southmdwatcher Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 4.09" last night, 10.83" since June 1 and 14.96 since May 1st. Loud and sleepless night. Just a couple miles east had well over 6 inches of rain last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Slow day...Check out that outflow boundary in Nebraska though. Wild looking...time sensitive of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, Scraff said: I am practically around the corner from you, but just a mile or two made a difference for us. I’m straddling that green and yellow. I hope all of Eastern Hoco gets some reds today though. While the exciting stuff has been East of 95, most areas west are bone dry. I’m talking grass full brown. With the exception of something tropical, majority of the area looks like a hot and dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted July 12, 2020 Share Posted July 12, 2020 Oof, that same night on the 7th I was being sulky on here because it seemed the storms wouldn't make it to Southern MD...it actually ended up being a decent night of storms. Glanced at GRLevel3 just in time to run out & watch for a while. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Nice video! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 18, 2020 Author Share Posted July 18, 2020 Coming back from vacation tomorrow. Are we tracking anything upcoming in the near future, or is it just wall to wall heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 35 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Coming back from vacation tomorrow. Are we tracking anything upcoming in the near future, or is it just wall to wall heat? I’m tracking the location of the nearest Air Conditioned area... so, really just wall to wall heat for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 18, 2020 Author Share Posted July 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: I’m tracking the location of the nearest Air Conditioned area... so, really just wall to wall heat for a bit. Lovely...can I stay on vacation for another 2 weeks then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Lovely...can I stay on vacation for another 2 weeks then? The weather will be waiting for your decision, as I cannot make that for you. Shall you choose to stay, the weather you so badly want will arrive wherever you aren’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 3 straight days of MRGL risk is pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Another MRGL risk for today... mainly for damaging wind gusts SLGT risk for Wednesday... again for damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 8 hours ago, yoda said: Another MRGL risk for today... mainly for damaging wind gusts SLGT risk for Wednesday... again for damaging winds Yup, beefy SBCAPe/DCAPE = localized woo storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Mount Holly AFD on the severe threat for Wed- Kind of a mixed bag in terms of environmental parameters. Temperatures will no doubt be on the hot side, but MLCAPE values are somewhat of a question mark due to uncertainty in how much mixing will occur. While MLCAPE will certainly be sufficient for convection, there is disagreement on whether values will be "good" or "great". If dew points mix down into the 60s, convection may struggle to develop or weaken as it approaches, as some of the CAMs suggest. However, if dew points remain in the 70s, instability will be greater. So mesoanalysis with regards to the dew points will be important. In terms of shear, deep layer flow will increase as the shortwave approaches. Bulk shear has trended down a bit, and may only be in the range of 25 to 30 kt, whereas yesterday 35 kt or slightly greater looked achievable. SRH parameters also do not look as impressive, with shear profiles looking increasingly unidirectional, not to mention the generally weak low level flow. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, it is a low risk, and the better chance for that will probably be to our north where SRH is better. Given warm low levels, modest mid-level lapse rates (around 6C/km), and likelihood for linear convective organization, severe hail is also a fairly low risk. So the main hazard is going to be damaging wind. Shear values, while not great, should be sufficient for some organized multicell convection, with some of the CAMs suggesting an MCS is possible. Difficult to pin down where exactly the greatest threat is, with still a fairly wide spread in CAM solutions, hence the continued broad-brushed slight risk area in the SWODY2. Would generally favor areas further west and south (E PA and Delmarva) for the greatest chance of severe weather since they should have the best instability and since diurnal timing looks most favorable there, but a risk exists everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Pretty hail core! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Maybe a hook? Lines up with a little bit of broad rotation. jk that lasted only one frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 SLGT risk for severe today... damaging winds look to be biggest threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 6 hours ago, yoda said: SLGT risk for severe today... damaging winds look to be biggest threat Are they making it SLGT due to the rain we’re still having from this system, or more storms in the afternoon? edit: nevermind, read the text thingy. The thunder lasted forever, and was very loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 Some of the high res models are unusually robust for today (on the reflectivity maps). The ARW, ARW2 and the NMM all are lighting the area up pretty good this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 12z NAM nest is a whiff for the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 12z NAM nest is a whiff for the DC area We'll see how that holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 80% on the meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1310.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Future mesoanalysis has a 4,500 CAPE bullseye over MD's eastern shore this afternoon. Will be interesting to see how strong the storms get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 22, 2020 Author Share Posted July 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 80% on the meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1310.html Wow. Early meso with high probs. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Wow. Early meso with high probs. Nice. We have a lot of DCAPE. Going to be some good wind reports today and some interesting multicell clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Is this a traditional west to East event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Is this a traditional west to East event? it looks to be that way, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Is this a traditional west to East event? Yeah... It sure seems like we've not seen too many of those events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, mappy said: it looks to be that way, yes. So boring with that west to east crap. Give me southwest to northeast woo storms. Way more fun ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 Watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 22, 2020 Share Posted July 22, 2020 1 hour ago, H2O said: Watch issued Do you have the language in the watch? Winds to 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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