bluewave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 6:56 PM, MJO812 said: This is false Euro use to be good 5 days out before the upgrade. Expand OP runs beyond 120 hrs are never really great with storm details. That’s why the EPS means are often used 126 to 240. But even then, they mostly show skill with things like AN or BN temperatures and the 500mb pattern. A Euro advantage is the great ensemble system that often shows when a long range OP run is an outlier among its ensembles. That why a super amped OP solution beyond 120hrs often doesn’t match the EPS mean. The GFS really doesn’t have this relationship with its ensembles. So they can both often turn out to be incorrect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 7:41 PM, snowman19 said: We are going into a severely positive AO and NAO pattern along with a PNA tank and a SE ridge, I don’t believe any model showing a coastal snowstorm in the midst of such an anomalously horrible pattern. A -EPO/-WPO isn’t going to help you Expand SE ridge backs down a little after day 12. But the -EPO is still displaced W so the trough axis end up over the UMW. New England could turn cold here, but chances are that ends up warmer in the M/A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 7:35 PM, forkyfork said: it's a bullshit method Expand Forky please bring back the older lady avatars. As always ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Eps mean still hinting at something for Saturday night. Snow mean around 1-2 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 7:37 PM, PB-99 said: Great , so there will be 2 feet in Killington and not 3. It`s a NNE pattern was the point. Expand Honestly the models have been showing the snow line pushing down to CNE for weeks now and that hasn't even been happening. This is just a pathetic winter almost everywhere until we see otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 7:58 PM, Allsnow said: Eps mean still hinting at something for Saturday night. Snow mean around 1-2 for the area. Expand The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:00 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything. Expand Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:05 PM, Allsnow said: Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong. Expand The cutter was flatter on the 12Z Euro than 0Z and yet the second storm was way worse so I'm not sure how much one impacts the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:05 PM, Allsnow said: Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong. Expand This winter has found inventive ways not to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:08 PM, snowman19 said: This winter has found inventive ways not to snow Expand The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough. My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 7:59 PM, HVSnowLover said: Honestly the models have been showing the snow line pushing down to CNE for weeks now and that hasn't even been happening. This is just a pathetic winter almost everywhere until we see otherwise Expand Killington has 127 inches of snow so far this year. They average 250 inches a year and they are probably on their way to N with the pattern in front of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:08 PM, HVSnowLover said: The cutter was flatter on the 12Z Euro than 0Z and yet the second storm was way worse so I'm not sure how much one impacts the other Expand The energy for the weekend was weaker. We need the cutter to set the stage with a better airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:14 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough. My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens Expand Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I would not expect any big changes-this god awful pattern has been locked in place and too much to fix overall.... Models have some headfakes, but I'm not buying into any of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:56 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: I keep hearing the pacific jet keeps crashing the +PNA what does this mean exactly? how long has I been this way? what type of pattern change would need to happen for it to stop? Expand It keeps killing the pna ridge from amplifying into western Canada. So it’s harder for the storms to turn up the coast. But overall the pacific has been a hot mess for two years now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 cutters with brief cold shots behind them 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 8:30 PM, snowman19 said: Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down Expand This needs to be pinned. Second winter in a row of this crap. Cue the 'Oh but the second half of March looks good for a pattern change' aka more cold rain and white rain for the metro in March and April who wants that. Summer and swimsuits at this point, let's just get it over with! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:03 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened? Expand Raging Pacific jet stream, or so I've been told, and this happened last year as well until March when the pattern finally shifted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:00 PM, forkyfork said: cutters with brief cold shots behind them Expand No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern lasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:08 PM, bluewave said: No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern will last. Expand if the 50/50 isn't as strong this spring/summer we'll roast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:09 PM, forkyfork said: if the 50/50 isn't as strong this spring/summer we'll roast Expand Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 People are already giving up on the 2nd half and March ? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:00 PM, forkyfork said: cutters with brief cold shots behind them Expand Only chance at snow would be front end slop or a weak wave between cutters. Unfortunately, beautiful days like today and tomorrow are probably over for a while. Looks more 40’s and rain going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:03 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened? Expand It happened all last winter. The pacific jet is just very fast around the globe. We need to slow it down but unfortunately it hasn’t happen. We have done better in March because the wave length shorten. Even when we get a some pna help out west it’s more of a ridge then what we really need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:29 PM, MJO812 said: People are already giving up on the 2nd half and March ? LOL Expand Lol you too were just about ready to throw in the towel after this past weekend's headfake. It can break even the most optimistic weenie. Resorting to a name change though to change our mojo though, that I approve of 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:42 PM, romba said: Lol you too were just about ready to throw in the towel after this past weekend's headfake. It can break even the most optimistic weenie. Resorting to a name change though to change our mojo though, that I approve of Expand I'm trying everything lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:46 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: what other winters in the past have we seen this? just curious this is new to me more curious whats causing it Expand I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping. 97-98 had a similar pac jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:48 PM, Allsnow said: I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping. 97-98 had a similar pac jet Expand Gefs possibly goes into 7. We need it to move along to have a good March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:56 PM, MJO812 said: Gefs possibly goes into 7. We need it to move along to have a good March. Expand I don’t currently think we get much help from the mjo this month or the next. The warm waters are just helping convection fire in the wrong phases. Weeklies keep this Niña type pattern going well into March. There are weeks where the boundary slips south but definitely no deep winter pattern in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 9:48 PM, Allsnow said: I would need to go back and look. The Pv being so strong and mjo in warm phases isn’t helping. 97-98 had a similar pac jet Expand Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy 11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter 13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy 15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy 16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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