter might make 11-12 look cold and snowy.... Might beat 2001 for one of the worst winters if we dont get anymore snow but that would be hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills. Too far, you're kidding right? Why do so many people think that anything outside their regular routine is too far to drive. I know I'm on the other side of that, I'll hop in the car to drive to Burlington to have a beer with friends, I'll go to Ellicotville to go mtn biking and I just drove to The Keys because it's easier than flying and renting and stuff. 2.5-3 hours seems like a nothing little ride... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills. We’re going to get snow soon I promise you. I would even watch the baroclinic gradient after the second wave on Thursday. It could push the gradient south enough that the next wave at least ends as snow Friday night with the low pressure trending way south of us. Also this weekend that bowling bowl is looking promising that could drop 3-6 if everything goes well. Winter is far from over, though it has been feeling like that the last 48 hours or so. Gfs also has it very active next week and on. id like to point out that this weekends storm is sandwiched between the 2 high pressures so the ceiling can’t be higher than a 3-6 maybe 4-8 tops but most likely lower than that because of shredding from both highs pushing dry air as the low does try to develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 What a weenie run the 6z gfs was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Might beat 2001 for one of the worst winters if we dont get anymore snow but that would be hard. Definitely worst since. Up here in coastal CT we are ahead of that year for snowfall, but a ratter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a weenie run the 6z gfs was. GFS has a cold bias in the LR so that's why we get these cold/snowy runs that never verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This period continues to show promise in the M/A , N/E. The 1st waves will run out east and pull the barroclinic zone east. How far east ? How far North ? That will get sorted over the next few days, but LP should be off the Delmarva this weekend and we will have a chance to snow inside a very hostile pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS has a cold bias in the LR so that's why we get these cold/snowy runs that never verify Some of the ens are hinting at the boundary slipping south of our area after the 15th. The Pv will be in a better position and the AO dropping from uber strength. We get a better cold press and knock the southeast ridge down in return. Do we believe it? I wouldn’t bet my house on it.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 41 minutes ago, PB-99 said: This period continues to show promise in the M/A , N/E. The 1st waves will run out east and pull the barroclinic zone east. How far east ? How far North ? That will get sorted over the next few days, but LP should be off the Delmarva this weekend and we will have a chance to snow inside a very hostile pattern. Yup, right at the end of the February 8-11 window i have been on for days. Our one shot. After that shades close until late February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Some of the ens are hinting at the boundary slipping south of our area after the 15th. The Pv will be in a better position and the AO dropping from uber strength. We get a better cold press and knock the southeast ridge down in return. Do we believe it? I wouldn’t bet my house on it.... Yeh, the EPS takes the heights centered over SCAN To N/L by day 12 and beyond. Until that get`s inside 10 days, I will not bite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Yeh, the EPS takes the heights centered over SCAN To N/L by day 12 and beyond. Until that get`s inside 10 days, I will not bite. We have seen this modeled for months. I forget who posted it, but both the GEFS and Euro ENS have been too cold at all levels. the GEFS much worse, but both have been very cold biased, showing lower than normal heights over the NE which never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 if we don't see improvement in two weeks I'll temper my thinking on March...we could still see the biggest snow of the season in March but that's not saying much...this winter is like a warm version of the 1979-80 winter especially if we do get a March storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The wave is garbage on the Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, PB-99 said: The wave is garbage on the Euro The epitome of this winter, flooding rains on Friday to a chance of a half inch of snow Saturday night lol. Spring can’t come soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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