SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:32 PM, Brian5671 said: record warmth? Expand We won't even get that. It'll mostly be a stale March like airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:43 PM, SnoSki14 said: We won't even get that. It'll mostly be a stale March like airmass. Expand Hopefully it's sunny-the overcast 45 degree days are the worst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:45 PM, Brian5671 said: Hopefully it's sunny-the overcast 45 degree days are the worst... Expand Euro touching 60 next Wed-Thu. Records are near 70. Could be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:48 PM, purduewx80 said: Euro touching 60 next Wed-Thu. Records are near 70. Could be close. Expand and the warmup's are usually well over model guidance so I'd agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 D10 monster brewing on the Euro. Shocker. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Great upper mid west pattern. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:11 PM, PB-99 said: Expand My friend in Utah has over 200 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:13 PM, Snow88 said: My friend in Utah has over 200 inches. Expand Alta averages 500 inches a year. You should see if they are hiring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 7:59 PM, White Gorilla said: It is like looking at a beautiful woman you will never be with. Dreaming is fun. Expand I reside in the NYC, metro UHI feels like Atlanta area. I can sincerely say that I would have a better chance, this cold season, with a beautiful woman than a KU. The odds on both translate as zero to none. As always ... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Nam looks a little better. Has some snow showers for Saturday for the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:43 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Nam looks a little better. Has some snow showers for Saturday for the area. Expand you know it's bad when a snow shower is something to get excited about. worst winter ever.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Afternoon thoughts... 1. New York City's 9th warmest January is now nearing an end. 2. Seasonal snowfall to date will be below to much below normal through the end of January from Washington, DC to New York City. The expected spatial distribution of seasonal snowfall is consistent with winters that typically wind up with below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region. 3. The weekend storm will have little or no wintry impact on the region. Eastern New England could still get grazed, but even there any snowfall amounts would likely be light. 4. Some of the teleconnections forecasts point to the development of another strongly positive AO. Cases during which a strongly positive AO coincides with a generally positive EPO during the February 1-15 outcome typically result in a warmer than normal February in the region and below normal February-March snowfall. 5. Until there is credible and consistent evidence of a more favorable hemispheric pattern for signficant snowfalls, Day 10 mirages of the kind seen on today's 12z ECMWF that cruelly tease snow lovers will likely disappear with the passage of time. Sometimes such mirages will disappear with the next model cycle. Occasionally, there can be storms like the February 3-4, 1995 snowstorm that occur in a generally bad pattern, but those are the exception, not the norm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:47 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: been Reading this forum for a very long time ive definitely seen this movie before. It’s trending better and it’s still 3 days out. Expand We tend to remember the anomalies that end up crushing, and forget the million others that 'trend' better only to still end up mood flakes versus completely OTS. That said, I'm hanging on every model run holding out hope we hit the lottery this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:45 PM, Brian5671 said: you know it's bad when a snow shower is something to get excited about. worst winter ever.... Expand It's completely different than 12z. H5 markedly better just like everything else this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:13 PM, Snow88 said: My friend in Utah has over 200 inches. Expand And oddly enough one state over in Denver they have 0.0 inches of snow so far for the month of January. I'm not sure how the ski areas in Colorado are faring for the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 18z NAM another improvement. the surface depiction makes almost zero sense so I wouldn’t hang on to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Icon looks horrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 9:11 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon looks horrible Expand Who cares? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 At hour 63 the two streams are beginning to interact and then the NAM basically loses it. It still isn’t close to resolving this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 9:13 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: At hour 63 the two streams are beginning to interact and then the NAM basically loses it. It still isn’t close to resolving this. Expand Yes. But add it to the list of models with dramatic improvement from run to run. Hope we get a hit and label it as the "it's over" storm. So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 9:11 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon looks horribleI think from this point on we should focus on the Euro & NAM. Even if the ICON showed a big hit I wouldn't be jumping up & down. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 9:11 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: 18z NAM another improvement. the surface depiction makes almost zero sense so I wouldn’t hang on to that. Expand Never understood this- why would the model struggle translating what it depicts in the upper atmosphere to the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 9:11 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: 18z NAM another improvement. the surface depiction makes almost zero sense so I wouldn’t hang on to that. Expand Crazy change 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 8:11 PM, PB-99 said: Expand Total can kick with the cold now as it starts after the 13th lol. If the -epo ridge sets up to far west it’s just going to dump the cold into the west. As you posted, great pattern for Chicago. We need to see where the -epo sets up or even materialize. That will write the story for February. I’m beginning to think it’s just not our year unfortunately. I will just hope for a early spring if that’s the case 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:04 PM, Allsnow said: Total can kick with the cold now as it starts after the 13th lol. If the -epo ridge sets up to far west it’s just going to dump the cold into the west. As you posted, great pattern for Chicago. We need to see where the -epo sets up or even materialize. That will write the story for February. I’m beginning to think it’s just not our year unfortunately. I will just hope for a early spring if that’s the case Expand It looks like a major RNA pattern coming up by mid-February. If that’s the case, the can is kicked until the end of the month or early March. At that point you can hear the clock ticking. After 3/15 it’s pretty much game over minus some anomalous freak snow event south of New England 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:09 PM, snowman19 said: It looks like a major RNA pattern coming up by mid-February. If that’s the case, the can is kicked until the end of the month or early March. At that point you can hear the clock ticking. After 3/15 it’s pretty much game over minus some anomalous freak snow event south of New England Expand Yep. Looks like a La Niña February with the mjo in 4-5-6 by mid month. Unless we see some type of attack on the Pv, I don’t see a cold March either imo. Just nothing argues sustained cold for February currently. Yes, we could get some type of swfe event but it’s all going to depend on how strong the southeast ridge is. I still like the 5th-9th for something. Unfortunately, I would be lying if I told you it looked as good as it did a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:13 PM, Allsnow said: Yep. Looks like a La Niña February with the mjo in 4-5-6 by mid month. Unless we see some type of attack on the Pv, I don’t see a cold March either imo. Just nothing argues sustained cold for February currently. Yes, we could get some type of swfe event but it’s all going to depend on how strong the southeast ridge is. I still like the 5th-9th for something. Unfortunately, I would be lying if I told you it looked as good as it did a few days ago. Expand AO is forecast to go to +4 or even +5. Just not looking likely at all IMO. The hallmark of a bad winter is the "good pattern" is always pushed down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:17 PM, Brian5671 said: AO is forecast to go to +4 or even +5. Just not looking likely at all IMO Expand Yeah, the only mechanism I see to get cold down here is the -epo. But if the ridge is poorly positioned it will just dump the cold into the west with the -pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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