Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 40 to 45kt shear per the 18z raob. Helicity favorable for anything discrete to spin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 That cell over Frederick may be our first to go today. Little rotation in it as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 The WV/OH is kinda beefy...that might be the real show from DC and points south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 hour ago, juliacarolecat said: Sorry for a silly question, I’m new to posting but a lurker for years. Is the tornado threat for north/central Maryland and then it will switch to more of a wind threat as it becomes more linear moving East? Ik bowing line segments can produce tornadoes but always thought they were more associated with high winds. The thinking is more linear as it moves eastward towards the coast, and reading the discussion from Mount Holly they think the most likely place for a tornado is in Cecil over into Newcastle in DE up into SE PA. Possibly some interaction with the warm front lying across that area, backing the flow some is my guess. Bigger overall threat will be damaging straight line winds, with fairly strong winds aloft and decent Dcape. Bowing segments generally produce straight line winds but can also produce tornadoes as vorticity sometimes develops on the north/south end of the line. How far north are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 First strong cell of the day north of Winchester. Intense lightning on the lightning map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Mean Storm Motion for today will be 263, 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Hello, SPC? Hello? Time to get that box issued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Cell crossing I81 spiking tops to about 45kft...lightning inceeasing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, high risk said: Hello, SPC? Hello? Time to get that box issued. Its being processed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 18z HRRR for Baltimore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Red Box going all the way down to CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Cell NE of Frederick has some broad rotation and is starting to get that “look”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 SPC issues Tornado Watch until 0200 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: SPC issues Tornado Watch until 0200 UTC. Hail to 1 inch and isolated significant gusts to 75mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 667 WWUS20 KWNS 031938 SEL5 SPC WW 031938 DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-040200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE GREATER WASHINGTON D.C. AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS A CLUSTER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID-EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DE TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER MD. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 SVR w/ TOR possible tag for Mt. Airy/ Damascus/New Market 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 60/20 tor probs 70/30 wind probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SVR w/ TOR possible tag for Mt. Airy/ Damascus/New Market The game is afoot! Warning up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 SVR w/ TOR possible tag for Mt. Airy/ Damascus/New MarketGot warned pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Tornado warning Carroll/Howard/Frederick in MD till 415pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Yeah - that one east of Frederick got dangerous quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Not a lot of lightning and the tops are low on the carroll cell. I'm more interested in the ones along I81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 The stuff between Fauquier and south of Frederick looks to be pretty linear. Charlestown cell is doing a good job at staying discrete for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... At 354 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Mount Airy, or near Damascus, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Eldersburg around 415 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 That Tornado warned storm is to my East. Storm coming over from VA to my west is warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 More stuff back in WV along I79 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: More stuff back in WV along I79 corridor. As you said before - that will probably favor the more southern folks. WOuld assume the current activity in NoVA and Maryland may stabilize us pretty effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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