Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:57 PM, NEG NAO said: EXPLAIN PLEASE - I ASKED WHAT THE ERROR RANGE IS Expand The northern stream energy dug way further south. Look at the trend gif I posted. Idk what the error range is but we've seen blunders pretty much up to time of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 That lead energy is going to be there and it's going to rob the system behind it of moisture/dynamics. So, two things need to happen: 1) The lead energy needs to speed up and move out quicker (not really happening on the 12z GFS). 2) The two vorts behind it need to sync up cleaner, with the northern vort diving down (that clearly is happening). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:54 PM, Ericjcrash said: Pretty drastic improvement. Need N/s to take the plunge quicker. Expand It’s over Johnny 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 4:07 PM, snowman19 said: It’s over Johnny Expand Agreed. End result is the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This is our one decent chance 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 4:29 PM, PB-99 said: This is our one decent chance Expand Not getting sucked in again with a run that shows a good solution over 200 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:11 PM, Snow88 said: Not getting sucked in again with a run that shows a good solution over 200 hours out. Expand wow, you're throwing in the towel? You can tell it's bad. Real bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:11 PM, Snow88 said: Not getting sucked in again with a run that shows a good solution over 200 hours out. Expand Admit it... You still feel that little tingling of excitement... You want to suppress it... You want to ignore it... But the weenie in you can't be denied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I guess no one was optimistic following the gfs/cmc 12z? SNE thread a lot noisier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:16 PM, Brian5671 said: wow, you're throwing in the towel? You can tell it's bad. Real bad. Expand Well he's certainly not jumping on these 10 day threats like he used to, and for that, I give him credit. That inner weenie is not an easy thing to contain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:16 PM, Brian5671 said: wow, you're throwing in the towel? You can tell it's bad. Real bad. Expand I'm not at all but seeing solutions over 200 hours dwindling to crap is frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:21 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: I guess no one was optimistic following the gfs/cmc 12z? SNE thread a lot noisier. Expand H5 did look better today but we are running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:43 PM, Snow88 said: H5 did look better today but we are running out of time. Expand Don't give up. You never give up. We need your optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:49 PM, sussexcountyobs said: Don't give up. You never give up. We need your optimism. Expand Nah, let's approach with a new methodology. Negative Anthony might be our ace in the hole. Euro running... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Well our turn to colder weather now features 5 50-Degree Days and No Snow for the first two weeks of February(12Z, GFS). Average T is 39degs. for the period, or 6degs. AN. I told you that we should be guessing the number of 50-Degree Days, not the number of inches of snow that will not be accumulating. The MJO sucks, TC's suck and the atmosphere does not know whether it wants to react to a weak El Nino or react to a non-existent La Nina. Any storm will be by accident and not predictable on a coherent basis, well in advance. The PV will rotate away after this period and we will have our old friend the SE Ridge back in town to entertain us. Give me back January already---the SE Ridge does not look so good with a long grey beard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:49 PM, sussexcountyobs said: Don't give up. You never give up. We need your optimism. Expand At the same time, don't be the drunk guy at the end of a party when everyone went home saying "Where is everyone? The party just started!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:54 PM, CIK62 said: Well our turn to colder weather now features 5 50-Degree Days and No Snow for the first two weeks of February(12Z, GFS). Average T is 39degs. for the period, or 6degs. AN. I told you that we should be guessing the number of 50-Degree Days, not the number of inches of snow that will not be accumulating. The MJO sucks, TC's suck and the atmosphere does not know whether it wants to react to a weak El Nino or react to a non-existent La Nina. Any storm will be by accident and not predictable on a coherent basis, well in advance. The PV will rotate away after this period and we will have our old friend the SE Ridge back in town to entertain us. Give me back January already---the SE Ridge does not look so good with a long grey beard. Expand 11/12 redux is pretty much what we're getting. Zero cold air, not a single telleconnection in our favor, a couple weak cutters, yawn yawn yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Another improvement on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:09 PM, Ericjcrash said: Another improvement on the euro. Expand Great for SNE, not for ny metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:17 PM, White Gorilla said: Admit it... You still feel that little tingling of excitement... You want to suppress it... You want to ignore it... But the weenie in you can't be denied... Expand Even the biggest weenies after ongoing and “ long term” disappointment eventually shrivel. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:13 PM, NJsnow89 said: Great for SNE, not for ny metro. Expand Great improvements for everyone. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:16 PM, Snow88 said: Great improvements for everyone. Expand 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:09 PM, Ericjcrash said: Another improvement on the euro. Expand H5 looks better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:20 PM, Snow88 said: H5 looks betterLooks better. I'm looking forward to the especially tonight's NAM run. Still a long shot but Euro pulled me back in. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:25 PM, Snow88 said: If anyone is still tracking this , head to the SNE thread for discussion Expand Yeah I mean just look at the dramatic improvement at h5 on the GFS, Canadian and now Euro. You have to stop letting it bother you when people tell you its over. Ironically it's usually me saying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:30 PM, Barman49 said: Looks better. I'm looking forward to the especially tonight's NAM run. Still a long shot but Euro pulled me back in. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Expand This def a long shot but still close to track. I mean , what else do we have to track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:31 PM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah I mean just look at the dramatic improvement at h5 on the GFS, Canadian and now Euro. You have to stop letting it bother you when people tell you its over. Ironically it's usually me saying it. Expand I know its most likely over but we are all snow starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:31 PM, Snow88 said: This def a long shot but still close to track. I mean , what else do we have to track? Expand record warmth? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:22 PM, Snow88 said: Seriously? Look at h5 or check out the SNE thread. Seems like they dont think it's over but everyone in here has given up. Long shot but the models this winter have been a joke. Expand Just trying to point out that words matter. You could've described that way differently and still been positive about the changes at 500 mb. To me, you implied everyone in the NE got snow out of that solution. It's much closer to what the EPS has been showing. Going to have to rely on perfect dynamics to get accumulating snow in what will be a garbage air mass. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 6:34 PM, purduewx80 said: Just trying to point out that words matter. You could've described that way differently and still been positive about the changes at 500 mb. To me, you implied everyone in the NE got snow out of that solution. It's much closer to what the EPS has been showing. Going to have to rely on perfect dynamics to get accumulating snow in what will be a garbage air mass. Expand Agree I'm trying to hold out hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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