SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score. I doubt it shifts east again - I would think its going to be either side 50 -75 miles of where it is now and lock into that solution by late Wednesday when all the key players are onshore out west for better sampling ………….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 0Z CMC still east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 UKIE to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island can be tricky last storm was snowing at my house in west Babylon while it was raining 2 miles south of me. Yeah I am in Lindenhurst and this does happen from time to time. 6.4” on the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I haven’t even bothered measuring. I haven’t decided what counts for accumulation here, in my heart at least. I’ve always been a stalwart for the driven street, but it’s painful hoping for it to stick sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Anyone got a Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Anyone got a Euro? Way out to sea. Not a drop of precip west of Islip, light rain showers for the rest of the island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The Euro is even further OTS than the CMC, like next to no precip at all this weekend 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Too many things need to go right for us to see snow in this set up. I just don’t see it happening. No model currently gives our area any snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Too many things need to go right for us to see snow in this set up. I just don’t see it happening. No model currently gives our area any snow. Gfs does that was near a perfect run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs does that was near a perfect run. Old saying rings true 4 days out you never want to be in the bullseye .once this potential storm is sampled new data will be added to the models..in my opinion by wed oz or thur 12z much better idea of things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Well, I'm liking the fact that all 4 major global models at 0Z are at least now showing a pretty significant to major coastal storm this weekend (mostly Saturday late morning through the evening for the Philly-NYC region), but only one of them is showing significant snowfall. The GFS shows a snow to rain storm with significant snowfall along and NW of 95, while the UK shows a monsoon of a rainstorm with 1-3" of rain (close to 1" well NW to almost 3" near the coast), and the Euro and CMC show a major storm a couple hundred miles off the coast, with just some modest rains near the coast, but huge rains offshore (1-2"), so the precip is certainly there with all 4 models. But we're about 5 days out and obviously much can change between now and the event, especially with the main players being well offshore of the NA continent. As many have said with borderline antecedent temps this is a serious "thread the needle" scenario, so a major snowstorm is unlikely, but we all know powerful storms like this can essentially "generate" their own cold air via dynamic cooling with heavy precip rates and sometimes turn a rainstorm into a pastebomb of a snowstorm. So, nobody needs to buy milk and bread yet (or a canoe), but this one is worth tracking and maybe it's our time to get lucky...or not. The one thing that's starting to look likely is the potential for heavy surf and possibly minor tidal flooding (fortunately it won't be a full moon). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said: Too many things need to go right for us to see snow in this set up. I just don’t see it happening. No model currently gives our area any snow. 4 days away Keep tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I am a novice and I totally understand that there are many moving parts that must come together for this weekend to work out well for snow lovers.The way the winter has gone with these models = the only time I want to be in the bulls eye is on the day of the storm. The models that have shifted "way" West or OTS could easily show us different solutions in 24 or 48 hours. Lets see what the later runs today have to say, with 4 days to go yet A LOT can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 If the GFS is right, this will be white rain for many. We need a better phase in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 hours ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Anyone got a Euro? It is on vacation right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I'm going to pronounce this storm the Allsnow storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Eps snow mean ticked down. The idv have hits but lots of warm solutions. The airmass continues to be a huge issue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps snow mean ticked down. The idv have hits but lots of warm solutions. The airmass continues to be a huge issue. Euro is an outlier right now but temps continue to be an issue like you said. It's a shame because we are at the end of January and temps shouldn't be an issue with a Miller A storm. Hopefully the models dig the northern stream in and everyone cashes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The odds are higher for a major rainstorm this weekend then a snowstorm. Regardless it should be an active weekend (if the storm occurs) with multiple weather hazards regardless of what form the precipitation takes. We'll see what happens over the next 24-36 hours which I think is going to be the key timeframe to start honing in on a solution. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is an outlier right now but temps continue to be an issue like you said. It's a shame because we are at the end of January and temps shouldn't be an issue with a Miller A storm. Hopefully the models dig the northern stream in and everyone cashes in. I tried to tell you and @Mersky but once again it was like talking to a brick wall. The airmass greatly improves after the 5th. We will have chances in that timeframe. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I tried to tell you and @Mersky but once again it was like talking to a brick wall. The airmass greatly improves after the 5th. We will have chances in that timeframe. The “snowiest” model (GFS) has backed down to a non event now at 6z. ICON, CMC, UKMET, Euro want nothing to do with the weekend and for good reason 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 53 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I'm going to pronounce this storm the Allsnow storm . 88 and AllSnow, the GFS showing a storm and the time frame is over a week away ? = Although I would love for this to verify = sorry guys I aint buying it until it is MUCH closer to the event ( as the sky has fallen more than snow has this winter ). Lets get past this weekend first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I'm going to pronounce this storm the Allsnow storm . With all these hr 240 snowstorms we've had this year, I'm going to run out of room to put the snow from my driveway and sidewalk soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 46 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The “snowiest” model (GFS) has backed down to a non event now at 6z. ICON, CMC, UKMET, Euro want nothing to do with the weekend and for good reason DOA for this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 eventually one of these long range storms will materialize as forecast...Maybe not this year but it will happen again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The “snowiest” model (GFS) has backed down to a non event now at 6z. ICON, CMC, UKMET, Euro want nothing to do with the weekend and for good reason Still 4 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, Animal said: DOA for this weekend. You never toss the towel on a Miller A days out. Remember when the Euro showed alot of snow 72 hours out and even the same day in December for the area. You are dealing with a Miller A which is notorious for NW shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Still 4 days away Just now, Snow88 said: You never toss the towel on a Miller A days out. Remember when the Euro showed alot of snow 72 hours out and even the same day in December for the area. You are dealing with a Miller A which is notorious for NW shifts. Dude, will you ever learn?? Hit the ignore button on people like this and don't reply to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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