MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Rtd208 said: Dude, will you ever learn?? Hit the ignore button on people like this and don't reply to them. I dont learn because it pisses me off. I dont know how to ignore people. That's my problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: I dont learn because it pisses me off. I dont know how to ignore people. That's my problem. And that is exactly what they want so you are playing into their game. Is it annoying? Yes, which is why I blocked both of them a long time ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: The odds are higher for a major rainstorm this weekend then a snowstorm. Regardless it should be an active weekend (if the storm occurs) with multiple weather hazards regardless of what form the precipitation takes. We'll see what happens over the next 24-36 hours which I think is going to be the key timeframe to start honing in on a solution. Replying to my own post above, just for the record I am NOT saying a snowstorm isn't possible this weekend just the odds favor a rainstorm due to the marginal air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mersky said: I guess you missed my post yesterday were i said everything had to be perfect for this to be a snowstorm. That said you wrote it off days ago. And your timeframe you have been hyping looks cold and dry. Congrats “Worry about temps later” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mersky said: I guess you missed my post yesterday were i said everything had to be perfect for this to be a snowstorm. That said you wrote it off days ago. And your timeframe you have been hyping looks cold and dry. Congrats His timeframe looks good right now but we all know how long range has verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Concentrate on the weather not each other 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, Mersky said: Meh That not a cold dry look with a mean trough over Chicago and ridge off west coast. Even Some hints of blocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Not liking the latest MJO plot for GEFS. Goes into cod and re emerges in 3 or 4. Would not be surprised given how winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: That not a cold dry look with a mean trough over Chicago and ridge off west coast. Even sine hints of blocking Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look. Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier. Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look. Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier. Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air Still a better airmass then what we have been dealing with. The epo looks to go negative closer to the 9/10th as we get more of a gradient look. But yes it’s not super cold as it modifies a bit dumping out west first. the vortex has really killed the cold in Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look. Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier. Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air What's not a very cold look ? The gfs , gefs, and eps love his timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What's not a very cold look ? The gfs , gefs, and eps love his timeframe. umm, there's no cold air in Canada, so despite a trough, there's not much cold to dump into it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I was thinking 4 days is when models will home in on solutions, but they might already be homed in. Looks whiffy. However that last 2 events, which were never really interesting for these parts, moved in 100 mile increments right up until game time and outcomes were west and warmer. Different scenario, but point is don’t buy anything esp. in marginal conditions until game time. If I had to bet, this whiffs or rains. Too many variables have to align for the snowy solutions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Mersky said: You are joking right?? No cold air in Canada?? It doesn't have to be super arctic cold to snow, just cold enough. This time of the year, we can do it with less than ideal cold air, but it is still a challenge. Depends on storm track, strength and upper level dynamics too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The Euro being so consistent with being ots has me thinking that's probably what happens. I know the bias of holding energy back but unless it changes in the next day or so I think this is the outcome. Of course now that I say this it'll come west at 1pm. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 We got a ways to go to figure this out no matter what models might say today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Still a better airmass then what we have been dealing with. The epo looks to go negative closer to the 9/10th as we get more of a gradient look. But yes it’s not super cold as it modifies a bit dumping out west first. the vortex has really killed the cold in Canada. Yea it looks like we go -PNA/RNA for awhile 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 If I remember correctly the 2010 day after Christmas blizzard was written off until the day before it hit. It’s not over till it’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I rather this storm go OTS honestly. I think it will bode well later on as it intensifies and it’s wave break causes a block right over GL as models have been showing off and on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 is the icon ever to be taken seriously or only within a certain timeframe?No. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Gfs is going to be a scraper if that... way East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: last night it was a direct hit. now its east? seems like what the models do this far out watch the next run correct back west? im no expert but lurking the forum so many years how many times does that happen? Happens alot with Miller A storms Storms usually come back west when the northern stream gets sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I rather this storm go OTS honestly. I think it will bode well later on as it intensifies and it’s wave break causes a block right over GL as models have been showing off and on. agree - this will be useful down the road 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: agree - this will be useful down the road One can hope. One storm at a time. I dont want to worry about the next storm.one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I rather this storm go OTS honestly. I think it will bode well later on as it intensifies and it’s wave break causes a block right over GL as models have been showing off and on. It times well with the next system. Without a block the fast flow lends credence to a fish storm so that's what's in the offing this weekend. There isn't a whole ton of support for the snowy solution now save a couple runs here and there for this weekend. Let the fish have at it, and we can feast on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 48 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: If I remember correctly the 2010 day after Christmas blizzard was written off until the day before it hit. It’s not over till it’s over. It's over. Boxing day at least had models showing a hit a few days before. Then they showed a miss and then came back on board as a hit a couple days before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 To add insult to injury 12z GFS takes low on the 7th OTS although obviously its way to early to be looking at that. In general I think GFS is a lousy model and they should limit it to 240 hours like the rest. What is the point of going out farther on an operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The models have shown everything and anything at one point with nearly every storm this season and last, so saying 'the models showed a big hit previously and now show nothing, this is where we want to be!' is foolish. What amazes me is that we are supposedly within the GFS wheelhouse but it still changes so often. At least the Euro has been pretty consistent. It sees what it sees, until some new data causes an adjustment and it changes. The GFS seems to change every 6 hours on a whim. Maybe if it were twice a day this wouldn't seem as big of an issue to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: To add insult to injury 12z GFS takes low on the 7th OTS although obviously its way to early to be looking at that. In general I think GFS is a lousy model and they should limit it to 240 hours like the rest. What is the point of going out farther on an operational? The GFS has been consistent in showing a big system for then, and the airmass looks a lot better than the one forecast for the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: I rather this storm go OTS honestly. I think it will bode well later on as it intensifies and it’s wave break causes a block right over GL as models have been showing off and on. That long ass jet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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