JakkelWx Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 18 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Love how it starts to split as soon as it nears my house. Plenty close enough for loud booms here and there. Constant low rolling thunder now. Edit: Complete split. Just moderate rain atm. Heavy occasionally but not much else. Final grade looks to be a D+ Never speak too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Surprise! yeah, CAMs have a good signal for storms later this afternoon, mainly for DC and points south. As SPC notes, instability is weak, but shear is fairly good, and the forecast soundings show some good DCAPE, so I guess I agree that some gusty winds are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Nice line forming from Fauquier down into Culpeper and movie ESE toward 95 corridor. Remains to be seen if these go severe...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 25 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Nice line forming from Fauquier down into Culpeper and movie ESE toward 95 corridor. Remains to be seen if these go severe...... Just missed it here. By like 10 miles. Blew up just SE. Looks pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Line came thru as gusty showers. Wind gust to 37 mph, picked 0.31" of rain and some thunder and lightning. Looking forward to the refreshing air and lower dewpoints over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 A damn good thread on improving tornado warning accuracy, it includes a couple of radar grabs from Frederick County, MD. Big takeaway is this research so far is only valuable if the storm is within 60 km (37 mi) from the radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: A damn good thread on improving tornado warning accuracy, it includes a couple of radar grabs from Frederick County, MD. Big takeaway is this research so far is only valuable if the storm is within 60 km (37 mi) from the radar site. I’ve actually read the papers on this one. Effectively, they define a vector from the big raindrop region (Zdr) to the heavy precipitation region (Kdp). If the vector is closer to 90 degrees from storm motion, there is much more likely to be a tornado. The thought is that a narrower vector puts the Kdp region (negative buoyancy from the heavy rain) too close to the updraft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Hmmmmm... from this mornings LWX AFD: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid-upper level ridge over the region early on Sunday will be moving offshore as it feels pressure from deepening trof over the ncntrl CONUS. Expect highs to reach aoa 80F on Sunday. There have been some substantial changes in the past 12 hrs on latest forecasts with respect to next upper level trof fcst to amplify across the mid- section of the country. 00Z ECMWF shows a slower and much deeper trof evolving into a closed (cutoff) low over the mid-south which results in a more intense sfc low pressure area over the TN Valley that tracks NE and deepens rapidly as it moves from OH into southwestern Ontario. This scenario would result in a potentially significant severe wx threat to our area late Tue and Tue evening as wind fields aloft strengthen dramatically (500 mb wind speeds anywhere between 70-100 kt depending on model of choice). The associated cold front looks to cross the area around 06Z Wed with conditions turning much cooler for the second half of next week. I would say there is a high degree of uncertainty with regards to this potential event given large swings in model guidance with strength and timing of sfc and upper level features, but it bears watching as it has potential to be a high impact severe wx event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 Oh snap. I thought we might be done for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 Don't have a lot of time right now, but the 00z Euro H5 maps have a ln overall resemblance to the reanalysis maps from Sept 24 2001. Mainly in that they both have a deep trough axis cutting through the TN area and ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 Also of note, CIPS is really lit up for the 120hr mark on the 00z suite. Bullseye maybe a touch NE of some of us, but right in our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 Sept 18 2012 is showing up in CIPS. That was a day 2 hatched to day 1 moderate day for us. 10 percent tor and 45 percent wind. Lots of reports too. The SE sector does show 2001 at the number 2 analog spot. I'm officially interested. And CIPS is based on the GFS not even the Euro....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Hope we can get this to bump back 24 hrs. I'm down at Wallops next Tuesday PM for my *hopefully* first Antares launch and the upper level winds would not be good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hope we can get this to bump back 24 hrs. I'm down at Wallops next Tuesday PM for my *hopefully* first Antares launch and the upper level winds would not be good right now. Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing. I'm going to be selfish. So long as I get my Antares launch, I don't care what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm going to be selfish. So long as I get my Antares launch, I don't care what happens. Did you see the challenger documentary on Netflix? I thought it was excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 52 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Did you see the challenger documentary on Netflix? I thought it was excellent! There are several out there, what was the title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Today is the anniversary of the College Park tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 12z GFS looks deeper with the trough. Could be trending towards the Euro. Big implications if that's the case. I was surprised CIPS was so hefty given the big difference in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 CMC and ICON also look to have stepped a bit in that direction too. Lots to change but this is one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Today is the anniversary of the College Park tornado. Why then do the stories only mention 2 deaths, the 2 sisters on UMD campus and not him? Unless its a different tornado then talked about below in the links? https://www.tornadotalk.com/college-park-md-f3-tornado-september-24-2001/ https://www.baltimoresun.com/bal-te.md.storm25sep25-story.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_September_24,_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 Man...the 12z Euro looked robust at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 7 hours ago, yoda said: Why then do the stories only mention 2 deaths, the 2 sisters on UMD campus and not him? Unless its a different tornado then talked about below in the links? https://www.tornadotalk.com/college-park-md-f3-tornado-september-24-2001/ https://www.baltimoresun.com/bal-te.md.storm25sep25-story.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_September_24,_2001 He assisted at the cleanup at the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute which was heavily damaged and suffered a heart attack while driving home that evening. Who knows if he would have suffered the cardiac episode had he not been at the scene..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 I can actually say that I saw the 2001 tornado as it moved through Laurel. No one had cell phone cameras back then, so I have no pictures, but my view was very similar to this one: I'm definitely intrigued by the Tuesday potential, although fall events here are so tough to pull off due to limited instability. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 Last 8 runs of GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 GFS is slower again and appears to be more amped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 Euro is like comically slower than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 0z GFS vs 0z Euro at hr144 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 they look exactly the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 25, 2020 Author Share Posted September 25, 2020 CIPS is still highlighting this analog - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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