high risk Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Today is looking super lame at least at the current moment. More eggs into the tomorrow basket perhaps. Yeah, I'm a bit surprised, and I think that SPC is too. Latest HRRR still suggests that the convection firing near the I-81 corridor will still become a bigger deal further east in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Note the 5pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Yeah, I'm a bit surprised, and I think that SPC is too. Latest HRRR still suggests that the convection firing near the I-81 corridor will still become a bigger deal further east in a few hours. There's probably enough moisture to support a threat for storms (some strong maybe) past sunset. For the superstitious/non-scientific side of us - this could bode well for our odds to see stronger storms tomorrow. We just can't seem to string multiple days together - the area of focus always shifts a little bit day to day - even when it seems like we'll be bullseyed for days on days. I personally thought that earlier mesoscale discussion was VERY high probs for something that had not even developed yet - and didn't look insanely good on modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: There's probably enough moisture to support a threat for storms (some strong maybe) past sunset. For the superstitious/non-scientific side of us - this could bode well for our odds to see stronger storms tomorrow. We just can't seem to string multiple days together - the area of focus always shifts a little bit day to day - even when it seems like we'll be bullseyed for days on days. I personally thought that earlier mesoscale discussion was VERY high probs for something that had not even developed yet - and didn't look insanely good on modeling. SPC Mesoanalysis shows the supercell composite here increasing to 8 here over the next couple of hours. Given that and most of the CAMs showing convection developing by now, I'm assuming that's why they went with such high watch probs. I'd think that the convection to the west should do better as it moves east into the better environment, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Sun is out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Squally type line going through the Hagerstown area now. We'll probably get rained on today. Let's do it for tomorrow woo storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Nice little bowing line segment about to go through the Thurmont area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 "Tornado Possible" wording is in the STW message for the Frederick area storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Those are some low probs for that watch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 That radar is interesting up there in Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 So the box is out...... but it's BLUE. I guess I'm not surprised (that it's not a red box) given the linear evolution, but the shear parameters argue that a few embedded mesos are quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Starting to hear a bit of thunder in the distance. That was some of the heaviest rain I've had here in Smithsburg this summer with that thin line of storms. Only lasted about 15 minutes or so but was quite the tropical downpour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Tree down on I-70 WB at mile marker 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Well that line got more exciting didn’t it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Interesting circulation near New Windsor, Carroll County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I saw that cell develop right north of me and watched it move towards New Windsor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Signs of outflow boundary on the part of the line heading into MoCo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Moco just got warned, also with "possible tornado" language, line from the west looks to be holding together for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Line certainly improving as it moves east. .37” here. Torrential rain....minimal wind and a few rumbles. Seemed more tropical than thunder buster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 4 hours ago, JakkelWx said: I need everybody in D.C and the Delmarva to buy an industrial fan and strap it to a helicopter, and turn them all on at once so we can get a D2 MOD. Here's my contribution! And look at that, some showers showing up now with maybe a bit of Zeus'ing going on! Speaking of fans, we do have a bigass fan, 18' in the main hangar. Had to run it nearly WOT due to humidity! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 18z HRDRPS remains outstanding for the area tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 18z HRDRPS remains outstanding for the area tomorrow. That thing owes me a lot of snow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Nasty-looking bow heading into Clarksburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Yeah looking pretty bow'y, any reports from that guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Depending on how long things stay discreet tomorrow, could be some pretty impressive supercells by Mid Atlantic standards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 53 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Nasty-looking bow heading into Clarksburg area. 36 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Yeah looking pretty bow'y, any reports from that guy? Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Decent T&L, picked up .6” of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 404, severe not found. We were in a yellow box. Torrential downpours, max wind 18 mph, some lightning and thunder. Heavy thundershower is what we call it. Tomorrow is the 3rd ENH for this area so far this year? Can you call drizzle and fog enhanced? Oh the moss is growing on three sides of our barn. Now that is definitely enhanced! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth. Reflectivity looked great in that bow shape - but velocity scans were consistently underwhelming. I was struggling to find anything of severe magnitude even on the TDWRs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Very sub-severe in Columbia. Brief heavy rain and some thunder. A few gusts that probably exceeded 20mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now