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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-107-113-137-139-153-157-
165-171-187-510-600-610-660-683-685-790-820-840-050200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON            AUGUSTA             CLARKE
CULPEPER             FAIRFAX             FAUQUIER
FREDERICK            GREENE              HIGHLAND
LOUDOUN              MADISON             ORANGE
PAGE                 PRINCE WILLIAM      RAPPAHANNOCK
ROCKINGHAM           SHENANDOAH          WARREN




VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           FAIRFAX             FALLS CHURCH
HARRISONBURG         MANASSAS            MANASSAS PARK
STAUNTON             WAYNESBORO          WINCHESTER
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC001-003-005-013-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-050200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0250.200604T1830Z-200605T0200Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             ANNE ARUNDEL        BALTIMORE
CARROLL              FREDERICK           HARFORD
HOWARD               MONTGOMERY          PRINCE GEORGES
WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$
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for everyone talking this down, there is no doubt that if you require supercells or a big ugly bow echo (like in PA) yesterday to be validate a threat, it's not a day for that.

but there will be convection moving through the area later (maybe most likely from DC and points north), and our forecast soundings have that inverted-V structure which favors a downburst threat (it's shown in the high downdraft cape values).       Shear and instability are modest for sure, but the watch is totally justified, IMHO.hrrr_2020060417_005_39.21--76_93.thumb.png.2c270b91716abd35ec0ed4daa7ee2631.png

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12 minutes ago, high risk said:

for everyone talking this down, there is no doubt that if you require supercells or a big ugly bow echo (like in PA) yesterday to be validate a threat, it's not a day for that.

but there will be convection moving through the area later (maybe most likely from DC and points north), and our forecast soundings have that inverted-V structure which favors a downburst threat (it's shown in the high downdraft cape values).       Shear and instability are modest for sure, but the watch is totally justified, IMHO.hrrr_2020060417_005_39.21--76_93.thumb.png.2c270b91716abd35ec0ed4daa7ee2631.png

Yea no doubt there's going to be a nice pulser or two, DCAPE is puching 900j/kg. I would put money on locations west of US 15 maximizing potential today.

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Watch disco did mention afternoon hail threat with discrete storms which may have transient supercell characteristics too.

Wind probs in the watch are 50/10... hail probs 30/20

SUMMARY...Initially discrete cells with transient supercell
   structures should develop into multiple clusters through the
   afternoon into this evening. Scattered damaging winds will be the
   main threat, but isolated severe hail is possible as well,
   especially this afternoon.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0250.html

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Severe thunderstorm watch just issued.   Get ready for a few drops of rain!

Funny but think about when we get warnings, at least here actually experiencing warning criteria weather is slim pickin's.  That is 58+ mph wind gusts and/or 3/4" or larger hail.  It seems when we actually get legit svr it's the hail that comes. 

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Everything fired too far west, too late today.

It's possible that stuff can roll off the mountains. But my hopes aren't high.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

We need to get sent down to AAA to work on our hitting.

We might as well be elementary school little-league at this point. 

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

This was always going to be a later event here, and that hasn't changed.     

Interesting now that the cell north of Harrisburg has a TOR warning, and the one near Gettysburg may have one soon.

That corridor is the place to be for severe/heavy rain again it appears, as it was yesterday. I think this is the third round from Harrisburg to Lancaster to maybe Philly.

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the sky had a very south florida look to it today with all the cumulus clouds around.  water vapor/satellite/radar all look decent.  would have liked to see things pop earlier, but hopefully some of these cells hold together to clear out some of this pollen.

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