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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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On 7/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, Scraff said:

I am practically around the corner from you, but just a mile or two made a difference for us. I’m straddling that green and yellow. I hope all of Eastern Hoco gets some reds today though. B)

While the exciting stuff has been East of 95, most areas west are bone dry. I’m talking grass full brown. With the exception of something tropical, majority of the area looks like a hot and dry summer. 

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Oof, that same night on the 7th I was being sulky on here because it seemed the storms wouldn't make it to Southern MD...it actually ended up being a decent night of storms.
Glanced at GRLevel3 just in time to run out & watch for a while.

 

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Mount Holly AFD on the severe threat for Wed-

Kind of a mixed bag in terms of environmental parameters. Temperatures will no doubt be on the hot side, but MLCAPE values are somewhat of a question mark due to uncertainty in how much mixing will occur. While MLCAPE will certainly be sufficient for convection, there is disagreement on whether values will be "good" or "great". If dew points mix down into the 60s, convection may struggle to develop or weaken as it approaches, as some of the CAMs suggest. However, if dew points remain in the 70s, instability will be greater. So mesoanalysis with regards to the dew points will be important. In terms of shear, deep layer flow will increase as the shortwave approaches. Bulk shear has trended down a bit, and may only be in the range of 25 to 30 kt, whereas yesterday 35 kt or slightly greater looked achievable. SRH parameters also do not look as impressive, with shear profiles looking increasingly unidirectional, not to mention the generally weak low level flow. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, it is a low risk, and the better chance for that will probably be to our north where SRH is better. Given warm low levels, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km), and likelihood for linear convective organization, severe hail is also a fairly low risk. So the main hazard is going to be damaging wind. Shear values, while not great, should be sufficient for some organized multicell convection, with some of the CAMs suggesting an MCS is possible. Difficult to pin down where exactly the greatest threat is, with still a fairly wide spread in CAM solutions, hence the continued broad-brushed slight risk area in the SWODY2. Would generally favor areas further west and south (E PA and Delmarva) for the greatest chance of severe weather since they should have the best instability and since diurnal timing looks most favorable there, but a risk exists everywhere.

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

SLGT risk for severe today... damaging winds look to be biggest threat 

Are they making it SLGT due to the rain we’re still having from this system, or more storms in the afternoon?

edit: nevermind, read the text thingy.

The thunder lasted forever, and was very loud.

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