Baltimorewx Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Well that was weak sauce. Barely even getting any rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Well.. they are being issued per spotters... but interesting warnings... @high risk BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1026 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Washington County in north central Maryland... East central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... North central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Central Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 1100 PM EST. * At 1026 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Claylick to 11 miles southeast of Romney, moving east at 75 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency management. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hagerstown, Winchester, Martinsburg, Thurmont, Charles Town, Emmitsburg, Romney, Shepherdstown, Hancock, Paw Paw, Municipal Stadium, Robinwood, Brunswick, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Berryville, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Inwood and Paramount-Long Meadow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1028 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Southern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Southern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... North central Page County in northwestern Virginia... The southwestern City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Southeastern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 1115 PM EST. * At 1028 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 11 miles southwest of Romney to 6 miles north of Upper Tract, moving southeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Front Royal, Strasburg, Woodstock, Moorefield, Petersburg, Millwood Pike, Rough Run, Berryville, Broadway, Timberville, Mount Jackson, Stephens City, Wardensville, Basye-Bryce Mountain, Upper Tract, Mathias, Star Tannery, New Market and Middletown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 This line is producing. I've seen a few events like this over the years, with a fast-moving line of low-topped showers requiring warnings. Will be interesting to see how far southeast they survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: This line is producing. I've seen a few events like this over the years, with a fast-moving line of low-topped showers requiring warnings. Will be interesting to see how far southeast they survive. Doesn't look like HRRR really had this "line" looking back at the 01z/02z run... kinda intriguing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Doesn't look like HRRR really had this "line" looking back at the 01z/02z run... kinda intriguing though There are some small hints of it in the previous HRRR runs, but it's overall really tough for a model to get this, as it has to get the initial forcing and cold pool dynamics. Forecast soundings show a strengthening unidirectional wind profile and some downdraft cape...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Line is closing in on me. Reports of 68 mph wind gust in Hagerstown by NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Southern part of the line just had the warning cancelled by LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Mrs.J said: Line is closing in on me. Reports of 68 mph wind gust in Hagerstown by NWS BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1054 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... East central Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 1130 PM EST. * At 1054 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Carroll Valley to 6 miles west of Charles Town, moving east at 70 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Westminster, Damascus, Thurmont, Charles Town, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Shepherdstown, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, Robinwood, Taneytown, Brunswick, Walkersville, Manchester, Ranson, Boonsboro, Smithsburg and Braddock Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1054 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1048 PM TSTM WND GST HAGERSTOWN RGNL ARPT 39.71N 77.73W 03/03/2020 M68 MPH WASHINGTON MD ASOS && EVENT NUMBER LWX2000782 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 I am in the Ballenger Creek area. Made my husband get the bird feeder down don’t want it whipping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Holy wind and rain! You can hear it howling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 CWG article about last night quote tweets me! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 The Tennessee tornado becomes the first violent tornado of the year in the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 13 hours ago, George BM said: The Tennessee tornado becomes the first violent tornado of the year in the US. fun fact March 3 of 2019 also had an EF4 tornado kill people. in Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 4 hours ago, mappy said: fun fact March 3 of 2019 also had an EF4 tornado kill people. in Alabama. Yeah. March 3rd is getting a tornadic streak lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Maybe something to look forward to next week? From the Day 4-8 SPC OTLK: Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2020 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some combination of weak large-scale forcing for ascent and lack of deep boundary layer moisture return inland of the Gulf coast seems likely to result in continuing low convective potential across much of the U.S. through at least the middle of next week. Medium-range models generally suggest that a significant mid-level low, initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, will only slowly progress into the Southwest next Tuesday and Wednesday, before accelerating across and east-northeast of the southern Rockies late next week. It may undergo considerable deformation as it does, but at least some phasing with a northern branch perturbation appears possible, and models suggest that this could support significant surface cyclogenesis from the central Plains through the Great Lakes and Quebec next Thursday and Friday. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening of wind fields and shear could contribute to an environment conducive to organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, aside from the extended time frame, a number of uncertainties linger, including synoptic and sub-synoptic developments that may impact destabilization, timing of the most significant thunderstorm development, and area of greatest impact, which could be anywhere from the southern Plains through the Appalachians and parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic Coast region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 SPC has us mentioned in the 1730 DAY 2 OTLK for maybe some gusty winds tomorrow afternoon... no MRGL, just general FWIW ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... Bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday along and ahead of the eastward advancing cold front. Low level moisture will remain modest, with surface dewpoints as high as the low to mid-50s possible. Surface heating also is expected to be limited by cloud cover, with temperatures warming into the 50s to low 60s. As a result, surface-based instability is expected to be quite limited, generally less than 250 J/kg. However, southwesterly wind just above the surface will be quite strong, with 40+ kt winds forecast as low as 925 mb. If pockets of stronger heating occur, resulting in areas of steeper low-level lapse rates, sporadic, locally strong gusts could accompany these bands of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Looks like our first chance in a while of some thunderstorms, maybe even an isolated severe threat is on Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 55 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like our first chance in a while of some thunderstorms, maybe even an isolated severe threat is on Sunday afternoon Now this is not for our region (SW of Chicago)... AND it's just one run from last night's 0z NAM at range but... it's not too often that you see 100+ knot EBWD with 1,000+ J/kg MLCAPE. (Also, please ignore the fact that I accidentally called these files as the 3kNAM... the images below are actually from the lower-res NAM) The following is just me thinking out loud. I'm not making assumptions about the severe threat over yonder. I wonder if 1,500+ J/kg mlcape and LIs of -5 to -6 would be enough instability for storms to not get ripped apart by this kind of shear verbatim (Is CAPE fat enough?). Yeah 1,500 J/kg mlcape is not all that weak but... that shear though... Of course I'm not trying to take away from the high-ceiling that storms will have should they take advantage of their environment. @high risk @csnavywx thoughts on this? Also I realize now that I have a problem with using too many ellipses and parentheses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 53 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like our first chance in a while of some thunderstorms, maybe even an isolated severe threat is on Sunday afternoon I, um, all things being equal, given how much food is in various freezers and the quarantine situation many are dealing with, really don’t want severe storms to be a thing this spring. Need power. Etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 13 hours ago, George BM said: Now this is not for our region (SW of Chicago)... AND it's just one run from last night's 0z NAM at range but... it's not too often that you see 100+ knot EBWD with 1,000+ J/kg MLCAPE. (Also, please ignore the fact that I accidentally called these files as the 3kNAM... the images below are actually from the lower-res NAM) The following is just me thinking out loud. I'm not making assumptions about the severe threat over yonder. I wonder if 1,500+ J/kg mlcape and LIs of -5 to -6 would be enough instability for storms to not get ripped apart by this kind of shear verbatim (Is CAPE fat enough?). Yeah 1,500 J/kg mlcape is not all that weak but... that shear though... Of course I'm not trying to take away from the high-ceiling that storms will have should they take advantage of their environment. @high risk @csnavywx thoughts on this? Also I realize now that I have a problem with using too many ellipses and parentheses. 1500 is probably enough cape to handle that kind of instability, especially given that it's not "tall, skinny" cape, and there is enough low-level instability for good parcel accelerations. The forecasted soundings keep getting better, and SPC now has a day 2 MDT which looks justified. Still questions about evolution of elevated convection earlier in the day and resulting impact on how far north the warm front can get, but areas just south of wherever the warm front ends up look primed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 for us on Sunday, right now the forecast soundings look terrible with limited instability and weak low level flow. It's also unclear whether the cool air will erode over the northeastern half of this subforum. Gonna need a huge improvement in the setup to give us anything of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, high risk said: 1500 is probably enough cape to handle that kind of instability, especially given that it's not "tall, skinny" cape, and there is enough low-level instability for good parcel accelerations. The forecasted soundings keep getting better, and SPC now has a day 2 MDT which looks justified. Still questions about evolution of elevated convection earlier in the day and resulting impact on how far north the warm front can get, but areas just south of wherever the warm front ends up look primed. Thank for the reply. Yeah the latest long-range HRRR has some loltastic soundings. I mean check out this uncontaminated sounding below. I mean 3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE, LI near -10 with effective bulk-shear around 100kts. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, George BM said: Thank for the reply. Yeah the latest long-range HRRR has some loltastic soundings. I mean check out this uncontaminated sounding below. I mean 3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE, LI near -10 with effective bulk-shear around 100kts. Lol! wow! low-level directional shear is lacking a bit, but the low LCLs and impressive low-level cape would make that a volatile environment. Even if we chop off a few degrees from the T and Td, it's still scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1730 SPC OTLK from day 2 has all of us in 2/5/5... mentions supercells with all hazards possible but conditional threat... here is the disco for our region: ...Mid-Atlantic... Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain fairly weak Sunday across the Mid-Atlantic. However, some modest mid-level height falls should overspread this region by Sunday afternoon. Latest model guidance also suggests the possibility of a weak, secondary surface low developing over MD and vicinity through the day. More robust diurnal heating is expected across this region, and weak to potentially moderate instability (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) should develop along/south of a surface warm front that will likely be located across parts of central/eastern PA into southern/central NJ. Effective bulk shear of 50-70+ kt would easily support supercells, with all severe hazards possible. The main uncertainty is whether any storms will form along/ahead of the cold front. Latest guidance shows substantial variability regarding overall convective coverage across this region. For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk eastward across much of the Mid-Atlantic to account for this somewhat conditional potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Afternoon AFD from LWX: .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will start with ample low clouds and fog attempting to lift. How quickly it does so may be the key to the forecast. Believe there will be a sharp inversion, with a warm nose which could be as warm as 19C near 925 mb. A cold front will approach during the day, and cross the region during the afternoon, during peak heating (18-00 UTC). There will be ample shear across the region. Instability will be the question. If the wedge holds, then instability will be minimal and the front would either come through dry or as a few showers (with perhaps an elevated rumble of thunder). But, if the wedge does manage to mix out, then MUCAPE may exceed 1000 j/kg. Given the other ingredients in place, that would be supportive of robust thunderstorms. There are guidance members on each side of the fence. After collaboration with SPC, decided that the conditional threat great enough to at least mention somehow...hence Marginal Risk of severe. Am maintaining a chance of precip crossing the area in the database, with a slight chance of thunder. It may be that both solutions are correct; ie: cool/stable air across northern Maryland while moist/unstable air present across central Virginia and southern Maryland. Will be monitoring later cycles to discern these details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 @high risk Pretty decent sounding from the 18z NAM for 21z tomorrow at KIAD, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 DCA sounding at 21z tomorrow per 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 I've been on COVID monitoring for days/weeks now. This one kind of crept up on me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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