Stormfly Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 53 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today Figured as much. We get about two ENH a year and this is our second. All they'd have to do is move MD down to the gulf, Laura would fall apart faster than a Harbor Freight vacuum cleaner! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Quick hit by a bit of rain <0.10" and wind (~30mph). Some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Shelfie as storm approaches 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 48 minutes ago, CAPE said: Too much inverted V. This will probably congeal nicely on the lower eastern shore. Likely to see a lot of that this winter too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 00z NAM looks intriguing sounding-wise for late Friday afternoon into the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 I think it was today that looked good on SPC the other day, now there’s nothing? Maybe I was looking at the wrong day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Looks like there may be a bow line segment hooking gradually southeast with the classic backbuilding over my area. Then rounds of storms more widespread in coverage throughout the overnight hours with a better chance for severe weather tomorrow, as the SPC highlighted a SLGT risk over much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 rare morning MD for severe coming out of PA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone. SPC Outlook even has "the look" to back that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone. The NAM looks good. Its happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA. thats good, cause i didn't get shit out of that when it came south, so if i can get something from its leftover boundary, that'd be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 28, 2020 Author Share Posted August 28, 2020 HRRR has multiple waves for decent chunks of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, 40westwx said: The NAM looks good. Its happening. Ha, was just coming here to post that. It's probably wrong, but the NAM looks good for late tonight and tomorrow for being quite active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Wouldn't be surprised if they didn't upgrade the whole region to a SLGT, low level lapse rates are getting pretty decent and better ML lapse rates are moving in from the west. Sufficient shear for more organized clusters as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 The lone warned cell in Central PA so far has been the only thing producing sustained damage reports. That is probably being fed by a little vort max or something. I would argue it's probably going to be the main show and would scrape through Baltimore and Harford counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1630 SPC OTLK SLGT risk for most of LWX CWA into C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 All of LWX and Delmarva (north of US 50) added to the DY1 slight...15% wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1630 disco ...OH to Mid-Atlantic States... Ongoing convective clusters across eastern OH into western PA will have the potential to intensify as one or more of them shifts east of the Appalachians later this afternoon. Boundary-layer destabilization is becoming increasingly pronounced east of the Appalachians and some CAMs suggest a leading cluster could accelerate it spreads towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. This renders confidence in increasing the severe risk to cat 2/SLGT here. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms with some congealing into multicell clusters are likely across the Upper OH Valley. Scattered damaging winds will be the primary hazard across all regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 not much to add. The CAMs really ramped up this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Wouldn't be surprised if they didn't upgrade the whole region to a SLGT, low level lapse rates are getting pretty decent and better ML lapse rates are moving in from the west. Sufficient shear for more organized clusters as well. Nailed it 1 minute ago, high risk said: not much to add. The CAMs really ramped up this morning HDRPS is a weenie run for later this afternoon and evening with multiple rounds possible overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 With the increase in SVRs and now even a TOR in PA, I'm surprised a severe thunderstorm watch hasn't been issued at least for southern PA and into northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 STW till 8pm for northern 2/3rds of LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: With the increase in SVRs and now even a TOR in PA, I'm surprised a severe thunderstorm watch hasn't been issued at least for southern PA and into northern MD. its up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Just now, mappy said: its up now Yea that line has really lit up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Dang this is underrated. We were under a marginal risk but the instability is there for a memorable QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 SPC summary says line extends to 25 miles southwest of Balto. It looks like more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea that line has really lit up. holy cow, no kidding. last i looked it was pretty tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Come south!!!! Thats all I ask for!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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