weatherCCB Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Underperformed here as well. Looked like a legit bow echo. 30mph at best. Heavy rain at least. Picked up 0.88” in about 35min. On to tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Nothing severe here but absolutely pouring with some T & L. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Those are some nasty soundings on the 00z NAM from 18z THURS to 03z FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 The sw edge of this line moving through Wye Mills looks potent. I think that will slide south of me, Booming thunder now. 0.92" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth. I don't really understand why the line was so meh. The 00z IAD sounding isn't bad. Maybe the CAPE is a bit tall and skinny, and deep layer shear is marginal, but I would have expected an organized line like that to have a lot more wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: The sw edge of this line moving through Wye Mills looks potent. I think that will slide south of me, Booming thunder now. 0.92" so far Again with the no sprinkler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Tomorrow will make up for tonight's underperformer. Some lightning strikes so far but the heaviest is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Tomorrow will make up for tonight's underperformer. Some lightning strikes so far but the heaviest is south. Getting in on the edge of that severe area here now. Booming house rattling thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Denton is gonna get clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Incredible thunder and lighting with this second part. Just unplugged all my high end audio gear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 37 minutes ago, yoda said: Those are some nasty soundings on the 00z NAM from 18z THURS to 03z FRI Those were at KIAD... KDCA and KEZF look a bit more nasty... along with KBWI too ETA: especially that sounding at KBWI at 00z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Looks like its over here, No wind, which is fine with me. Impressive deluge and back end electrical storm with the following cell. 1.45" Y'all can have tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 If @JakkelWx gets a super cell over his yard I'll go chase it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: If @JakkelWx gets a super cell over his yard I'll go chase it though. Watch out for flying cows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Evening AFD LWX disco update for tomorrow Dry weather should start our day on Thursday with temperatures in the 70s. Another threat for severe thunderstorms, higher in the risk category to Enhanced Risk, will unfold around midday and linger through the afternoon. Thursday`s severe activity may be more so between 3pm and 6pm, rather than 6pm to 9pm like this evening`s activity. Activity should be more earlier in the day. The front to our north will be a trough that will meander to the east during the day Thursday before a cold front approaches Thursday night. CAPE values will increase above 2000 as temperatures and moisture increase during the day. Wind shear will also be present and could be more significant than this evening`s activity. As a matter of fact, the threat for tornadoes becomes more pronounced Thursday. Thursday could be a very dangerous environment. We will to need monitor the changing weather situation to determine the timing, coverage and risk for severe weather Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 You don't see them often in these parts, but I wouldn't be completely surprised to see hatched tornado probs added by SPC tomorrow. 00z NAM soundings are wicked across northern VA and MD. Baltimore area: Northern VA: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Many things to like about Thursday afternoon, but I'd sure like to see some stronger 10m wind speeds. There will be mesos for sure, but we need some better speeds at the sfc to really get a legit TOR event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 I believe this is the last event that had hatched tor probs in the LWX CWA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20160224 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe this is the last event that had hatched tor probs in the LWX CWA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20160224 I believe June 2008 may be the next one before that? That event was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, thunderman said: I believe June 2008 may be the next one before that? That event was a bust. June 4th and June 10th and June 16th 2008 were MOD risks... but for wind down here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 New day 1 is out.... 0600 OTLK is ENH risk with 10 TOR/5 HAIL/30 WIND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 2 hours ago, yoda said: June 4th and June 10th and June 16th 2008 were MOD risks... but for wind down here June 1 2012 was a Moderate Risk day in DC/Baltimore area for Tornadoes and SPC added hatched for TOR at 20z a busted forecast. Storms coming across WVA right now look early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: June 1 2012 was a Moderate Risk day in DC/Baltimore area for Tornadoes and SPC added hatched for TOR at 20z a busted forecast. Storms coming across WVA right now look early. I wouldn't say busted looking at the reports https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, yoda said: I wouldn't say busted looking at the reports https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601 You are correct on the number of tornado reports. I should have said the hatched area did not have any strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 6z 3km NAM suggestive of super cells transitioning to QLCS. Has what appears to be a bowing segment with a cyclonic head developing and moving towards the lower eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Awful lot of clouds out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 was texting Ava a bit this morning -- she thinks Baltimore south has better chances than north due to morning rain/clouds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: was texting Ava a bit this morning #humblebrag 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: #humblebrag she calls me sometimes too! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Awful lot of clouds out there. Scattered high clouds here but more blue then clouds. Steamy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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