Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 Look at hr108 on the 12z CIPS guidance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Look at hr108 on the 12z CIPS guidance Off the charts severe wx. I hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Look at hr108 on the 12z CIPS guidance So looks like we probably have 2 chances then... Wednesday afternoon into night and then again Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 15-20k? That has to be close to the instability on Jupiter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 18z NAM nest has a comical DC area split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 SPC morning Day 2 has moved SLGT risk south some... it is now just north of a Harrisonburg, VA to EZF line.... 2/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 SPC morning Day 2 disco ...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and a related belt of strong cyclonically curved west-northwesterly winds aloft (40-55 kt at 500 mb) will overlie a south/southeastward-spreading front. The potential exists for early day convection across the region, and this convection and related cloud cover casts some uncertainty 1) regarding the exact degree of destabilization and 2) a preferred corridor of any higher coverage severe potential. That said, moderate buoyancy (upwards of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) is plausible near/south of the front and to the south of any residual early day precipitation/outflow. Storms will likely increase/intensify through early/mid afternoon near the effective front. The strong mid/high-level westerlies and 40+ kt effective shear would support some initial supercells along with well-organized southeastward-moving clusters. Damaging winds and severe hail are expected. Although low-level winds will tend to remain veered in areas near/south of the front, moderately strong low-level shear/SRH could yield a non-zero tornado risk during the afternoon and early evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 IMO, Friday looks like the better setup for us. Wednesday is probably a dying complex that gets the highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2020 Author Share Posted June 2, 2020 I'm kind of not that enthused about any particular days in this threat window. @Eskimo Joe seems like he might be right about tomorrow being a dying complex. Thursday's parameters aren't really there - Friday looks like the instability is focused to the north and west. Would be pretty DCish to fail on everything. However, I will say with all that's going on down in DC, the last thing we probably want is large scale power outages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 I actually thought that the overnight guidance took a nice step forward for tomorrow, with several CAMs bringing activity through the area either late Wednesday or Wednesday evening. It's reflected in the HREFv3 (updated version coming later this year with extension to 48h) that shows decent changes of 40 dbz at both 21 and 00z tomorrow: (to be clear, these aren't huge probs, but it's a step forward for sure) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Latest NAM skips right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 48 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Latest NAM skips right over us. yes, but several other hi-res models look pretty good, especially for areas north of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Watch the CAPE boundary tomorrow. Storms like to roll along that. Setup right now is north of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2020 Author Share Posted June 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Watch the CAPE boundary tomorrow. Storms like to roll along that. Setup right now is north of the Potomac. 1730z SPC update removed DC proper (and MoCo) from the SLGT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 1730z SPC update removed DC proper (and MoCo) from the SLGT. You called it days ago...something looks slightly promising days out then goes 'poof'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 The big problem we have tomorrow is that it is dry. HRRR is putting the DPs in the 50s by later in the day. Kills the instability and the line dropping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The big problem we have tomorrow is that it is dry. HRRR is putting the DPs in the 50s by later in the day. Kills the instability and the line dropping down. Verbatim, it would be a nice fast-moving line with good wind potential if CAPE ended up better than modeled... not that I'm implying that it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The big problem we have tomorrow is that it is dry. HRRR is putting the DPs in the 50s by later in the day. Kills the instability and the line dropping down. I've been watching some of what has been going on in MN/WI... and seems like HRRR was a big whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Very interesting notes from SPC today about May 2020 severe weather wise 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: The big problem we have tomorrow is that it is dry. HRRR is putting the DPs in the 50s by later in the day. Kills the instability and the line dropping down. There will be some drying, due to what looks like modest downscoping, but the HRRR tends to overmix. I think that's why its dew points are a fair amount lower than most of the other guidance here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 NAM seems to like Thursday a lot more than Wednesday for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 On 6/1/2020 at 10:04 AM, Kmlwx said: A bit north of us - @mappy is in the slight. Obviously expect tweaks as we get closer. D3 is an eternity away in severe forecasting. Do we all need a refresher that on June 29, 2012...DC proper was not even in the slight risk until the 20z update. Moderate not until the 01z update. close to enhanced risk now. but not liking any of the models this morning. a dying complex heading south.... i'm not too hyped on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 35 minutes ago, mappy said: close to enhanced risk now. but not liking any of the models this morning. a dying complex heading south.... i'm not too hyped on this one Any prospects for rain? I don't bother with severe around here. Widespread severe has happened like twice in the 41 years of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Any prospects for rain? I don't bother with severe around here. Widespread severe has happened like twice in the 41 years of my life. today? only if you're lucky to get under a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 Yeah, today is not looking all that good for severe weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 That being said - I wonder what models looked like on a day like June 29, 2012. I could see the one wild card being if a good cold pool can really get established and sustain activity. Not sure if that would be modeled well prior to initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 The models are much more enthused for DC proper for tomorrow. I'm starting to prepare to punt today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: That being said - I wonder what models looked like on a day like June 29, 2012. I could see the one wild card being if a good cold pool can really get established and sustain activity. Not sure if that would be modeled well prior to initiation. We didn't have too many CAMs back then. The NAM nest was running, and it whiffed badly on that event. The HRRR did ok, but it was experimental, and not many people saw it. A key for today will be dew points. The HRRR is most aggressive in mixing them out (downsloping factor?). Most guidance mixes them out to some extent but try to have them recover closer to 00z, especially across northern MD. I certainly can't disagree with everyone ready to punt today, but I'm not ready to close the book quite yet, at least for those of us north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: We didn't have too many CAMs back then. The NAM nest was running, and it whiffed badly on that event. The HRRR did ok, but it was experimental, and not many people saw it. A key for today will be dew points. The HRRR is most aggressive in mixing them out (downsloping factor?). Most guidance mixes them out to some extent but try to have them recover closer to 00z, especially across northern MD. I certainly can't disagree with everyone ready to punt today, but I'm not ready to close the book quite yet, at least for those of us north of DC. In my mind - the only two things that could "save" today are 1) An aggressive cold pool that performs better than expected at sustaining some sort of complex. 2) @Eskimo Joe's reminder that sometimes these things sag a bit more south and east than expected. But the fat lady is warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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