yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Hmmm... LWX keeps upgrading the Wind Advisory to HWW for more and more counties... first it was St. Marys and Calvert at 430ish... just now updated again and now includes PG/Charles/King George VA/AA counties ETA: This was reason why at 430 St. Mary's and Calvert were added to HWW per the AFD: Quote Update...Added Calvert and St Mary`s Counties to the High Wind Warning Monday based on low-level jet positioned over the Delmarva, which likley will stretch back toward the southern Maryland shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 FYI, this was posted in the SE forum. Impacts potentially the timing, etc. for tomorrow: Quote SnowGooge69: The 3km NAM is laughably slow. The HRRR is closest but even its too far west now with activity in NRN AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: SWODY2 has been updated. IMO, this is fine. That's the exact same shape of BUTTHEADS head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: FYI, this was posted in the SE forum. Impacts potentially the timing, etc. for tomorrow: This always happens as we close - things slow down but ultimately the storms race out faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 So far, things appear to be on time, if anything the system is a tad north of everything and the activity is remarkable discrete down south. Not really congealing into a QLCS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Would someone be kind enough to post the NAM and GFS or any type of model output that shows for VA DC etc as to what squall line will look like when it blows through tomorrow morning? Or is there a site I can access that would show this in a better manner than instant weather maps. *I have Pivotal weather as well. That seems to be a bit better wrt svr parameters they offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So far, things appear to be on time, if anything the system is a tad north of everything and the activity is remarkable discrete down south. Not really congealing into a QLCS. Still time for that to happen, though. It would be great if we weren't socked in tomorrow morning when the sun came up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 That’s just terrible what’s going on down in MS. I hope everyone is safe. I’m sure an unpopular opinion here but I’d prefer we see 0 tornadoes. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Still time for that to happen, though. It would be great if we weren't socked in tomorrow morning when the sun came up. We're going to star the day cloudy and misty. There's no escaping that. What really helps us is that we got a healthy low and mid level jet to help us get at least some clearing. It's not like we're waiting for the warm front to struggle through the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: That’s just terrible what’s going on down in MS. I hope everyone is safe. I’m sure an unpopular opinion here but I’d prefer we see 0 tornadoes. Not unpopular to me. I don't want tornadoes. Who the hell wants a tornado damaging their property, or even worse, a potentially high-end tornado killing people? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, yoda said: sorry, what do you mean by "safe" spot? My safe spot is next to my beer fridge in my underground basement....next to my TV that continually replays the Kuzy OT winner against the Pens. You know the one... PS - whats the ETA on morning craziness? Need to set some alarms for a Jebwalk. Oh wait wrong thread. Someone get me Delorean! 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Watched that storm in Mississippi from when it started, and watched Brad Arnold chase it. What a storm. Beautiful velocity signature. Wondering if I'll get some decent storms up my way tomorrow. I need some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 FWIW, 23z HRRR really pumps the SBCAPE in the late morning into early afternoon... 2000+ SBCAPE... you can start seeing the increased surface instability grow as soon as 14z in the SW portions of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 23z HRRR sounding at DCA at 16z MON 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 ^Supercell # of 12...lol I wish that'd verify but we'll probably be lucky to get half of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 FWIW, the 23z HRRR, gets a QLCS going up into Allentown, PA and has everyone from Mason-Dixon south in an environmental conductive for tornadoes from 09z to 17z tomorrow. I don't think it's going to happen the way the HRRR is saying, but it's still somewhat encouraging to see the meso models not backing down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just checked the HRR/RAP/NAM/NAM-nest. They all have a QLCS-ish thing running through the DC/Baltimore area between 17z and 20z tomorrow. They all have the leading edge of the WAA precip hitting BWI around 00z and here we are at 00:46z with light rain at my house in Reisterstown so they don't appear to be terribly off when it comes to timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Likely Step 2 or 3 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Not unpopular to me. I don't want tornadoes. Who the hell wants a tornado damaging their property, or even worse, a potentially high-end tornado killing people? I often wonder about this myself when I see people's posts on here about very severe storms. While I realize that people's hopes on a website aren't going to change where a storm hits, everyone is a hardass about tornadoes until one destroys their house or worse. I also think a lot of the people who root for tornadoes live in buildings they don't own... apartments, rentals, etc. That or they just don't think it can happen to them and don't much care if it happens to anyone else. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 00z HRRR suggesting some isolated severe wind segments in the initial line that goes through early morning. 75+ mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 DPs beginning to rise through the 50s across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 hours ago, gymengineer said: Have there been widespread 50 mph+ gusts across the area from a *southerly* direction since Isabel (03)? Specifically for us it would be the morning of January 25, 2010. The front of my house faces due south. The front door has metal weatherstripping and when the winds gust around 50mph or higher there's enough pressure to make it buzz like a kazoo. It's quite loud. And IIRC the last time this happened was then. Before that would have been Isabel. The sound is just like as is heard in this video here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 00z HRRR suggesting some isolated severe wind segments in the initial line that goes through early morning. 75+ mph Yes, and it then really likes that noon-2pm window. Has a few decent UH tracks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: Yes, and it then really likes that noon-2pm window. Has a few decent UH tracks. Yup. Everyone should be charging their phones tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 My call for the new D1 outlook will be (for DC proper) 5% TOR with the 10% very nearby. 30% wind and 15% hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: My call for the new D1 outlook will be (for DC proper) 5% TOR with the 10% very nearby. 30% wind and 15% hail. So ENH risk (because of wind)... I'll go big... as usual lol... 10% TOR hatched, 15% hail, 30 % wind hatched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: My call for the new D1 outlook will be (for DC proper) 5% TOR with the 10% very nearby. 30% wind and 15% hail. I could see the ENH get pushed to Mason-Dixon for wind. And have the 10% TOR go from a JYO to DCA to SBY line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I could see the ENH get pushed to Mason-Dixon for wind. And have the 10% TOR go from a JYO to DCA to SBY line. My ceiling scenario for the D1 would be 10% TOR w or w/o hatching to the Mason Dixon Line, 45% wind, 15% hail. I think that's max for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now