Baltimorewx Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 I don’t expect much down here today. Should be prime for some stuff tomorrow though. Got the top off on the jeep to circulate some air in there so I’ll keep an eye on radar today just in case lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 For those of you who are interested in Derecho's and high-end MCS, I've done some loose analysis of events from 1998 on and found that 3/4 MCS or derechoes that really affect the heart of the LWX/AKQ CWA all pass along or south of Pittsburgh. Anything north of there either just scrapes the northern Baltimore suburbs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 0.5°BR/BV appears to show a SW to NE oriented boundary running from Loudoun to Montgomery to Howard counties...it's slowly pushing back north and might act as the focus for some convection this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 40% meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0798.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Hrrr actually not as anemic as it was for later . Several cells popping 0z on later I’m not seeing what you’re saying. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 40% meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0798.html Surprised it's even 40%. I guess the boundary bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 18z NAM nest is FIERCE for the immediate metro area tomorrow between 22z and 00z roughly. Even some decent UD helicity swaths. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Maybe some get the storms warned in N WV that are moving SE later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: A big ol bowing segment towards DC and Baltimore. Looks wicked. Long range Hrrr v4 is real busy tomorrow fwiw . Messier convective mode than the NAM nest, though. We'll see what the CAMs do in subsequent runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Messier convective mode than the NAM nest, though. We'll see what the CAMs do in subsequent runs. yes, but there is still some organization and a clear sfc cold pool. Deep layer shear isn't quite as good as in some other CAMs, but the inverted-V sounding structure will definitely promote robust cold pool formation. I think we'll wake up tomorrow in a SLGT. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, high risk said: yes, but there is still some organization and a clear sfc cold pool. Deep layer shear isn't quite as good as in some other CAMs, but the inverted-V sounding structure will definitely promote robust cold pool formation. I think we'll wake up tomorrow in a SLGT. High risk or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 34 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: High risk or bust PDS otherwise just give me some decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 I’d like ~1.5” of rain like the gfs keeps giving me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d like ~1.5” of rain like the gfs keeps giving me 18z 3km NAM looks wet for much of the region. 2"+ for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: 18z 3km NAM looks wet for much of the region. 2"+ for many areas. I’ll take that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Tornado Warning for Philly. Talk about a day up there. Looks like some widely scattered activity could sneak down here in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 PHL area has been hit good twice today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hopefully but I'm not as confident as I was . Winds are due west and dews drying out here . 73 dew 2 hours ago with a nw wind .. Currently 83/65 Any kind of westerly wind is never a great sign for us. Gotta have that southeast wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Current hrrr doesn't appear to lineup with current radar representation in southern Pa fwiw so maby northern areas can squeak a storm out before environment fizzles My $ would be on Harford/Cecil counties if anyone Yeah, that's it. The one storm farther west fell apart. Tomorrow looks interesting, maybe Friday, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 I'm seeing lightning from the cell that just ripped through Red Lion. We got a trace of precip today just before sunrise. Talk about a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That cell that blew through York is holding together and the only game in town. Extreme eastern Harford and probably more likely Cecil county looks inline. Had a glorious view of that York cell from southern Howard County. Could see a fair amount of lightning within it too. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 18z NAMNEST is really the only run/model that has anything other than a run-of-the-mill event. If you're looking for garden variety stuff with some pulse severe the majority of the guidance is on your side. I've learned over the years to disregard the NAMNEST when it's out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Very nice pic HR ! And that's what ...60 - 70 miles away. yep. about 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z NAMNEST is really the only run/model that has anything other than a run-of-the-mill event. If you're looking for garden variety stuff with some pulse severe the majority of the guidance is on your side. I've learned over the years to disregard the NAMNEST when it's out on its own. time to invoke this forum's scale for level of interest by user. It won't be any sort of high end day for sure, but I'm still feeling good about some organized line segments with severe potential tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 @high risk is correct... new morning Day 1 OTLK has SLGT for most of LWX CWA... 5% hail and 15% wind 0600z OTLK disco: Quote ...Mid Atlantic region... A corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints will persist east of the higher terrain and along southern periphery of belt of modest westerlies. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg is expected from VA and MD into southern PA and NJ. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and along lee trough as the boundary layer destabilizes. Vertical shear will remain weak, but 25-35 kt deep layer flow will support storms spreading east off the higher terrain, possibly evolving into loosely organized clusters capable of strong to damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 8 hours ago, high risk said: time to invoke this forum's scale for level of interest by user. It won't be any sort of high end day for sure, but I'm still feeling good about some organized line segments with severe potential tomorrow. I'm thinking a Yoda kind of day? My lawn will like some rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 12z 3k NAM is insulting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z 3k NAM is insulting alarming, to say the least. But the HRRR and HiResWindow ARW2 still like DC and areas north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2020 Author Share Posted June 4, 2020 This could end up being one of those 3 or 4 day periods when we just can't buy good storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Not feelin' it for my yard over the next day or 2. My sprinkler broke yesterday. Time to head to Lowes for a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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