bluehens Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Will this derecho get to the east coast? Last thing we need is that wind after all that rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, bluehens said: Will this derecho get to the east coast? Last thing we need is that wind after all that rain. No - it will likely curve southeast and south with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Insanity on that derecho. Reports of 20 minutes of sustained winds of 80+ mph eta: Midway, IA had a gust to 112! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Here's one of the cams in Chicago to watch as the line approaches: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, nj2va said: Here's one of the cams in Chicago to watch as the line approaches: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum This is exactly the cam I have been watching for 30 min. I have Radarscope dialed in too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Alas, the Earth Cams are no match for both a derecho and a storm-watching public. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, jacindc said: Alas, the Earth Cams are no match for both a derecho and a storm-watching public. I watched it. It was meh. The trees blew a bit. I'm sure there will be localized reports of damage. But the video was meh. Back to watching the tropics again, the lack of severe weather in Baltimore, and the early 'winter is over' discussion on the other threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 Time sensitive and no match to watching the derecho but check out that little storm that hopped right over Warrenton. Following that outflow boundary I guess but that was one heck of a head fake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Looks like next chance for severe might by the Sunday-Monday time frame... LWX mentions potential briefly in their long term disco this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Severe threat should increase gradually a little each day through the weekend I think. That being said, I think flooding will be the biggest issue. Some impressive PWATS modeled in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 Maybe a few isolated woo storms today. Nothing to write home about it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Maybe a few isolated woo storms today. Nothing to write home about it seems. most guidance has a decent (albeit slightly broken) line moving through during the dinner hour, but yeah, soundings are not very impressive. That said, if the storms really do organize and form a cold pool, a few decent gusts are not out of the question (consistent with the SPC MRGL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Maybe a few isolated woo storms today. Nothing to write home about it seems. Well if they're nothing to get excited about, why the heck would they be called "WOO!!!!" storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2020 Author Share Posted August 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well if they're nothing to get excited about, why the heck would they be called "WOO!!!!" storms? Any storm is a woo storm. Lightning and thunder make most of us pretty happy. The odds of getting minivan sized hail and derecho winds are like 1 in 398375475973498579345 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Any storm is a woo storm. Lightning and thunder make most of us pretty happy. The odds of getting minivan sized hail and derecho winds are like 1 in 398375475973498579345 around here. And that's a GOOD thing! Being in a storm heading to shelter while your house is coming apart is terrifying. And going in the attic afterward and it looks like you have a dozen skylights but they are holes from giant hail... Granted I was 12 when that happened but I remember it well. All the insurance adjusters, contractors, et al. And my parents complaining about higher insurance premiums! Now they live in FL and (still) complain when it goes up. LOL In these parts it seems we do get legit severe but you have to be in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Stormfly said: And that's a GOOD thing! Being in a storm heading to shelter while your house is coming apart is terrifying. And going in the attic afterward and it looks like you have a dozen skylights but they are holes from giant hail... Granted I was 12 when that happened but I remember it well. All the insurance adjusters, contractors, et al. And my parents complaining about higher insurance premiums! Now they live in FL and (still) complain when it goes up. LOL In these parts it seems we do get legit severe but you have to be in the bullseye. Yeah. I can do without all the death and destruction. Just give me rain and a light show and I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 I'm definitely on board with the SPC day 4 outlook. Even though the best dynamics will be northeast of here, it looks like we'll have good lapse rates with moderate instability, some downdraft cape, decent flow aloft, and height falls with a well-timed short wave. Definitely a wind damage threat for DC metro and points north and northeast if the current models solutions hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 22, 2020 Author Share Posted August 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm definitely on board with the SPC day 4 outlook. Even though the best dynamics will be northeast of here, it looks like we'll have good lapse rates with moderate instability, some downdraft cape, decent flow aloft, and height falls with a well-timed short wave. Definitely a wind damage threat for DC metro and points north and northeast if the current models solutions hold. @weatherwiz - over on his IG was mentioning some EML potential in that time frame I believe. Something to track locally sure beats the doldrums that can set in pretty quickly. Isaias feels like ancient history already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 SLGT risk for Tuesday... mainly for damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2020 Author Share Posted August 23, 2020 NAM parameters (yes I know it's the NAM at long range) would argue that Wednesday is the better severe potential day perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 SLGT risk for Tuesday and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Excerpt from Mount Holly AFD this morning on tomorrow's potential- As we move into the day on Tuesday, the weather looks like it will become quite interesting. Guidance continues to indicate a convective complex should develop Tuesday morning.. . A stronger shortwave will track from the Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic quickly during the day and push the convective complex towards the southwest. Strong deep layer shear, and steering flow in excess of 40kts should lead to forward propagating storms. Equilibrium levels will be quite tall and so storms will likely become quite tall with >40kft echo tops possible. With quite a bit of instability out ahead of the lifting mechanism, up stream initiation looks likely. As was mentioned by the day shift yesterday, wet bulb zero heights appear to be too tall to see large hail, so the main threat for any severe will be strong to possible damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 I still like a number of things about tomorrow, although downsloping always complicates an event like this. The nice shortwave and moderate downdraft cape certainly suggest a wind threat for any storms that do make it into our area. Wednesday has even better wind fields, but right now, the shortwaves don't time well for us - that could change...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 SPC Day 2 now has has the DC-Baltimore corridor included within an ENH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2020 Author Share Posted August 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, high risk said: SPC Day 2 now has has the DC-Baltimore corridor included within an ENH. It's been a while since we've seen a D2 ENH. Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 I’m probably going to be missed by a very slow moving storm, it’ll probably slip north by 2 miles or so. I think I can already hear the thunder from it... Edit: it heard me post that, it’s now disintegrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 ENH risk for today... moved slightly more to the west and south across N VA and C MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 Day 2 SVR SLGT risk moved to our NW... SLGT in C MD/NW VA/E WV.... DC/BWI/EZF in MRGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 25, 2020 Share Posted August 25, 2020 The damaging wind threat looks legit for later today where convection develops/propagates. Pulled this forecast sounding off the 3km NAM . Steep lapse rates in the low/mid levels, dry air aloft, impressive Dcape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2020 Author Share Posted August 25, 2020 NICE inverted V signature on that sounding. Also...anybody see the day 3 hatching well to our north? Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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