mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Scattered high clouds here but more blue the clouds. Steamy steamy for sure. windows all fogged up with condensation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Awful lot of clouds out there. Saw some sun on my drive into the office in the Rockville area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Very few to zero high clouds looking south and west from here, some clouds overhead but lots of blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Latest discussion from SPC- Quote ...Mid-Atlantic and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in a regime of prefrontal surface troughing and terrain-aided local lift across the western parts of the outlook areas. Activity then should move eastward while organizing in both strength and coverage, with additional development possible across a well-heated coastal plain. Damaging downdraft winds should be common, with some severe (50+ kt) gusts possible. A few tornadoes also may occur. The most-concentrated area of convective/severe potential still appears to be across a corridor from northern VA across the Delmarva Peninsula and southern NJ, in accordance with the 30%-wind/enhanced area. Much of this activity should occur in a field of height falls, and strengthening large-scale/mid-upper lift of mesoscale spatial coverage, ahead of the ejecting Ozarks/Ohio Valley vorticity field. The associated area of vertical motion has been supporting non-severe convection the past several hours across portions of southern/eastern KY, and will move over the surface trough and across a diurnally destabilizing, richly moist, weakly capped boundary layer today. As the favorable low-level air mass spreads northward up the Delaware Valley and NJ areas, a field of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher) should develop over lower elevations, amidst 40-50-kt effective shear magnitudes. Favorable speed shear will spread over the region as flow aloft intensifies, and any areas of relatively backed surface winds will yield enlarged low-level hodographs with 200-300 J/kg effective SRH. This supports an all-hazards supercell threat, with low LCL, from north-central VA eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Complete overcast here In fauquier county. Do we ever clear out in the mid Atlantic to maximize any severe potential lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Complete overcast here In fauquier county. Do we ever clear out in the mid Atlantic to maximize any severe potential lol I've got ~80 percent sun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA? In this region replace ironic with typical. These outlooks bust more often then winter events in this area. Which is good and bad. Bad being that (non weather) peeps are so accustomed to warnings that when a legitimate warning (and absolutely necessary action to protect life/property) occurs, no one will take it seriously. Boy meet wolf. I wouldn't be surprised if there is less activity today then yesterday. Does it mean we should let our guard down? NEVER! No doubt with soundings someone will score today, just don't expect it to be a widespread outbreak. EDIT: 10% TOR, especially our area, is nothing to sneeze at! Don't forget to wear a mask! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 patchy clouds with blue skies 73/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: I've got ~80 percent sun here. Same here...and very muggy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSWired Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Transitioning to sun and blue skies here in Annapolis, with dews creeping into the mid/high 70s: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 77/74 here with sun powering through the cloud deck. Tropical feeling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA? I wouldn’t complain, the storm yesterday disintegrated and went south as well. Hopefully I’m just far enough north to get a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Full sun with only some high cirrus in Arlington. Looks like we checked off one of more common fails for sever here so we are off to a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Full sun with only some high cirrus in Arlington. Looks like we checked off one of more common fails for sever here so we are off to a good start. 84.1 here just a bit west of you. Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon. Should be transient, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 84.1 here just a bit west of you. Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon. Should be transient, though. Can confirm is gross out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Lot of the short term guidance hitting the QLCS stuff vs. Tornado risk now. Wouldn't shock my if the afternoon update drops the 10%TOR but keeps the 30% WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 12k NAM is discrete cell galore. The HRRR has slightly more linear storms and CAPE isn't too bad although I'd prefer higher CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Mix of sun and clouds. Blob of clouds on satellite so if that blows off soon then can see sun's out, guns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Raining and feels like Kauai outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Raining and feels like Kauai outside. DP at my house in Currituck North Carolina is 82. It's awful. Hopefully you guys fare well today and don't get any real heavy storm damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Completely covered in thick clouds over here now. No sun coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Mrs.J said: Completely covered in thick clouds over here now. No sun coming through. Same in Gaithersburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Different story here in Goldsboro. Near full sun and a cumulus cloud or two is starting to show up. Perfect conditions for destabilization. Winds light and variable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 It’s full sun in Baltimore and has been for about an hour. Should soup things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things. I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat. There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me. We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 clouds have returned, but satellite shows clearing to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, high risk said: I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat. There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me. We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection. QLCS tornadoes worry me more than stand alone supercell tornadoes. QLCS are harder to predict as they can quickly spin up and do a bit of damage before dying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Same in Gaithersburg Had a quick passing shower sun starting to come back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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