dailylurker Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not feelin' it for my yard over the next day or 2. My sprinkler broke yesterday. Time to head to Lowes for a new one. Get one on a tripod. I've got 2 going in my garden. Looking like some seriously dry weather incoming after we fail today and Tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Get one on a tripod. I've got 2 going in my garden. Looking like some seriously dry weather incoming after we fail today and Tomorrow. I have had a tripod my entire life. They work fabulously. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 95% chance of a watch in PA. SWODY1 Slight expanded further back to Pittsburgh and the rest of western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: 95% chance of a watch in PA. SWODY1 Slight expanded further back to Pittsburgh and the rest of western MD. 80% chance of a watch from C VA to C PA... MCD just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 I'm still not seeing it. HRRR looks pretty pedestrian and it's the most bullish model I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Severe thunderstorm watch just issued. Get ready for a few drops of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for DC and surrounding counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 No SVR watch here yet, and there probably won't be. How lame can these threats get?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-107-113-137-139-153-157- 165-171-187-510-600-610-660-683-685-790-820-840-050200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE HIGHLAND LOUDOUN MADISON ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-013-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-050200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 for everyone talking this down, there is no doubt that if you require supercells or a big ugly bow echo (like in PA) yesterday to be validate a threat, it's not a day for that. but there will be convection moving through the area later (maybe most likely from DC and points north), and our forecast soundings have that inverted-V structure which favors a downburst threat (it's shown in the high downdraft cape values). Shear and instability are modest for sure, but the watch is totally justified, IMHO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, high risk said: for everyone talking this down, there is no doubt that if you require supercells or a big ugly bow echo (like in PA) yesterday to be validate a threat, it's not a day for that. but there will be convection moving through the area later (maybe most likely from DC and points north), and our forecast soundings have that inverted-V structure which favors a downburst threat (it's shown in the high downdraft cape values). Shear and instability are modest for sure, but the watch is totally justified, IMHO. Yea no doubt there's going to be a nice pulser or two, DCAPE is puching 900j/kg. I would put money on locations west of US 15 maximizing potential today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Watch disco did mention afternoon hail threat with discrete storms which may have transient supercell characteristics too. Wind probs in the watch are 50/10... hail probs 30/20 SUMMARY...Initially discrete cells with transient supercell structures should develop into multiple clusters through the afternoon into this evening. Scattered damaging winds will be the main threat, but isolated severe hail is possible as well, especially this afternoon. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0250.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 First STW of the day down in Nelson/Augusta counties... moving NE. Winds to 60mph and quarter size hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 18z NAM 3k has some action for the urban corridor again. 18z HRRRRR says tomorrow's the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z NAM 3k has some action for the urban corridor again. 18z HRRRRR says tomorrow's the day! Yes. Tomorrow looks like a better opportunity regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. Tomorrow looks like a better opportunity regionwide. SPC added a small MRGL risk for damaging winds tomorrow in their 1730z SPC OTLK update for parts of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2020 Author Share Posted June 4, 2020 I'm telling you guys - this is like one of those series of days where we just bat zeroes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Severe thunderstorm watch just issued. Get ready for a few drops of rain! Funny but think about when we get warnings, at least here actually experiencing warning criteria weather is slim pickin's. That is 58+ mph wind gusts and/or 3/4" or larger hail. It seems when we actually get legit svr it's the hail that comes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I'm telling you guys - this is like one of those series of days where we just bat zeroes. Everything fired too far west, too late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I'm telling you guys - this is like one of those series of days where we just bat zeroes. We need to get sent down to AAA to work on our hitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Everything fired too far west, too late today. Lol 4 warnings already from LWX... watch till 10pm... and it's too late? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2020 Author Share Posted June 4, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Everything fired too far west, too late today. It's possible that stuff can roll off the mountains. But my hopes aren't high. Just now, Eskimo Joe said: We need to get sent down to AAA to work on our hitting. We might as well be elementary school little-league at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Trained spotters reported damage to trees in NW Hardy county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Wow. For a second I thought I was in the winter thread. Too much deb downing. Lol. I think we are a few hours away for the I-95 crew. I feel like something is brewing (my favorite terminology - “brewing”). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 This was always going to be a later event here, and that hasn't changed. Interesting now that the cell north of Harrisburg has a TOR warning, and the one near Gettysburg may have one soon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 I hope we can get something interesting down closer to Richmond soon. It’s been pretty boring weather-wise. Nice, but boring. Friday - Sat looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Numerous trees down in Albermarle county Emergency management reports numerous trees down near Great Cacapon as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Front Royal area storm that had been moving NE has turned right and moving east now per latest STW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 hour ago, high risk said: This was always going to be a later event here, and that hasn't changed. Interesting now that the cell north of Harrisburg has a TOR warning, and the one near Gettysburg may have one soon. That corridor is the place to be for severe/heavy rain again it appears, as it was yesterday. I think this is the third round from Harrisburg to Lancaster to maybe Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 the sky had a very south florida look to it today with all the cumulus clouds around. water vapor/satellite/radar all look decent. would have liked to see things pop earlier, but hopefully some of these cells hold together to clear out some of this pollen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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