nw baltimore wx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Lots of thunder and some sprinkles. Muggy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Pouring. Plenty of thunder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Some decent training setting up along the Route 26 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 Outflow also coming south from the MoCo/HoCo line now. May be some new development where the boundary coming SE from Frederick meets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Lost power briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 A snippet from the updated AFD from Mt Holly- Hot and humid into the early evening hours ahead of an approaching shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania will continue to track east, and additional storms will fire up ahead of that main area. Temperatures remain in the 80s to around 90 with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, surface-based CAPE values are up around 2000 J/kg across Delmarva and from 1500-2000 J/kg across southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. Across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, DCAPE values are up around 1000 J/kg. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is minimal, generally around 25 kt, but up to 40 kt across far northern New Jersey. Finally, PWATs are from 1.5- 2.0 inches. Thunderstorms moving into the unstable airmass, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, will become strong to severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain the most likely impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr has action all through to well after midnight With radar showing a lot of activity forming over WV, indicative of strong forcing that will overspread our area over the next few hours, the scenario of multiple rounds certainly seems plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 The first line deked to the north and essentially skipped here. The trailing line looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 @high risk promised me storms. He better not fail me or I will gnash teeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 First line was a 5 minute gusty shower. Let’s see if anything comes from this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 NAM now seems focused on tonight only. Really nothing tomorrow but a few early showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 If the NAM is correct, Saint Michaels may be close to 20" for the month by tomorrow. Sitting at 15.62" currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Incoming. Don’t want any hail though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Absolutely crushed in Arlington. Saw sign blow over and trees were bending with torrential rain falling sideways. Worst storm I've seen in years probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Radar and HRRR are both very meh the rest of the night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Radar and HRRR are both very meh the rest of the night. F it! It’s over. Let’s aim for a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: Radar and HRRR are both very meh the rest of the night. Next!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Just got power back. It was a ridiculously weak storm to knock out power for over six hours but there it is. Another 17 gallons of diesel. Peak wind speed 42.9 mph. Meh indeed! This is probably a fire drill for what is to come tropical wise. About six minutes before power went out... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Do these odd persistent thunderstorms tonight portend anything for Laura? Could this line tonight be a demarcation line of path tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Slight risk today. From the Mount Holly AFD this morning- With sufficient CAPE and fairly strong shear expected (30-40 kt 0-6 km bulk wind difference) along with alarmingly high values of storm- relative helicity (150+ J/kg), I am concerned storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes. As alluded to, the threat is conditional on the degree of instability that develops, but the tropical nature of the vertical profiles suggests to me that CAPE will need not be that large to promote an environment favorable for organized/rotating storms. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms today across the entire region, and this seems reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Oh Lord, we have another tornado coming in this direction! This is getting real old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 It looks to have lifted. The warning is canceled. Thank God. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 MRGL risk tomorrow for wind... SLGT risk for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Day 3 SLGT, 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 6 hours ago, yoda said: MRGL risk tomorrow for wind... SLGT risk for Thursday FWIW, the NAM nest soundings look way better for Wednesday, both in terms of shear and instability, and the simulated radar isn't bad. HRRR looks pretty good too, and all of the CAMs suggest storms scattered through the area late Wednesday. If I wanted to go into weenie mode, I'd note some low-level curvature in the hodographs..... Thursday has a better shortwave. For now, the Thursday soundings in the NAM nest lack instability, but deep-layer shear is there, and the event certainly has potential too. But I'm intrigued by what I'm seeing for the first event and would suggest that we could get a day 2 SLGT for Wednesday in the early afternoon SPC update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Talk about a "cute lil slight" for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 To expand on my interest in tomorrow, this is a pretty good look (minus the warm temps around 750 mb and weak winds in the layer just above): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: To expand on my interest in tomorrow, this is a pretty good look (minus the warm temps around 750 mb and weak winds in the layer just above): That does look like a pretty good sounding for an isolated brief tornado or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, high risk said: To expand on my interest in tomorrow, this is a pretty good look (minus the warm temps around 750 mb and weak winds in the layer just above): i like what i see on the itty bitty radar sim for my back yard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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