osfan24 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 0z 3k NAM has a line of severe storms roll through in the 3-5 AM time period and then nothing but a few isolated cells after that for Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Regardless of what spc goes with, please everyone make sure you have a safe place to go should you find yourself under a tornado warning. With a quick low-level flow these storms will be booking it through the area. Should anything rotate, it will spin up fast. Stay safe y’all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 0z 3k NAM has a line of severe storms roll through in the 3-5 AM time period and then nothing but a few isolated cells after that for Central MD. verbatim, that early morning line has no sfc-based instability to work with and would be non-severe. It's earlier with that round of convection than most other guidance. That run still has some afternoon cells, but it's definitely not showing a widespread severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3k Nam showing the higher capes almost vanish. Significantly lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 3k Nam showing the higher capes almost vanish. Significantly lower. Other than the HRRR, the 00z CAMs across the board are a big step back for the threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Ready for my prefrontal wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: Next. Really? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Really? Straight line wind gusts are still pretty potent 3k Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 3k Nam showing the higher capes almost vanish. Significantly lower. The NAM makes no sense imo given this setup, esp DC south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Tornado Watch(es) coming soon in NC -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0373.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, canderson said: The NAM makes no sense imo given this setup, esp DC south. I thought the same thing. Was waiting for a met to say it. I mean a huge step back, but the 12k did not take a huge step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 DPs are approaching 60 on southerly winds across the region - https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=RWR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Nice warm rain. New grass a go! 59f light to moderate rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 7 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Slightly OT - but who has a good BV and SRV color table for GR2Analyst? Not sure if anybody replied Here's what I use Quote product: BR units: dBZ step: 5 color: -30 116 78 173 color: -20 147 141 117 color: -10 204 208 175 color: 10 65 91 158 color: 17.5 111 214 232 color: 21 17 209 23 color: 25 15 192 21 color: 30 11 141 15 color: 35 9 94 9 color: 40 255 226 0 color: 49.99 255 128 0 color: 50 255 0 0 color: 59.99 113 0 0 color: 60 255 255 255 255 146 255 color: 65 255 117 255 255 11 227 color: 70 178 0 255 99 0 214 color: 75 5 236 240 0 0 0 color: 95 0 0 0 Quote Product: BV units: KTS step: 10 Scale: 1.9426 ; converts internal units (M/S) to KTS color: 0 138 118 118 132 56 65 color: 10 110 0 0 243 0 7 color: 35 250 55 81 255 149 208 color: 55 255 149 208 255 232 163 color: 60 255 232 163 255 149 83 color: 80 255 138 79 103 6 2 color: 120 103 6 2 color: -10 78 121 76 114 133 112 color: -35 3 245 3 5 102 3 color: -60 110 230 233 3 245 3 color: -70 48 224 227 110 230 233 color: -90 22 2 153 40 204 220 color: -100 108 4 152 22 2 153 color: -120 255 0 132 108 4 152 RF: 127 0 207 Quote Product: SRV units: KTS step: 10 Scale: 1.9426 ; converts internal units (M/S) to KTS color: 0 138 118 118 132 56 65 color: 10 110 0 0 243 0 7 color: 35 250 55 81 255 149 208 color: 55 255 149 208 255 232 163 color: 60 255 232 163 255 149 83 color: 80 255 138 79 103 6 2 color: 120 103 6 2 color: -10 78 121 76 114 133 112 color: -35 3 245 3 5 102 3 color: -60 110 230 233 3 245 3 color: -70 48 224 227 110 230 233 color: -90 22 2 153 40 204 220 color: -100 108 4 152 22 2 153 color: -120 255 0 132 108 4 152 RF: 127 0 207 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Chinook said: Not sure if anybody replied Here's what I use Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Thats new (re bolded)... never seen that before BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 357 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... Tucker County in northeastern West Virginia... Preston County in northeastern West Virginia... * Until 500 AM EDT. * At 356 AM EDT, the back end of severe showers and isolated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Newburg to near Belington, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 65 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Kingwood... Mountain Lake Park... Oakland... Parsons... Terra Alta... Davis... Thomas... Rowlesburg... Bittinger... Grantsville... Loch Lynn Heights... Friendsville... This includes the following highways... Interstate 68 in Maryland between mile markers 1 and 29. Interstate 68 in West Virginia between mile markers 17 and 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 LWX morning disco on our threat Thunderstorms may contain gusty winds early this morning and even a spin up cannot be ruled out. However, SBCAPE values should remain low during this time so any threat will be localized. The dry slot will move in around mid-morning, and when combined with the increased warm advection, this should enhance instability and have it rooted within the boundary layer. The coverage of precipitation may diminish some, but strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during this time. Given the long an curved hodographs, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all a threat with linear segments and supercells possible. The best chance for severe storms will be between 9 AM and 3 PM east of the Allegheny Highlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 DCZ001-MDZ013-504-506-VAZ053-054-130900- District of Columbia-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Prince Georges-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 ...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA... At 4 AM EDT, very heavy rain was moving northeast out of northern Virginia into the Washington metro area. As it moves through, this will cause hazardous driving conditions and poor drainage flooding between 4 and 6 this morning. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Looks like the day one enhanced remained largely unchanged from yesterday’s day 2? And can someone post the tornado prob map from SPC plz? Day 1 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Looks like the day one enhanced remained largely unchanged from yesterday’s day 2? And can someone post the tornado prob map from SPC plz? Day 1 today. 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Looks like the day one enhanced remained largely unchanged from yesterday’s day 2? And can someone post the tornado prob map from SPC plz? Day 1 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 down the road a few hours for us maybe... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 435 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Stokes County in north central North Carolina... Western Rockingham County in north central North Carolina... Eastern Yadkin County in northwestern North Carolina... Southwestern Campbell County in central Virginia... Western Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia... The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia... South central Bedford County in south central Virginia... Henry County in south central Virginia... Southeastern Franklin County in west central Virginia... Southeastern Patrick County in southwestern Virginia... * Until 530 AM EDT. * At 435 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Sontag to near Clemmons, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Eden... Martinsville... Rocky Mount... Altavista... Wentworth... Mayodan... and Madison. This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway and Martinsville Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 New TOR Watch coming soon for S VA into NC = https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0377.html Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 130840Z - 131015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with an evolving squall line is expected to increase across the region through daybreak and beyond, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a deepening elongated surface cyclone, centered over the Great Lakes, will continue to shift across and east of the Appalachians through 11-13Z, ahead of the remnants of a vigorous short wave impulse approaching the Appalachians. Aided by strengthening southerly low-level flow, including 50-70 kt at 850 mb, moisture return is ongoing across much of the southern Mid Atlantic. Surface dew points are now rising through the mid/upper 60s across much of central and eastern North Carolina, and this moisture is expected to continue to advect northward ahead of the evolving squall line, into much of southern/eastern Virginia through daybreak into mid/late morning. This will contribute to boundary-layer destabilization sufficient to support at least the maintenance of vigorous convection, with continuing intensification possible, accompanied by the the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Tornado Warning VAC067-089-143-690-130930- /O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0003.200413T0901Z-200413T0930Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 501 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia... The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia... Central Henry County in south central Virginia... Eastern Franklin County in west central Virginia... * Until 530 AM EDT. * At 501 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Martinsville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Martinsville... Sydnorsville... Penhook... Snow Creek... Leatherwood... Villa Heights... and Chatmoss. This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway and Martinsville Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 60/30 tor probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Any severe for the DC area will have to be from round 2. This first batch is mostly heavy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Any severe for the DC area will have to be from round 2. This first batch is mostly heavy rains True... LWX AFD said between 9am and 3pm for our severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 This is technically round 2 now, as the actual warm front is lifting north over the area. Next we see how unstable we can get from around mid morning on. What develops at that point would be round 3, and carry severe potential, with the best chances of mixing some of that strong wind field aloft down to the surface. Winds are really picking up here now, with some heavy showers moving through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Will likely effect EZF region in an hour BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Louisa County in central Virginia... Southeastern Prince Edward County in central Virginia... Northwestern Nottoway County in south central Virginia... Goochland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Hanover County in central Virginia... Northwestern Amelia County in central Virginia... Powhatan County in central Virginia... * Until 745 AM EDT. * At 655 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Hadensville to Trenholm to near Hampden Sydney College, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines. * Severe thunderstorms will be near, Louisa, Mineral and Trenholm around 700 AM EDT. Goochland and Bumpass around 705 AM EDT. Oilville, Jetersville and Gum Spring around 710 AM EDT. Amelia Courthouse, Morven and Tobaccoville around 715 AM EDT. Montpelier, Chula and Ballsville around 720 AM EDT. Powhatan and Macon around 725 AM EDT. Sabot around 735 AM EDT. Tuckahoe and Manakin around 740 AM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I am heading over to Lovettsville this morning. The vet is coming out for Spring shots and care visits. Appt is at 9:30. Looking at radar this line may have pushed through by then. But am I reading this correctly that the severe potential will be behind the line with developing storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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