mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Mrs.J said: Yea woke to hear about the tornado and have seen the damage and video out of there. 19 confirmed deaths now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, high risk said: pretty stong agreement among the CAMs this morning that the threat later today is all north of the DC Beltway, and depending on your model of choice, it could well north. my area north, or into PA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, mappy said: my area north, or into PA? you have a very legit chance of seeing convection, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Just now, high risk said: you have a very legit chance of seeing convection, for sure. well shit. guess i should pay attention. timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: well shit. guess i should pay attention. timing? lots of signal around 7 or 8pm, but a general 6-9pm range should cover it. overall severe threat seems fairly low but not non-zero, consistent with the SPC outlook. But lightning would be a nice early March bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: lots of signal around 7 or 8pm, but a general 6-9pm range should cover it. overall severe threat seems fairly low but not non-zero, consistent with the SPC outlook. But lightning would be a nice early March bonus. thanks! have a thing after work, but should be home by 530 at the latest. would hate to miss something exciting happening lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Death toll up to 19 in Tennessee...mostly in Putnam county, well east of Nashville...Will be interesting to find out exactly how many tornadoes there were or if this was mostly just from one single long track tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Given the dense cloud cover, safe to say today will be a classic Mid Atlantic Nothingburger™ unless things clear out fast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Given the dense cloud cover, safe to say today will be a classic Mid Atlantic Nothingburger™ unless things clear out fast. I tend to think most severe weather outbreaks are overplayed in this area anyways but yeah, radar doesnt look like much right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Given the dense cloud cover, safe to say today will be a classic Mid Atlantic Nothingburger™ unless things clear out fast. HRRR does have it clearing out this afternoon though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 After some surprise morning downpours, it is starting to lighten back up over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I tend to think most severe weather outbreaks are overplayed in this area anyways but yeah, radar doesnt look like much right now not at all saying that this will end up as a severe event, but the radar is supposed to look empty right now, regardless of whether we get severe. The guidance shows storms breaking out over central WV in the next 2 hours and then racing east-northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2020 Author Share Posted March 3, 2020 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0144.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2020 Author Share Posted March 3, 2020 Line of clearing skies running between Lexington, Charlottesville and Culpeper. Another little patch of slight clearing up near HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Sun coming out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Baltimorewx said: Death toll up to 19 in Tennessee...mostly in Putnam county, well east of Nashville...Will be interesting to find out exactly how many tornadoes there were or if this was mostly just from one single long track tornado right now NWS Nashville are looking at two distinct areas of damage, both upper ends of EF3. Could be from the same tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2020 Author Share Posted March 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Sun coming out here There's a large area of clearing encroaching a big chunk of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: I tend to think most severe weather outbreaks are overplayed in this area anyways but yeah, radar doesnt look like much right now i think you should not post this until weather actually pops up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i think you should not post this until weather actually pops up. Well he's following the Eskimo Joe school... so you can see where he gets it from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Well he's following the Eskimo Joe school... so you can see where he gets it from well we already have one eskimo joe, we do not need two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Clearing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Really clearing out here now... I can see a lot of blue sky ETA: @George BM beat me to the punch with the sat pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 3 hours ago, mappy said: 19 confirmed deaths now 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Really clearing out here now... I can see a lot of blue sky ETA: @George BM beat me to the punch with the sat pic Came here to say the same thing. Up to 54 from 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2020 Author Share Posted March 3, 2020 Areas that have been in the clearing for the longest have warmed into the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Areas that have been in the clearing for the longest have warmed into the mid 60s. Sun peeking out in Gaithersburg...hope se get a nice line or something this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Decent storms in C WV.... guess we shall see what makes it into W VA in the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 yay -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0146.html Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020 Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania...Maryland...West Virginia...and western through northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032127Z - 032330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Relatively shallow convection continues to migrate eastward into the discussion area and will continue to pose a threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity. DISCUSSION...Relatively shallow convection continues within an axis of weak instability extending from near FKL to EKN to BKW. Ahead of this axis, insolation has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low 60s amidst mid/upper 40s F dewpoints. Cooling associated with advancement of a mid-level wave across the region has contributed to the destabilization and will likely allow for this axis of instability to spread eastward in tandem with convection across the discussion area over the next couple hours or so. A mix of cellular and linear convection should continue, which will allow for occasional updraft rotation given strong shear and fast flow aloft. Any wind/hail threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark with the onset of nocturnal boundary layer cooling. Furthermore, the weak instability is limiting the overall magnitude of the severe threat, precluding a WW issuance. ..Cook/Hart.. 03/03/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 Getting pretty dark over here. Friend out in Lovettsville says there is a lot of lightning. pouring rain thunder and lightning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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