Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 @csnavywx thanks for the great explanation for us weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 HR132 on today's 12Z Euro OP at 500mb is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HR132 on today's 12Z Euro OP at 500mb is I'm about to look...if I am not blown away I will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm about to look...if I am not blown away I will be disappointed. It looks really nice. I wish CIPS Analogs ran on the Euro...would be interested to see what that spit out. 132 hours away isn't even that far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: It looks really nice. I wish CIPS Analogs ran on the Euro...would be interested to see what that spit out. 132 hours away isn't even that far... We're long overdue for a big, multi-modal spring/summer severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're long overdue for a big, multi-modal spring/summer severe season. The low pressure on the Euro doesn't pass as close to us as the event a few weeks ago. But the H5 chart is ripe looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I just hope that we can keep this general pattern over the next couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, George BM said: I just hope that we can keep this general pattern over the next couple of months. Destined to flip at some point. Likely just in time for spring. April is bound to be rainy and raw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 6 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Destined to flip at some point. Likely just in time for spring. April is bound to be rainy and raw. Knowing our luck... probably. My ideal pattern over the next couple months, say through June, would be for this pattern to last through early May. Then the NAO will tank to strongly negative from say May 10th onward while a ridge builds into western Canada over a trough in the western US (-EPO/-PNA) allowing for a ridge to build over the southern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the nation east of the Rockies while a trough gets locked in between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in response to the ridge nosing into western Canada(-EPO) AND the ridge over Greenland (-NAO). Think May 30-31, 1998 but through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, George BM said: Knowing our luck... probably. My idea pattern over the next couple months, say through June, would be for this pattern to last through early May. Then the NAO will tank to strongly negative from say May 10th onward while a ridge builds into western Canada over a trough in the western US (-EPO/-PNA) allowing for a ridge to build over the southern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the nation east of the Rockies while a trough gets locked in between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in response to the ridge nosing into western Canada(-EPO) AND the ridge over Greenland (-NAO). Think May 30-31, 1998 but through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic instead. @Eskimo Joe, @yoda, @high risk - @George BM is calling for SPC to issue a HIGH RISK for somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: @Eskimo Joe, @yoda, @high risk - @George BM is calling for SPC to issue a HIGH RISK for somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast Wasn't SNE nearly in a HIGH risk last year or two years ago? They had 60% wind I think... but it wasn't hatched... or was it 45% hatched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Wasn't SNE nearly in a HIGH risk last year or two years ago? They had 60% wind I think... but it wasn't hatched... or was it 45% hatched? I don't believe there has been a high risk anywhere in the northeast since 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 @Kmlwx Indeed I am. June 23rd is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, George BM said: @Kmlwx Indeed I am. June 23rd is around the corner. The high risk better be squarely centered around my place of residence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I don't believe there has been a high risk anywhere in the northeast since 1998. It was 45% wind with sig svr I was thinking of -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20180504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: The high risk better be squarely centered around my place of residence. Wedges on the mall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 @Kmlwx -- Here it is 60% wind.... but no hatch. According to the chart, 60% wind is highest MOD risk... 60% hatched wind is HIGH risk: Here is the event -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20180515 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Maybe a slight chance for a MRGL late Wednesday? From afternoon AFD from LWX: Stronger low pressure will develop near the Appalachains Wednesday as northern and southern stream energy phase in a deepening trough over the central CONUS. The low will track through our area Wednesday night as it strengthens and the cold front associated with the low will also pass through during this time. More showers are likely ahead of the low Wednesday into Wednesday night. A deeper meridional flow ahead of this system and a strong temperature difference between the airmass overhead and arctic air that will be moving into the north-central CONUS means that the wind field will be strong throughout all levels of the atmosphere. As the trough axis swings toward a neutral and even negative tilt, this will cause low pressure to strengthen nearby. A strong wind field aloft suggests that showers could contain gusty to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Confidence remains low at this time due to limited instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 8 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The low pressure on the Euro doesn't pass as close to us as the event a few weeks ago. But the H5 chart is ripe looking. Great looking 500 map for sure. Right now, most of the guidance I've seen keeps the warm front south of the DC metro area, but it's obviously still 5 days out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Still looks like a chance Wednesday afternoon-evening for some storms... probably nothing severe, but would be nice to see some lightning and hear some loud rumbles of thunder... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 From this afternoon's AFD for Wed afternoon/evening: Stronger low pressure and its associated cold front will approach the area Wednesday afternoon before passing through Wednesday evening. Showers are expected along and ahead of the boundary during this time. The upper-level trough associated with this system will swing negatively tilted while a potent jetmax passes through the area. Strong directional convergence along the cold front along with strengthening wind at all levels of the atmosphere suggests that isolated thunderstorms with gusty to perhaps damaging winds are possible. Shear profiles and dynamic forcing are strong, but confidence for severe thunderstorms remains low due to limited instability. With low pressure passing directly overhead, an isolated spin up cannot be ruled out either if instability can get rooted within the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 So we're in to the range of the NAM nest now, and it has been emphatic for several consecutive cycles now that a strongly forced convective line will move through the area early Wednesday evening. But it's also been emphatic that the line will not be surface-based, and most of the guidance I've seen agrees with that, so the chances of taking advantage of the excellent shear profiles seems low. That said, the GFS is trying harder to find a tiny bit of sac-based instability, so I won't totally close the door, even though I'm really hesitant to consider the GFS it wants to scour out the low-level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Day 2 MRGL wind in southern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 10 hours ago, high risk said: So we're in to the range of the NAM nest now, and it has been emphatic for several consecutive cycles now that a strongly forced convective line will move through the area early Wednesday evening. But it's also been emphatic that the line will not be surface-based, and most of the guidance I've seen agrees with that, so the chances of taking advantage of the excellent shear profiles seems low. That said, the GFS is trying harder to find a tiny bit of sac-based instability, so I won't totally close the door, even though I'm really hesitant to consider the GFS it wants to scour out the low-level cold air. Classic early season "high shear low CAPE environment" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Classic early season "high shear low CAPE environment" I'm always interested in high shear low CAPE setups, but it could be a high shear NO CAPE setup. I tend to trust the NAM nest when it keeps us cool at the sfc in these events, but if the HRRR is right, it would be a SLGT risk day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just now, high risk said: I'm always interested in high shear low CAPE setups, but it could be a high shear NO CAPE setup. I tend to trust the NAM nest when it keeps us cool at the sfc in these events, but if the HRRR is right, it would be a SLGT risk day for sure. Yea, it's always a battle of the wedge. I've noticed that when you get a maturing/mature storm with decent low level jet moving into us it's easier to clear out the low levels. When you have to wait on the jet to strengthen over us then it's sketchy. I would imagine it might not be as hard to scour out the low level cold air this time because we have no snow cover and the ground isn't frozen up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Late morning update from LWX: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday will start cloudy with areas of drizzle and fog. Ceilings should gradually lift through the day. A second area of low pressure will form along the Blue Ridge and develop northeastward as it reaches southern New England by 12Z Thursday. A deepening upper trough taking a negative tilt will provide large scale forcing for upward vertical motion with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Wed afternoon through late evening. Given strengthening wind fields aloft and increasing shear values, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Wed into early evening before line of showers and embedded t-storms reaches the Chesapeake Bay by 03Z Thu. Cold air will filter in quickly on NW flow with snow showers likely accumulating 1-3 inches over western Grant and Pendleton Counties. Blustery on Thu with winds gusting up to 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Still MRGL risk... but 1730z Day 2 now includes DC metro region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 LWX is pretty bullish in their afternoon AFD, and as Yoda mentioned, the MRGL risk now comes into the DC metro area. I still, however, haven't seen guidance showing surface-based instability here. I do see good mid-level lapse rates, so there will likely be some elevated cape, and I certainly believe that some lightning is possible. Until, however, I see some sfc-based instability being progged, I can't buy in to SVR potential until you get well south of the DC Beltway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 @high risk pretty decent squall line comes roaring through the region between 02z and 05z THU on 00z 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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