high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: In my mind - the only two things that could "save" today are 1) An aggressive cold pool that performs better than expected at sustaining some sort of complex. 2) @Eskimo Joe's reminder that sometimes these things sag a bit more south and east than expected. But the fat lady is warming up. agreed. if something can race south earlier than progged, and the instability isn't killed by lowering dew points, northern and central MD could still be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, high risk said: agreed. if something can race south earlier than progged, and the instability isn't killed by lowering dew points, northern and central MD could still be in the game. The longer range HRRR and HRRRv4's are looking pretty decent for coverage in the area tomorrow. Severity is another question - but I'd say we'll get storms tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Severe TS watch for us. What an odd time to have one of those. I will be watching, however. Caught some lightning before dawn on the tower cam looking to our north. Popcorn just north of the MD line. 20 mile radius CG alert woke me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 not expecting much IMBY. we shall see how that complex evolves as it heads south. Not having a watch here doesn't mean much when i can drive 5 minutes north and be in the watch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, mappy said: not expecting much IMBY. we shall see how that complex evolves as it heads south. Not having a watch here doesn't mean much when i can drive 5 minutes north and be in the watch lol Do we need to revoke your weather weenie status?! We all know that unless you're actually in a watch - there won't be any severe even an inch outside the box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The longer range HRRR and HRRRv4's are looking pretty decent for coverage in the area tomorrow. Severity is another question - but I'd say we'll get storms tomorrow. Agreed. The 12z CAMs continue the idea of fairly good coverage of storms tomorrow. Deep layer shear isn't awesome, but it's probably enough for at least scattered SVR. The updated day 2 will maintain the MRGL for sure, and I wouldn't rule out a SLGT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 I'm scraping the weenie-ism barrel here - but maybe that line up in PA will leave a boundary along its southern edge to trigger something later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Agreed. The 12z CAMs continue the idea of fairly good coverage of storms tomorrow. Deep layer shear isn't awesome, but it's probably enough for at least scattered SVR. The updated day 2 will maintain the MRGL for sure, and I wouldn't rule out a SLGT. Seems like a multicell cluster/pulsey kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Seems like a multicell cluster/pulsey kind of day. It's not going to be a huge day, but most of the various CAMs show about 40 kt of deep layer shear and inverted-V soundings, so some organization of cold pools is quite possible. The explicit reflectivity solutions across the hi-res windows, NAM nest, HRRR do show some organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, high risk said: It's not going to be a huge day, but most of the various CAMs show about 40 kt of deep layer shear and inverted-V soundings, so some organization of cold pools is quite possible. The explicit reflectivity solutions across the hi-res windows, NAM nest, HRRR do show some organization. As much as I like snow - the one thing that I really like about severe season around here is that things can sneak up on your much more easily than with winter weather. Sure, we can get an overperforming clipper. But not often do you have something like a severe day that is expected to be nothing, and ends up with multiple tornadoes in the area. Happens semi frequently...you just ever know for sure what's going to happen (or not happen). Sure, we get burned more often than not - but the surprise days where we end up tracking hundreds of warnings is sure an adrenaline rush. And before anybody brings up the ethical thing...I don't HOPE for destruction - but if it's plowing through the area I'm of course going to be tracking it and fascinated by the mechanics behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 34 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Do we need to revoke your weather weenie status?! We all know that unless you're actually in a watch - there won't be any severe even an inch outside the box hahahaha no way -- still a severe weenie through and through. watching that squall dropping south, hoping i get something out of it. regardless, the afternoon looks great for a dip in the pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, mappy said: hahahaha no way -- still a severe weenie through and through. watching that squall dropping south, hoping i get something out of it. regardless, the afternoon looks great for a dip in the pool GOES 16 and the past few frames of CTP/LWX radar shows some convection firing as far southwest as Gettysburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GOES 16 and the past few frames of CTP/LWX radar shows some convection firing as far southwest as Gettysburg. Yes. The new MD mentions potential back building into north-central MD. Very little guidance has a good handle on the ongoing convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GOES 16 and the past few frames of CTP/LWX radar shows some convection firing as far southwest as Gettysburg. there is some scattered pockets of heavier rain out ahead of that line, that we will definitely get here. but the warned portion will miss me east. guess we shall see if anything pops up after the main squall moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 83mph gust in Reading, PA from that squall 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes. The new MD mentions potential back building into north-central MD. Very little guidance has a good handle on the ongoing convection. I did notice latest NAM shifted the line around some and gave more hope for our area. HRRR doesn't have much. At least it gives us something to watch today, and obviously the next few days. Been generally really boring weather-wise for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Tons of little showers just went up over MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 lol not a drop of rain, all the scattered stuff missed. boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Looks like all that stuff popping is just west of 95 and probably won't really blow up (if it even does) until it's too late and probably crossing the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 Dews are still well into the 60s at many stations in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, mappy said: 83mph gust in Reading, PA from that squall Brother in Reading, PA had 81 mph on his station, power out and trees down in a lot of place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 https://www.earthcam.com/usa/pennsylvania/philadelphia/?cam=philly Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Lame... line is going to completely miss to the north here. We drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, George BM said: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/pennsylvania/philadelphia/?cam=philly Enjoy. Yep, nice squall there. The camera shaking is making me dizzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Yep, nice squall there. The camera shaking is making me dizzy. Yeap. I haven't noticed any lightning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights Next in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Looks like a low end Derecho may have swept through PA and NJ...several 70 - mid 80 mph reports...substantial damage the utility infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Tons of little showers just went up over MD I had a sprinkle but that’s it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2020 Author Share Posted June 3, 2020 Dews are still 60+ almost everywhere. Even some stations at 64+. Could indicate a slightly increased chance of something later on. None of the models seem interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Dews are still 60+ almost everywhere. Even some stations at 64+. Could indicate a slightly increased chance of something later on. None of the models seem interested. The next few hours are when a drop in dew points would occur if it does. The HRRR was most aggressive with that southwest of DC - will be worth watching. Still 65 here. Also, the day 2 kept MRGL here, but the discussion specifically mentioned a potential upgrade for our area in later outlooks. I personally think there was enough in the morning guidance to give us a day 2 SLGT, but I'll defer to the experts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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