mappy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 49 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Let's go for the biblical ice storm or the mass solar storm that sends us back to the 1800s. no ice storm please! the feb 2015 one was pretty sucky up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, mappy said: no ice storm please! the feb 2015 one was pretty sucky up this way How about the 2007 Sleetfest. That one was amazing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: How about the 2007 Sleetfest. That one was amazing. i wasn't in the area for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 There are some PDS TOR soundings showing up on the NAM nest for both today and tomorrow The NAM nest reflectivity looks great for DC tomorrow - less so for @mappy. Taking the NAM nest at face value would put the bigger emphasis on tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 52 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 12z HRRR argues for a period of sunshine around DC for a little while at least. Even without full heating, the lapse rates today in the forecast soundings look good, so I don't think we need to get much above 84 or so to have an active late day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 To be honest - the parameters (and I know these don't necessarily guarantee anything) for today and tomorrow look about as good as any event we've seen this year so far. If we can get decently unstable tomorrow I could see it being a 10% tor day - especially given that text from SPC in the day 2. Very doubtful they'd introduce that until D1 though. I think a lot of areas will see storms this PM - the question is how severe they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: In EJ's world, we only hit these if they are billion-dollar disasters. So, still due I'm always skeptical of severe in these parts of the country. We have so many things that can and do go wrong (terrain, CAD, etc.) that it's hard to get excited until the event is unfolding or right on top of you. Even the other week we had a DY1 ENH that was crapola. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 12 hours ago, AdamHLG said: Just curious. This was posted Jan 20. It’s now September 1. How did we do? Looks like we hit number 2 and number 3. Not number 1. Jury still out on 4? 2020 not done yet.. We got #1 (NE MD into PA) and #2 Isaias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: To be honest - the parameters (and I know these don't necessarily guarantee anything) for today and tomorrow look about as good as any event we've seen this year so far. If we can get decently unstable tomorrow I could see it being a 10% tor day - especially given that text from SPC in the day 2. Very doubtful they'd introduce that until D1 though. I think a lot of areas will see storms this PM - the question is how severe they will be. Hard to argue with this. I'm still more bullish for today than most, but I understand the question marks. For tomorrow, the potential is real. My only concerns are the weaker lapse rates (although they are now progged a bit better than earlier guidance) and potential weak sfc wind speeds (although the NAM nest seems to be weaker than some other models) I'd still prefer today's lapse rates with tomorrow's wind profiles, but good luck getting those two to align in this region..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Hard to argue with this. I'm still more bullish for today than most, but I understand the question marks. For tomorrow, the potential is real. My only concerns are the weaker lapse rates (although they are now progged a bit better than earlier guidance) and potential weak sfc wind speeds (although the NAM nest seems to be weaker than some other models) I'd still prefer today's lapse rates with tomorrow's wind profiles, but good luck getting those two to align in this region..... And of course - knowing our area we will find a way to blank on both today AND tomorrow. Latest HRRR still looks good for storms this PM but with pretty garden variety intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: There are some PDS TOR soundings showing up on the NAM nest for both today and tomorrow The NAM nest reflectivity looks great for DC tomorrow - less so for @mappy. Taking the NAM nest at face value would put the bigger emphasis on tomorrow. eh, ill take whatever we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Sun keeps showing it’s face intermittently. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 15z HRRR has backed down a bit. Shows one big cell in the Baltimore metro area this evening but nothing for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 15z HRRR has backed down a bit. Shows one big cell in the Baltimore metro area this evening but nothing for everyone else. I-795 special with a UHI track to boot. EDIT: We're getting slighted for DY1 with the PM update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Yep - looks like slight for TOR and Wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Interesting the SPC discussions have been more often than not referencing "CAT 2/SLGT" type language recently. Wonder if a relabeling is coming in the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I think social science has led to the ref on numbers. They have been in many of their graphics for a while. We tend to always mention numbers ourselves ... a level one of five, etc. Figures I'm in Cape Cod. Enjoy the wedges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ian said: I think social science has led to the ref on numbers. They have been in many of their graphics for a while. We tend to always mention numbers ourselves ... a level one of five, etc. Figures I'm in Cape Cod. Enjoy the wedges. Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Sure sounds like Ian is onboard to me. The new D2 should be an interesting read...assuming they don't do one of those things where they just rephrase the old discussion and make no changes to the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event? I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I only had to whine for 23 hours before SPC finally put us in the SLGT risk we warranted. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Just now, high risk said: I only had to whine for 23 hours before SPC finally put us in the SLGT risk we warranted. Whining only travels at the speed of sounds, hence the delay in getting out to Oklahoma. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ian said: I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. It's always nice when you pop back in here. Miss the 2008/2012 type days. Fall can be really boring other than awesome weather around these parts - be nice if we could get some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ian said: I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Enhanced wow. 10% D2 tornado with a DC area jackpot and 30% wind. That's impressive for this part of the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Enhanced wow. For today or tomorrow? SPC still showing SLGT for me for both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 minute ago, WeatherShak said: For today or tomorrow? SPC still showing SLGT for me for both days. Tomorrow. The new D2 is out on the COD Kamala site. Paging @yoda 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Tomorrow. The new D2 is out on the COD Kamala site. Paging @yoda Wasn't aware of that page/product. Thanks! Bookmarked now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Wasn't aware of that page/product. Thanks! Bookmarked now. It tends to update a few minutes faster than the actual SPC site. Useful for us weenies that hit F5/refresh waiting anxiously for the new updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 This is from the 12z HREF on the SPC page. Clearly shows the area that SPC is highlighting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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