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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

LWX says it's pretty conditional. Coverage looks sparse on the NAM nest. 

SPC Day 1 0600 OTLK has N MD in SLGT including Baltimore metro... SLGT risk extends southward into C MD and extreme N VA... MRGL risk as far south as EZF

5% hail and 15% wind in SLGT... 5% hail and 5% wind in MRGL... 2% TOR for BWI to Westminster and NE MD

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
DCC001-MDC003-031-033-272145-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0148.200627T2100Z-200627T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  The northeastern District of Columbia...
  West central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Northern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 459 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Goddard to North Chevy Chase, moving east at 20
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bethesda, Bowie, College Park, Crofton, Greenbelt, Langley Park,
  Beltsville, Bladensburg, University of Maryland, Fedex Field,
  Gallaudet University, Fort Totten, RFK Stadium, Landover,
  Hyattsville, Takoma Park, East Riverdale, Adelphi, Kemp Mill and
  New Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 7657 3888 7696 3901 7715 3905 7675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 281DEG 18KT 3901 7681 3900 7708

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
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Those storms a bit ago looked nice on radar. Us in Southern MD have had very little luck with healthy storms so far this season...I assume its related to the waters stabilizing the environment. May have to start driving farther out to watch storms.

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If that particular storm holds intensity and the same direction - it might clip me here near Arundel Mills. I should think about getting in the car and heading a bit east if it holds, maybe. If nothing else maybe a good photo op. 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If that particular storm holds intensity and the same direction - it might clip me here near Arundel Mills. I should think about getting in the car and heading a bit east if it holds, maybe. If nothing else maybe a good photo op. 

I’m just west of you on the Elkridge/Columbia line. Wondering if this hits me head on at some point. I might consider jumping in the car though to get some good pictures too.

 

eta: looking at radar, that storm is in no hurry to go anywhere fast. I could see it easily missing east at this point. 

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’m just west of you on the Elkridge/Columbia line. Wondering if this hits me head on at some point. I might consider jumping in the car though to get some good pictures too. 

I just went out my front door and looked NE. I think it's a bit close to get anything good - you can definitely see the storm, but it's just messy looking. Going to have to see if it holds organization or if it collapses at some point. I'd bet on the collapse with some outflow rushing out - but the question is when. It's  in an area that did have a bit more shear than areas to the south of DC - so it's got that going for it. Also no shortage of CAPE. I think if it holds together it may stay just east of me...

 

ETA: Echo tops have come down from their peak as well. And if you loop that product - it argues for it to be a bit east of you and me. 

ETAv2: VIL product looped shows it had a good trajectory for us maybe - but has acquired a bit more southerly component more recently. We need the westerly motion to resume. 

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21 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Could be a big day for thunderstorms over here on both the NAM and the latest HRRR runs. SBCAPE values of 5500 - 6000 J/kg (something I have not seen in a very long time). Would be an absolute bummer to waste that much CAPE today.

Without shear to move things along, it's going to be just pulsers with rogue wet microbursts.

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12z NAM nest really blows up a complex for NE MD, areas directly adjacent to the bay, and the Eastern Shore. Misses DC verbatim - but would make things interesting at least. Could be some good distant storm photos from the DC area. Of course I picked to work out of Silver Spring today instead of Arundel Mills. 

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HRRR is pretty darn similar with regards to sim reflectivity. 

Somebody EAST of a line running from like Shrewsbury, PA to Largo, MD is going to get a nice storm this afternoon. NAM nest even has a really good stripe of UD helicity along the MD/DE border. 

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17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12z NAM nest really blows up a complex for NE MD, areas directly adjacent to the bay, and the Eastern Shore. Misses DC verbatim - but would make things interesting at least. Could be some good distant storm photos from the DC area. Of course I picked to work out of Silver Spring today instead of Arundel Mills. 

Landmass boundaries are going to be the initiation mechanism for today.

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