Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: All good points, none of which will likely be resolved until about <12 hours out. We're just going to have to look for trends, timing, etc an monitor upstream conditions. If we see an overperforming event in Dixie Alley with discrete action ahead of the main line, all bets are off and it could be the event of the spring. If it's QLCS mess behind stratiform rain then we fail. I haven't even looked at any potential of big synoptic wind behind the system either - with a storm of this nature that's always a threat as well. And like you said, any strong winds on saturated ground is going to do some damage. I still maintain that I'd prefer to be down in SEVA - but things look okay right now even up our way. Encouraged also by these dynamic systems - gives me hope we can line up something in May or June with a lot more instability and maybe still good shear etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 96hr mark on CIPS is starting to light up more than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: 96hr mark on CIPS is starting to light up more than before. Could you post a link to that again? I seem to have lost my link to that as it's not in my weather bookmarks folder anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: 96hr mark on CIPS is starting to light up more than before. IIRC, CIPS is weighted towards GEFS from HR 72 and out which is a good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IIRC, CIPS is weighted towards GEFS from HR 72 and out which is a good. It's showing an event from 03/13/2001 but I can't find anything matching that in the SPC Event Archive. I wonder if the date is wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 12z NAM still hitting the soundings hard from around 09z to 21z or so across the region on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: It's showing an event from 03/13/2001 but I can't find anything matching that in the SPC Event Archive. I wonder if the date is wrong... Here's ur answer from an SPC met: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Here's ur answer from an SPC met: Well it's weird because the PPF shows a big blob over us with reports. SPC Storm Archive appears to go back to 2000 - maybe some events are missing? Lemme grab a screenshot. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/ There's a 3/14 event - but it doesn't match this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 HR84 on the 06z GFS is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Imagine getting this same system with 85 degree temps and 70 degree dews in a month or two...and better timing maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Imagine getting this same system with 85 degree temps and 70 degree dews in a month or two...and better timing maybe. It would be a legit MOD or maybe HIGH risk day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It would be a legit MOD or maybe HIGH risk day. Easily would be similar to April 27-28 2011 - but of course maybe not with that duration. The duration on that event was something I'm not sure we're going to see again outside of a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Imagine getting this same system with 85 degree temps and 70 degree dews in a month or two...and better timing maybe. Psssst.... June 23rd is around the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 NAM going just bonkers down into MS/AL. Like STP close to 10 bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Any tornado potential would be confined to the early morning hours Monday (and dependent upon whether we can get some sfc-based instability), but the NAM is definitely leaving the door open for a line of storms on the front in the afternoon with its timing. The best low-level wind fields are long gone by then, but some wind/hail potential would exist if it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 12z Euro at 240 has another big time storm system. Has a sub 980mb low in northern Ohio. Maps suggest that could be another threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Yeah I hope people aren’t being lackadaisical down south for Sunday. Looks impressive, the 4/2011 analog is worth keeping in mind too monday is tricky, like EJ said, could end up being QLCS type setup, maybe some spin ups on front edge as notches form. Or could be a rainy event without much severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Anybody else catch the LWX afternoon AFD mentioning a possible repeat of February? Quote .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quiet weather Sat with high pressure in control. Powerful storm system is expected to develop over the Southern Plains Easter Sunday and track northeast into the Great Lks in response to negatively tilted trof. Rain/showers in warm advection pattern could arrive into western zones as early as Sun morning, but bulk of the heavy precip will be Sun night into midday Mon. Potential for 1-2 inches of rain with this system. Flooding threat non- zero, but does not appear to be a significant threat. Bigger threat will be for severe t-storms Mon morning in a high shear/low CAPE scenario similar to the Feb 07 Leesburg/Montgomery/Frederick/Carroll Counties tornadoes. Cdfnt will clear the fcst area by 18Z Mon with strong post- frontal winds in its wake. Potential for high winds of 50kt or greater exists with frontal passage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, yoda said: Anybody else catch the LWX afternoon AFD mentioning a possible repeat of February? Oh yes, just finished clearing out the felled trees around the pasture (from Feb's storm) and have a few more widowmakers stuck in the ground from last night's winds. And now this! Chainsaws are ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 18z NAM had 70kt+ winds at 900mb on Monday morning. That is really windy, really close to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 18z NAM had 70kt+ winds at 900mb on Monday morning. That is really windy, really close to the surface. That's only what, 80mph winds 3,000 feet or so above the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 18z NAM had 70kt+ winds at 900mb on Monday morning. That is really windy, really close to the surface. And it looks like around 55-65 knots around 925mb at 12z Mon morning. Looks like the height for that is around 720m - so a bit over 2,000ft. Wonder how much of that will be able to transfer down to the surface in showers/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Plus 18z NAM is trying hard for around 2000+ SBCAPE at 18z and 21z MON across the region... along with 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear... plus looks like there is still some leftover low level shear too at 18z and 21z ETA: plus having 180 to 200 J/KG of MLCAPE at the 0-3km level isn't good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Monday morning is the time frame to be worried about tornadoes and or really severe wind fields, and there is CAPE to work with especially south and west of DC. That assumes the timing of this system does not slow down any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 That is not a very friendly sounding at KCHO at 15z MON from tonights 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 0z NAM is bringing the warm sector even further north, on the west side of the Appalachians. 12-15z Monday is looking very stormy around here...mid 60's dew points ML CAPE around 500 and still a significant wind field overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 Yes was just going to post - there is legit instability in the corridor on the 0z NAM. Still the NAM out in time, though. We'll see what the GFS says - I'm sure it'll be down to Earth a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 Pulled a forecast sounding from the NAM - right around Loudoun County - and it has 1800ish J/kg of CAPE and a ridiculous looking hodo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 80kt 850 winds at 12z Mon AM on the 00z NAM over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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