Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2020 Author Share Posted June 22, 2020 Day 2 on the 0z CIPS guidance. Doubtful the result will match how robust this looks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 11:52 AM, Kmlwx said: Day 2 on the 0z CIPS guidance. Doubtful the result will match how robust this looks. Expand Agreed, although tomorrow is interesting, because while the deep layer shear is still weak, there is a fair amount of low level shear. Instability is no worry, and there will be a good trigger, so I think it's worth watching. I'm a bit surprised by the MRGL today. Shear is really, really sad, and even the approaching MCV won't boost the mid-level flow much at all. That said, storms will become fairly organized with the approaching lift, and organization always yields the potential for some coldpool development, so a few wind events likely can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 4:06 AM, Kmlwx said: Seems tomorrow and Tuesday could have some iso instances of severe. Also - I'm late to the party but it looks like the HRRRv4 is no more. It hasn't been sending data from NCEP - I noticed it on the COD site. Does this mean they'll bring back the v3? Or is v3 the operational? Expand I think the HRRRv4 is going to be transitioning to the operational HRRR soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2020 Author Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 3:03 PM, MN Transplant said: I think the HRRRv4 is going to be transitioning to the operational HRRR soon. Expand That's good to hear. I had seen some chatter on Twitter about NCEP declaring it "unstable" and "freezing development" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 3:03 PM, MN Transplant said: I think the HRRRv4 is going to be transitioning to the operational HRRR soon. Expand nope. likely delayed until late fall. The recent problems, however, explain why no data is currently available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 3:04 PM, Kmlwx said: That's good to hear. I had seen some chatter on Twitter about NCEP declaring it "unstable" and "freezing development" Expand yes, it crashed multiple times during its final stability test, so more testing is required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 woo storms today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 3:32 PM, mappy said: woo storms today? Expand That actually happens around here ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Given strong insoltation and decent LL but weak ML lapse rates, there definitely is a wet microburst potential today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 3:04 PM, Kmlwx said: That's good to hear. I had seen some chatter on Twitter about NCEP declaring it "unstable" and "freezing development" Expand On 6/22/2020 at 3:05 PM, high risk said: nope. likely delayed until late fall. The recent problems, however, explain why no data is currently available. Expand Ah, crud. I was going off the AMS presentation from January and the website which still has June 30th-early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 4:08 PM, MN Transplant said: Ah, crud. I was going off the AMS presentation from January and the website which still has June 30th-early July. Expand Yeah, documentation needs to be updated, and nothing is finalized yet until it can be demonstrated that it's stable, but it's not going to be implemented any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 CU field went from nothing to popcorn in like 40 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 22, 2020 Author Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 4:29 PM, H2O said: CU field went from nothing to popcorn in like 40 min Expand Mesoanalysis has SBCAPE coming up through 3500 in a large area. Very good DCAPE already too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 12z balloon from IAD has a Convective Temp of 87° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 85/74 muggggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Sustained convection east of I-81 will probably be sparse through 4pm. Despite the ConvT being reached the shear is minimal so it's going to be hard to sustain the updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 5:12 PM, mappy said: 85/74 muggggy Expand Can confirm its gross outside. It was gross at 8am too. and 9am, and 10 am. you get the picture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 I’m not counting on much around my parts...seems decent consensus that strongest storms are well west of the metro and begin to dissipate around sunset. Don’t think much makes it this Far East but good luck to you western folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 A much needed downpour happening here. Only a bit of thunder and a few moderate gusts to 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Seems like we are getting the split right now. Nice storms to the west and then a nice cluster near Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 7:11 PM, osfan24 said: Seems like we are getting the split right now. Nice storms to the west and then a nice cluster near Richmond. Expand Yeah, I’m personally not expecting much over here in the Dundalk area but we’ll see. The Leesburg-Frederick-Westminster corridor looks pretty prime though right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 7:44 PM, Baltimorewx said: Yeah, I’m personally not expecting much over here in the Dundalk area but we’ll see. The Leesburg-Frederick-Westminster corridor looks pretty prime though right now Expand Trying to fill in around DC. Lots of warnings up right now for region for a marginal risk day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 I expect the storms to dissipate within minutes now seeing that yellow circle which we are in the middle of, pop up! Yes, another slight. As in slight push closer to the edge of (fill in the blank!) Seriously though, it looks like it could be a busy evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Little pop up cell just came through Bethesda with the most impressive winds thus far this year. Was over in about 5 minutes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 cloud to ground lightning here. most energetic storm of the season in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 Shelf 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 On 6/22/2020 at 7:52 PM, osfan24 said: Trying to fill in around DC. Lots of warnings up right now for region for a marginal risk day. Expand Looks like the west side of Baltimore will get it the worst. Still kinda unknown if my area will get anything lol might get bypassed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 0.0 for the past 4 days.....parched. What a string of bad luck.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 22, 2020 Share Posted June 22, 2020 winds got really close to severe limits here in southern Howard County . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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