Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 NAM parameters are much less impressive in Central Maryland this go around. The best stuff stays just south of DC. This is on the 12km The 3km looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: NAM parameters are much less impressive in Central Maryland this go around. The best stuff stays just south of DC. This is on the 12km The 3km looks better IMO, the biggest way we bust tomorrow is if the carolinas light up and steal everything. It's happened before and it might happen again this time, but we won't know until late tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: NAM parameters are much less impressive in Central Maryland this go around. The best stuff stays just south of DC. This is on the 12km The 3km looks better 3km is just hour after hour of storms rolling through. Pretty wild from around 2-3 am through early afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3km is just hour after hour of storms rolling through. Pretty wild from around 2-3 am through early afternoon. Just saw that. Looks like a good severe wx beat down for most of the DMV. Might have to set my alarm for the early morning hours so I can go fly a kite. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3knam verbatim looks more progressive with the system as a whole. I wonder if that will possibly keep the "round 2" further south and east as far as the worst of the severe weather. It looked pretty freaking intense to me. I don't remember the last time I saw a simulated radar look like that for 10+ hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Have there been widespread 50 mph+ gusts across the area from a *southerly* direction since Isabel (03)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: After midnight through mid morning is robust for sure. I'm talking afternoon wave of severe weather. Yeah, that big line doesn't really form. Parts of it do but it's hit or miss. There is a big, nasty line to the south that almost seems to race due north that looks real ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 SIm reflectivity probably won't be 100% useful until the models get a good lock on the evolution of convection overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3k NAM is just silly...too bad there's a 99% chance it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 3k NAM is just silly...too bad there's a 99% chance it's wrong. I mean - if we can get 20 hours of tornado watches from 2011 - maybe we can get something like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0426 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...south-central and southeast Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...107... Valid 122126Z - 122200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106, 107 continues. SUMMARY...Based on recent radar and environmental data, a violent tornado with potential peak winds of 170 to 205 mph (EF4-EF5) is likely ongoing. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY RARE EVENT. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell will continue to move through a favorable environment over south-central Mississippi, characterized by 0-1 km SRH around 400 m2/s2 and MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis data. Recent radar signatures from KLIX as of 2112Z reveal an intense supercell characterized by a 0.4 degree rotational velocity of at least 70 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. These signatures are occurring in an environment characterized by STP greater than 7. Previous signatures within similar environments produced tornado-damage-estimated wind speeds from 170 to 205 mph and confidence is high for a likely violent tornado. A long-track tornado is expected to continue based on the rotational velocity duration and the storm moving within a favorable downstream environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Damn southern Mississippi, wow. SPC is actually calling F5 on their meso discussion and debris lofted heights are well over 20k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: Damn southern Mississippi, wow. SPC is actually calling F5 on their meso discussion and debris lofted heights are well over 20k ft. Bassfield, MS just got hit by a likely EF4+ tornado with another one right on its heals. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 Slightly OT - but who has a good BV and SRV color table for GR2Analyst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I have a transparent BR file and some other SRV/BV files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, George BM said: Mesoscale Discussion 0360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0426 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...south-central and southeast Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...107... Valid 122126Z - 122200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106, 107 continues. SUMMARY...Based on recent radar and environmental data, a violent tornado with potential peak winds of 170 to 205 mph (EF4-EF5) is likely ongoing. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY RARE EVENT. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell will continue to move through a favorable environment over south-central Mississippi, characterized by 0-1 km SRH around 400 m2/s2 and MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis data. Recent radar signatures from KLIX as of 2112Z reveal an intense supercell characterized by a 0.4 degree rotational velocity of at least 70 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. These signatures are occurring in an environment characterized by STP greater than 7. Previous signatures within similar environments produced tornado-damage-estimated wind speeds from 170 to 205 mph and confidence is high for a likely violent tornado. A long-track tornado is expected to continue based on the rotational velocity duration and the storm moving within a favorable downstream environment. Wow, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 I'm shivering w fear and I'm 1000+miles away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: I have a transparent BR file and some other SRV/BV files. Biggest issue I have with the velocity color tables I'm using now is they aren't bright enough. I think they are actually the defaults. If they work with level 2 data would you mind sharing? DM me? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Biggest issue I have with the velocity color tables I'm using now is they aren't bright enough. I think they are actually the defaults. If they work with level 2 data would you mind sharing? DM me? Thanks! Let me remote into my work PC and I'll send you the SRM that I use. EDIT: Our VPN is down for maintenance right now so I'll just share the SRM file tomorrow morning in this thread when I get in work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Has there ever been an event with 2 F4/F5 tornadoes that was NOT a High Risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Let me remote into my work PC and I'll send you the SRM that I use. EDIT: Our VPN is down for maintenance right now so I'll just share the SRM file tomorrow morning in this thread when I get in work. You rock. No rush. It's ultimately not that urgent. I see all kinds of pretty ones on Twitter during events and I've never gotten around to loading something other than the default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 The 21z RAP is coming in with upwards of 2300 (corrected) 180mb MLCAPE Pockets of 2600 SBCAPE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The 21z RAP is coming in with upwards of 2300 (corrected) 180mb MLCAPE Pockets of 2600 SBCAPE... RAP is usually very stingy IIRC. I still think the major tornado risk is along and south of I-66 to DC to US 50 to SBY, but man it's not going to take that much for this to be a very memorable event in these parts even by my standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: RAP is usually very stingy IIRC. I still think the major tornado risk is along and south of I-66 to DC to US 50 to SBY, but man it's not going to take that much for this to be a very memorable event in these parts even by my standards. A lot of the CAMs (like the ARW, ARW2, NMM) want to throw all the eggs into the morning stuff and don't really have all that much for the 2nd round. I honestly would not be surprised if only one round really comes to fruition. Which one that is will probably determine our threat. It looks like a corridor to watch is going to be a slightly steeper angle than I-95 and running from like DC southward to the RIC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Business picked up in a hurry. Pretty concerning for what we could see tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Business picked up in a hurry. Pretty concerning for what we could see tomorrow. Also a linear system back in western MS producing winds of up to 70mph according to the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Also a linear system back in western MS producing winds of up to 70mph according to the warning. Whether we get linear or discrete tomorrow, it's going to produce up through the PA Turnpike. The real "safe" spot for action is from DC to SBY south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Whether we get linear or discrete tomorrow, it's going to produce up through the PA Turnpike. The real "safe" spot for action is from DC to SBY south. sorry, what do you mean by "safe" spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, yoda said: sorry, what do you mean by "safe" spot? I mean that even with a shift north or south it's got the highest chance of being a legit event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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