JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Lifted indices of -10 in northern DE and a small spot of 5,000 SBCAPE as well. I see turkey tower clouds everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 80% of a WW: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1116.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Heavy rain potential issued by WPC for DE and northeast MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 80% of a WW: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1116.html Weird shape for a meso. Slight now added too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Weird shape for a meso. Slight now added too. Accounts for meso boundaries. While definitely a true lower end slight for today, beefy SBCAPE and DCAPE means someone is gonna get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Heavy rain potential issued by WPC for DE and northeast MD. FF watch also up for MD burbs and Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 FFW expanded to include Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 No FFW here, probably because of abnormally dry conditions raising FFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 12z IAD RAOB has a ConvT of 91°. Philly hit 91° and things went boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: HRRR is pretty darn similar with regards to sim reflectivity. Somebody EAST of a line running from like Shrewsbury, PA to Largo, MD is going to get a nice storm this afternoon. NAM nest even has a really good stripe of UD helicity along the MD/DE border. argh, can we include me in that? need the rain. i'm 10 min south of Shrewsbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z IAD RAOB has a ConvT of 91°. Philly hit 91° and things went boom. Wow, that Philly area and especially just northeast of there is going to/getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Wow, that Philly area and especially just northeast of there is going to/getting crushed. Radar estimates crossing 3" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 I-95 East event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 32 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: No FFW here, probably because of abnormally dry conditions raising FFG Yeah its a freaking desert here now. Not easy to flood here in general. Outflow boundary action should be fun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Severe thunderstorm watch re Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2020 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC001-003-013-033-047-057-059-061-065-079-099-103-107-109-113- 125-133-137-153-157-159-177-179-193-510-540-600-610-630-683-685- 070300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0333.200706T1735Z-200707T0300Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON CAROLINE CULPEPER ESSEX FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNA GREENE KING GEORGE LANCASTER LOUDOUN LOUISA MADISON NELSON NORTHUMBERLAND ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 03:00 UTC Tues, 7/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Craven/Brooks SigSvr up to 40 in SEPA with 30+ all around the area along with a wide expanse of 4,500 J/kg SBCAPE/3000-3500 MLCAPE and DCAPE values 900-1100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 Microburst parameter looking good in the urban corridor from DC to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today. For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west. It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon. (HRRR is most aggressive.) Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, high risk said: No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today. For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west. It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon. (HRRR is most aggressive.) Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay. Seems both the NAM nest and the HRRR (even with any dew mixing) keep areas at least a bit inland (west) from the bay in the game. Annapolis might still be a good place for storms. Definitely will be a nowcast type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Painful watching that huge blob just sit and explode over Philly. Wonder if some localized areas make a run at double-digit rainfall total up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Painful watching that huge blob just sit and explode over Philly. Wonder if some localized areas make a run at double-digit rainfall total up there. Grew up in Philly. Big urban watersheds that flash quickly and have killed folks swimming in the creeks or fishing. The spike on discharge in Frankford Creek right now is something you only see during tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Flooding rescues happening in Philly currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 5000 SBCAPE on mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: 5000 SBCAPE on mesoanalysis. Man it would be sick if something triggered right around sunset. Get a nice overnight light show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man it would be sick if something triggered right around sunset. Get a nice overnight light show. Visible satellite of that Philly cluster looks like a nuke went off! They are getting walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 I think we have to hope that the outflow from the Philly activity can join up with some of the boundaries like the bay breeze and such around us to trigger stuff. Dews have some down at some stations in the area - still high along the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 hour ago, high risk said: No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today. For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west. It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon. (HRRR is most aggressive.) Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay. I'm not buying the HRRR mix out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I think we have to hope that the outflow from the Philly activity can join up with some of the boundaries like the bay breeze and such around us to trigger stuff. Dews have some down at some stations in the area - still high along the bay. yeah, not sure there is enough of a trigger without a boundary to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 CU field is pretty crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now