Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea I'll base my interest for the rest of the day on that. I don't know why we don't have more special RAOBs. Especially shocking when your CWA covers a major population area that is the nation's capital. I'd assume it's a funding thing? Wonder what the cost is to release each sonde. 18z sounding ought to be routine on ENH days or higher within the outlined area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: i hope you do get something, friend! of course i always want severe IMBY, but i like when others get it too. I know. I'm just teasing. We all want non damaging to our houses EF-2s right next to us or gusty non damaging, no loss of power storms. Its how we roll. But never get mad when a good friend gets the good stuff. More fun now cause we post pics of stuff for others to see and enjoy. That said, GIMME ALL THE ENH!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, H2O said: I know. I'm just teasing. We all want non damaging to our houses EF-2s right next to us or gusty non damaging, no loss of power storms. Its how we roll. But never get mad when a good friend gets the good stuff. More fun now cause we post pics of stuff for others to see and enjoy. That said, GIMME ALL THE ENH!!!! you can have the storms, ill take the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: you can have the storms, ill take the snow i got nothing. i rather have the snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, mappy said: any more "mappyland" thoughts? I think you're in as good of a location as any. I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued). The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Surprised no meso discussion yet. Guess they will wait to include sounding in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Kind of surprised no MCD yet from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, high risk said: I think you're in as good of a location as any. I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued). The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat. thank you!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 What time will the woostorms destroy my house? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Kind of surprised no MCD yet from SPC 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Surprised no meso discussion yet. Guess they will wait to include sounding in it. Might have a watch box drawn up and once the 18z RAOB gets finished they push it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Might have a watch box drawn up and once the 18z RAOB gets finished they push it out. can you post the RAOB sounding when its released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, mappy said: can you post the RAOB sounding when its released? The only place i can ever find them is on SPC site and it takes like 4 hours for it to show up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The only place i can ever find them is on SPC site and it takes like 4 hours for it to show up there. Univ of Wyoming has a site but it's not pretty like the SPC soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 I agree with High Risk that we're probably getting a red box. Latest SPC mesoanalysis is a favorable environment for a couple of tornadoes, but to me the bigger threat is straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 It feels like we are all expecting things to have fired up by now but the RAP on the meso page keeps saying 6pm is go time. thats like 4 hours away. 240 min. 14,400 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 It's a bit more encouraging to see plqces like MRB, FDK, and MDW getting into the upper 80s. That might put places like mappyland in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 17hrrr has a legit supercell in Fairfax to DCA this evening and another running along I70 into Wilmington, de. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's a bit more encouraging to see plqces like MRB, FDK, and MDW getting into the upper 80s. That might put places like mappyland in play. 82/74 here, with cloudy skies as a light shower passes to my north, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 17hrrr has a legit supercell in Fairfax to DCA this evening and another running along I70 into Wilmington, de. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Cumulus field starting to look agitated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there. HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh. Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming... Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort. Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn. High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Cells firing west of Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Cell NW of Capon Bridge looks interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there. HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh. Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming... Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort. Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn. High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia. you just made a bunch of weenies hearts flutter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 A boundary cooking all day makes my heart wish I'm there. Terrain? I'm used to it in East Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 A little cloudy here in Wheaton (driving) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Despite the clouds, starting to see an agitated CU field in Mt. Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: A boundary cooking all day makes my heart wish I'm there. Terrain? I'm used to it in East Tenn. Thanks for stopping in to share your thoughts. The terrain is manageable. The traffic is the big challenge around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 MCD issued... tornado watch likely... 95 percent 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 1673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 031906Z - 032100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed this afternoon as a damaging wind and tornado threat increases. DISCUSSION...A broad area of shower activity extends from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and New York amid a belt of strong mid-level flow. Areas south and east of this activity have slowly destabilized through the day with temperatures now in the upper 80s to low 90s in northern Virginia, eastern Maryland, and Delaware. In addition, the boundary layer is very moist with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This has yielded moderate MLCAPE ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg across the region despite very weak mid-level lapse rates (5 C/km per 18Z IAD RAOB). Expect at least a few strong storms to develop in the eastern periphery of the cloud shield in the next 1-2 hours as destabilization continues and deep-layer ascent increases ahead of a shortwave moving out of West Virginia. Once storms develop, they will likely become supercellular, at least initially, given 40-45 kts of effective shear (per KLWX VWP and 18Z IAD RAOB). 18Z IAD RAOB showed relatively weak flow in the lowest 1.5 km, but upstream VWP from KRLX shows strong (40 kt) flow at 1km. Once this overspreads northern Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania in a few hours, the damaging wind threat will increase and low-level shear will increase which should increase the tornado threat. The best tornado threat will likely be across northern Virginia, southern Maryland, and far southern Pennsylvania where there has been less mixing and surface winds remain southerly or south-southeasterly. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two as storm coverage/intensity increases. ..Bentley/Grams.. 09/03/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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