PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Yes a surface high would be great. yeh verbatim surface temps are between 33-35 but with such a dynamic strong storm im sure thats isothermal snow for many even down to the coast that run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 here is the 12Z ICON - timing is faster and weaker but still basically the same track as the GFS and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 5:01 PM, NEG NAO said: here is the 12Z ICON - timing is faster and weaker but still basically the same track as the GFS and CMC Expand ICON was classic benchmark. CMC coastal hugger, GFS just SE benchmark. You are right tho, all pretty similar. pretty good agreement at the development of a potent coastal storm this far out. Encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 5:07 PM, Snow88 said: Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD. Expand the best place for the MJO is the COD in this type of pattern if you want an east coast snowstorm...……... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 5:07 PM, Snow88 said: Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD. Expand Big storm … yeah. It's Gulf Coast evolution is straight out of an ice age. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 5:21 PM, RDRY said: Big storm … yeah. It's Gulf Coast evolution is straight out of an ice age. Expand Yeh blizzard into Louisiana. Nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 At least the pattern is active. Hopefully it works out for us in a good way!!! Help us out Mother Nature !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 5:31 PM, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Yeh blizzard into Louisiana. Nuts Expand Didn’t the blizzard of 96 originate down in the south as well? Good to see all the models picking up on something. Been a while since we had a Nor Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The storm has been on the charts for a while so it's definitely legit. But there's no room for error. The track has to be perfect and the storm has to bomb out because the antecedent airmass is garbage. I'd give it a 10% chance for us to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 5:21 PM, RDRY said: Big storm … yeah. It's Gulf Coast evolution is straight out of an ice age. Expand On 1/26/2020 at 5:31 PM, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Yeh blizzard into Louisiana. Nuts Expand GFS gave Jacksonville a major blizzard in December, its a joke of a model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 euro says no. Clear skies, sunny weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:31 PM, David-LI said: euro says no. Clear skies, sunny weekend. Expand euro..not what it used to be ..many other models have storm ..so i say tons of tracking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:32 PM, Allsnow said: Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro. Expand It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:35 PM, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said: That is good to hear euro..not what it used to be .. Expand Sorry will have to disagree with you on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:35 PM, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said: euro..not what it used to be ..many other models have storm ..so i say tons of tracking ahead. Expand It has the highest scores of any model. But sure, whatever you say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:41 PM, psv88 said: It has the highest scores of any model. But sure, whatever you say. Expand Yes but it has sucked this winter. You cant deny it. Remember the past storms where it had alot of snow for our area ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:36 PM, Allsnow said: It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy Expand Clear bias of the euro unless they fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The Euro still might have the highest verification but it is a lot less consistent. It flip flops more than it used to it seems. Not saying it's wrong but it doesn't seem as consistent from run to run anymore. Maybe it's the pattern it's having issues with. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:36 PM, Allsnow said: It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy Expand IIRC the old euro had a bias of hanging the sw back too long, only to correct later? Seems like I remember that. this storm has that sort of back and forth modeling we saw many times in the snowy years. Probably won’t play out the same way: gfs picks up on something early, euro agrees, then they both waver with the euro out underneath due to slow eject. Then wham a nice euro run and everything else catches up. Would be fun to track like the old days. Edit just snow snow88 post. Yeah...but I think the model has a new set of issues nowadays...i.e. it’s generally more erratic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Continue improvements with more of a sustained cold pattern on the eps/gefs/geps for the first week of February. I’m sure many will melt when the cutter comes that brings the cold out of the west. The look between the 5th and 8th is really nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Lots of uncertainty with low location on the eps. Only consistent is snow mean is less then 1 inch for the coast. The majority of the members are inland hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 6:57 PM, Snow88 said: Yes but it has sucked this winter. You cant deny it. Remember the past storms where it had alot of snow for our area ? Expand Ok Tony. Which model has a higher verification score? It gets really old when the board is hijacked by people like yourself who dismiss a model simply because they dont like what it shows. When the GFS shows a solution you dont like you call it the "Goofus". In any event, the Euro is an improved look from prior runs, but does not show a storm for our area. This should temper expectations for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 7:21 PM, Allsnow said: Lots of uncertainty with low location on the eps. Only consistent is snow mean is less then 1 inch for the coast. The majority of the members are inland hits. Expand I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 7:37 PM, NEG NAO said: I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter Expand I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 7:41 PM, Allsnow said: I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne. Expand this is cold enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 7:47 PM, NEG NAO said: this is cold enough Expand That’s 850’s. The surface temps very iffy. 983 bombing low on a cold and snowy bias model that only gets about a inch in nyc! That should tell you a lot about the airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 7:52 PM, Allsnow said: That’s 850’s. The surface temps very iffy. 983 bombing low on a cold and snowy bias model that only gets about a inch in nyc! That should tell you a lot about the airmass. Expand That’s the GFS thermals I know you know better than look at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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