frd Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: exactly. the entire SVR season has been ridiculously tame almost everywhere. there hasn't been a MDT for tornadoes since those April events in the southeast Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? Total speculation, but wondering if there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends during the summer . And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East. Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 2 hours ago, frd said: Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? Total speculation, but wondering if there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends during the summer . And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East. Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts. Thank you. I'm not aware of any correlation between the severe season and summer temperatures, but it's a great question. Some severe seasons are tempered by all of the flow being displaced north into Canada which usually implies a hot pattern. Some seasons like this one are tempered by anomalous blocking which kept a lot of people cool. And we all know that patterns can quickly break down. Looking at some of the longer range forecasts, they are showing a big ridge over the central U.S. and more troughing in the east (as you noted). This would imply fairly frequent frontal passages for us, with breaks in the heat, potential severe weather along the fronts, and maybe even some northwest flow severe events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. A wind-driven MDT is certainly the type of event that might see the issuance of a PDS severe box. Curious to see how this plays out, with severe storms well-established already in western Michigan during the morning. The next box that gets issued out ahead of it might be PDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: A wind-driven MDT is certainly the type of event that might see the issuance of a PDS severe box. Curious to see how this plays out, with severe storms well-established already in western Michigan during the morning. The next box that gets issued out ahead of it might be PDS. PDS Blue Boxes are rare. I cannot recall the last time a High Risk was issues for wind or hail. It seems that so many of the High Risk area issued by SPC are for tornadoes, but the impacts from crop loss and power outages, etc. from wind and hail are nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: PDS Blue Boxes are rare. I cannot recall the last time a High Risk was issues for wind or hail. It seems that so many of the High Risk area issued by SPC are for tornadoes, but the impacts from crop loss and power outages, etc. from wind and hail are nothing to sneeze at. 6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1630 OTLK nudges the SLGT towards the Blue Ridge and into C MD... MRGL now east of i95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 I'm wondering if any surprise storms develop this afternoon, there is a healthy CU field and it looks like they're trying for vertical growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I'm wondering if any surprise storms develop this afternoon, there is a healthy CU field and it looks like they're trying for vertical growth Latest HRRR run has some decent looking storms coming through around 05z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Latest HRRR run has some decent looking storms coming through around 05z. yeah, it will be interesting to see whether it maintains this solution. The NAM nest has been semi-consistent with an evening threat a couple of hours earlier. The NSSL-WRF (ARW2) is the only model that has convection in the metro area before 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Radar seems ahead of both NAM and Hrrr regarding storm formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Radar seems ahead of both NAM and Hrrr regarding storm formation. I thought the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Radar seems ahead of both NAM and Hrrr regarding storm formation. 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I thought the same. I'm guessing that could be good because we might get the storms in before sunset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm guessing that could be good because we might get the storms in before sunset? Latest hrrr gets storms in around 9-10pm, which is the earliest I’ve seen. But I’m feeling pretty good for some action overnight given the radar look and mesos getting more bullish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Latest hrrr gets storms in around 9-10pm, which is the earliest I’ve seen. But I’m feeling pretty good for some action overnight given the radar look and mesos getting more bullish. I’m pumped! Maybe a good night for a Jebwalk in the rain...if I want to struck by lightning. I do once again love overnight storms. Soooooo soothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Few sprinkles with a passing dark cloud, hope we get some action later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 3K is also very close to some good storms and rain tomorrow. Just need a couple more hours of delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Ok who reported that? :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Few rumbles and some gusts in my downpour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esullivan Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Cross haired! Hope it holds course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Solid little cell racing out of western Montgomery County. I can see lightning in the tower from New Windsor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Meh, radar doesn’t look great for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, esullivan said: Cross haired! Hope it holds course! Funny to look at this radar still and know that it is going to miss 80% of the area inside the Beltway. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 It's 8pm, but SPC meso analysis has over 2,500 SBCAPE and LI's over 6. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 strong storm moving through bethesda. this one is packing some vitamins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 i don't know if it would classify as severe but got a pretty decent downburst, torrential rain (won't be surprised to see up to an inch here) and impressive lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Meh, radar doesn’t look great for MBY Yeah, looked more promising earlier in the day. Other than the one mini-line, not much out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Think I see a notch around Bethesda or east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, looked more promising earlier in the day. Other than the one mini-line, not much out there. Gonna miss soooo close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 30 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Funny to look at this radar still and know that it is going to miss 80% of the area inside the Beltway. 0.02”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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