high risk Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol and now 16z hrrr looks like crap time-lagged HRRR output is your friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 There’s certainly gonna be enough fuel. Plenty of sunshine now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 Radar trajectory of the stuff up in PA looks decent for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Complete turd. Typical MD "severe". The best ones come out of nowhere, lots of times we're not even marginal risk LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Afternoon AFD from LWX sounds good A cold front associated with the upper-level trough will approach this afternoon before moving into the region tonight. A westerly flow around the subtropical high has ushered in hot and humid conditions. The heat and humidity has led to an unstable atmosphere. Latest guidance shows around 1500-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE developing overhead. Shortwave energy moving through Pennsylvania along with a surface trough out ahead of the cold front will pass through the area late this afternoon into this evening (generally between 4 PM and 9 PM from northwest to southeast). A downsloping westerly flow ahead of this system does diminish confidence some regarding convection. However, there is a bit of a theta-e ridge at the low-levels ahead of the cold front that will be advecting into the area ahead of the surface trough. Also, weak convergence with the surface trough and boundaries from convection upstream should be enough to cause scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during this time. Latest hires guidance has trended for this to occur as well, and that makes sense given the increasing activity upstream over Pennsylvania. There is also a chance for a bowing segment with more widespread wind damage during this time. This is because DCAPE will be quite high (1000-1500 J/KG), low-level lapse rates will be steep, and there will be a stronger flow aloft. The best chance for this to occur may be where CAPE is highest and there is less of an influence from the downsloping flow (over the Washington/Baltimore Metro areas into southern MD and the Virginia Piedmont). The flood threat appears to be low due to faster storm motion. However, should a bowing segment develop, there may be a localized flash flood threat from training convection on either side of the line. Convection should diminish behind this system later this evening and overnight. Dry air advection should keep any fog limited in coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 80% chance of a T'storm watch shortly: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1570.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Quote 80% chance of a T'storm watch shortly: Which means it's going to be a bust. Woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Watch posted. Radar doesn’t look thrilling to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Watch posted. Radar doesn’t look thrilling to me. Nothing does. Radar, models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Nothing does. Radar, models.... Let's see what happens as the front gets south of the Catoctins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Multiple warnings in western MD (too bad I'm home in Arlington....) and WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Looks like west of I-270 is the place to be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like west of I-270 is the place to be today. hard to argue with this right now. interesting that it's the opposite of what the earlier CAMs showed (and had SPC focus the ENH east of 270.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Storms firing in SE PA are going to better organize and I'll likely get something this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Storms firing in SE PA are going to better organize and I'll likely get something this evening Pretty good stuff here from Mt Holly- At 250 mb a subtropical jet was noted around KWAL with another ~90 kt speed max located over western Ontario. The subtropical jet is forecast to re-orient and center over the NC/ VA border. This would place the DELMARVA in a Left Front Quadrant (LFQ) or under upper level divergence. The northern stream jet is forecast to propagate east through the base of the trough axis and center over northern NJ. This would place central and southern NJ in a Right Rear Quadrant (RRQ), or upper level divergence. The jet structure isn`t completely coupled, but some interaction appears likely. At 500 mb strong height falls are occurring over central Quebec (~100 m) with mostly weak height falls across central NJ (~30 m). The overall idea is for this wave to continue to amplify as it digs southeast. The primary DCVA will be located over New England, and the northern Mid- Atlantic States. At 700 mb a weak wave was noted across the Great Lakes region and is forecast to continue to dive southeast towards WV and VA. Overall this wave feature appears to track too far south and west of the region to affect our area. Earlier this morning there was some precipitation that tried to move into the region from the west, but quickly fell apart. This has allowed for the entire CWA to be under mostly full sun for the entire day. As a result the entire area has destabilized, with the greatest destabilization being across the DELMARVA with ML CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A surface cold front is currently located across west/central NY into western PA and is heading southeast. The orientation of the cold front will slowly transition from SW/NE to more of a W/E orientation. Forecast soundings continue to advertise mostly unidirectional tropospheric flow with effective bulk shear values around 25 kts. The latest 18z KWAL sounding was slightly different than initially expected with a descent amount of dry air in the 300/500 MB layer. Lapse rates in the 500 to 700 mb layer were around 6.6 degrees C though, with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. The general idea is for convection currently in central PA to continue to head southeast towards MD and the DELMARVA. The anvil storm relative flow vectors with these storms is easterly, and this can clearly be seen on visible. As the anvil debris continues to spread east, cold pool reinforcement and amalgamations appear likely. This means the convection will likely continue to take on a more linear appearance. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 This hobby sucks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, mappy said: This hobby sucks Just wait till winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Looks like about to get hopping here in the next few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Radar looks super lame for central MD. Oh well.. i don't need anymore rain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Laura will save the day. Remnants will track along the Mason Dixon line and the DMV will get about 70 EFOs and EF1s out of it over the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just wait till winter. Hahaha I’m actually a bit excited about it. I’ll be home through January, won’t miss a flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 20 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today I have a hard time getting excited about severe. I've said it many times. I've seen actual severe weather here like twice in my 41 years. We do better with slow moving flooders with lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 22 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today Storms dropping southward to the east, storms dropping southward to the west... nada in between. Mostly what the latest runs of the mesos were advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 42 minutes ago, mappy said: Hahaha I’m actually a bit excited about it. I’ll be home through January, won’t miss a flake! Yeah you probably won’t miss a flake. That is true. It’s just how we roll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today When have we seen this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Had a cell go up to my north came through here with blowing rain and some thunder and lightning. Got .22" in about 5 min as it moved out pretty quick to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Too much inverted V. This will probably congeal nicely on the lower eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 The Sterling forecast discussion said that the best opportunity for severe weather would likely be DC/Baltimore and south/eastward across Delmarva/southern MD and central VA. More unstable and time for storms to organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Might get clipped a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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