r3w Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 Thanks, I lucked out that night. Crazy how many power flashes there were, most of them caused the power to go out for a few min at the pier I was at...that unnatural blue light always feels ominous. The cam is an old Droid Turbo, it has a decent 4K CMOS camera, pretty water-resistant...unfortunately it creates rolling shutter distortion with lightning. I've used it for 7 years & it's held up, but the battery is going bad, it actually powered-off during that storm & corrupted about 90% of the raw video! Luckily I was able to have it repaired. I need to upgrade before next spring, something that can film lightning without distorting it so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 What a great light show last night! And a soaking rain. The video below shows the lightning from the cluster over Cecil Co. and western DE. The red dot in this radarscope screen capture is where the camera is: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 6z NAM nest actually looks okay for the DC area later today. I'm sure we'll see some storms pop - we'll see who gets lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 HRDRPS rocks DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Seems to be some shear today. Some good wind gusts up in Timonium, actually makes it feel bearable out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Seems to be some shear today. Some good wind gusts up in Timonium, actually makes it feel bearable out here actually, the deep layer shear needed for an organized severe threat is overall lacking today, which explains the lack of a slight risk. that said, I do think we'll see a few isolated severe warnings later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Seems to be some shear today. Some good wind gusts up in Timonium, actually makes it feel bearable out here Important to remember that surface wind doesn't necessarily indicate what's going on higher up...and vice versa I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 29, 2020 Author Share Posted July 29, 2020 SPC and the GFS seem to like Sunday afternoon. It looks like the best threat/parameters may reside to our north, but we are at least close enough to monitor now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: SPC and the GFS seem to like Sunday afternoon. It looks like the best threat/parameters may reside to our north, but we are at least close enough to monitor now. HM spoke about this potential yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 29, 2020 Author Share Posted July 29, 2020 Just now, frd said: HM spoke about this potential yesterday. I think we might end up being just a BIT too far south for the meat and potatoes. But we'll continue to monitor. Maybe it shifts around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 CIPS is lit up for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 9 hours ago, Kmlwx said: CIPS is lit up for Sunday. ant woofing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Don't worry everyone - we'll find a way to get nothing from the Sunday severe and then whiff on Isaias. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 I apologize I usually look into events, is Sunday a potential severe weather outbreak that.can produce tornadoes and hail greater than we are accustomed to? I saw SPC write up that said the focus should go PA and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: I apologize I usually look into events, is Sunday a potential severe weather outbreak that.can produce tornadoes and hail greater than we are accustomed to? I saw SPC write up that said the focus should go PA and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Thanks...sounds like an event where someone will get rocked. Petersburg VA.F4 tornado and southern VA outbreak/largest tornado outbreak in VA prior to Ivan in September 2004 happened August 6 1993. We shall see how this event progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 The trend has definitely been to continue favoring north of us for Sunday's potential severe event. Marginal risk from SPC - but honestly...you can even see in their map and discussion how the threat is north of us. Not sure we'll get a win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 The latest NAM sort of peaks our instability too early in the day on Sunday. It has a swath of good CAPE over the area around 12z before it shifts north and east of the area. We still have instability of course, but it demonstrates that the best alignment of parameters is likely (at least for now) to be to the north and east. This is what SPC is showing in the area outlined in the marginal risk. HM on Twitter (posted above) indicated VA northward - but I'd be a lot more cautious about including the DC area in that right now. I think it could yield some interesting storms - but any "significant severe" risk is likely to not be in our backyards. Mappy is well positioned I suppose. Of course, caveats apply like it being the NAM at range - and it's just now coming into view of the NAM nest. However, GFS has shown similar solutions. Was hoping for a sneaky event to slide in while we all watch Isaias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 Sneaky sneaky - Slight risk posted for areas from DC and to the west for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Sneaky sneaky - Slight risk posted for areas from DC and to the west for tomorrow. I have to admit that I wasn't paying close attention to tomorrow, but the HRRR and the Hi-Res Windows all some some impressive cells across northern VA later Saturday. Wind profiles have some definite directional shear, although there is probably too much weakness in the speeds in the lower levels to have a robust TOR threat. Slight risk seems completely justified to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: I have to admit that I wasn't paying close attention to tomorrow, but the HRRR and the Hi-Res Windows all some some impressive cells across northern VA later Saturday. Wind profiles have some definite directional shear, although there is probably too much weakness in the speeds in the lower levels to have a robust TOR threat. Slight risk seems completely justified to me. So much attention being given to Isaias that it was beginning to look like I was talking to myself in here - Even @yoda was gone! What do you think for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: So much attention being given to Isaias that it was beginning to look like I was talking to myself in here - Even @yoda was gone! What do you think for Sunday? I'm not writing it off, but I'm not very excited right now. Far more interested in a potential PRE on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 The long range 18z HRRR crushes La Plata... That thing is a beast of a cell on the model - and a long tracker too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 31, 2020 Share Posted July 31, 2020 Wonderful, LaPlata gets two major cells on that picture, one overhead and another 2 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: Wonderful, LaPlata gets two major cells on that picture, one overhead and another 2 hours out The good news is that it's the HRRR at extremely long ranges. The bad news is...well...you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 1, 2020 Author Share Posted August 1, 2020 The ARW and ARW2 both have that same supercellular looking thing for NoVA and the La Plata area. HRDRPS is pretty nice for DC and a swath of the area tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 new day 1 graphic with disco... 2/5/15 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible later today from parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Mid Atlantic. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts. A few gusty storms may also be noted across the southern Rockies. ...OH/TN Valley to Mid Atlantic... Large-scale height fields are not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period; although, a short-wave trough will advance slowly east across the OH/TN Valley period during the over night hours. In advance of the short wave, a weak surface low is forecast to track along the OH River from western KY into southwest OH by early evening. This feature will aid low-level convergence necessary for potentially robust convection. Latest model guidance suggests 30-35kt of 500mb flow will translate across middle TN into WV by peak heating. 850mb flow is also expected to increase along this corridor which will enhance wind profiles for potential storm organization. Models are not too aggressive destabilizing this region but some surface heating is expected south of a weak warm front as it advances north, ultimately draping itself across central OH-northern WV-northern VA by 02/00z. This warm-frontal corridor may locally enhance the prospect for a few supercells, and perhaps one or two tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging winds could accompany scattered thunderstorms that develop across this region. Convective temperatures should be breached fairly early (between 17-19z) and subsequent storm mergers and multi-cell clusters appear possible, in addition to a few supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 FWIW, MRGL risk for Sunday and Monday as well from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2020 Share Posted August 1, 2020 Since Day 2 (Sunday) looks meh... here's Day 3 (Monday) ...Portions of the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic... A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to remain in place from parts of the Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic through the period. As rich low-level moisture streams back into the region in advance of T.C. Isaias, moderate instability may redevelop by afternoon prior to the development of increasingly widespread convection by Monday afternoon/evening. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support the potential for some organized convection, with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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