Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 18z GFS soundings for the severe potential this upcoming week have SARS results spitting out some big hail results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 18z NAM soundings (at range, I know) are still populating a crapton of hail soundings in SARS for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 00z NAM showing ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM for Wednesday afternoon into the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z NAM showing ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM for Wednesday afternoon into the evening Soundings for Wednesday definitely look great. Shoutout to Kmlwx for noting this threat way in advance. While the dynamics as currently progged aren't great, a nearby front and small height falls could be enough. If we can trigger storms, the setup for SVR will be pretty robust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, high risk said: Soundings for Wednesday definitely look great. Shoutout to Kmlwx for noting this threat way in advance. While the dynamics as currently progged aren't great, a nearby front and small height falls could be enough. If we can trigger storms, the setup for SVR will be pretty robust. Seems like with a lack of forcing - we might have to rely on a cold pool getting established. Has obviously helped us before. We'll see - still far enough out that anything is on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Will be interesting to see what the Day 3 SPC OTLK looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 9 hours ago, high risk said: Shoutout to Kmlwx for noting this threat way in advance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 7 hours ago, yoda said: Will be interesting to see what the Day 3 SPC OTLK looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 A bit north of us - @mappy is in the slight. Obviously expect tweaks as we get closer. D3 is an eternity away in severe forecasting. Do we all need a refresher that on June 29, 2012...DC proper was not even in the slight risk until the 20z update. Moderate not until the 01z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 This is what the first D1 outlook of the day looked like on June 29, 2012 - that is probably one of the most prolific "upgrades at game time" that this area has seen in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 2 hours ago, George BM said: went back through the thread, and I'm officially issuing my mea culpa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, high risk said: went back through the thread, and I'm officially issuing my mea culpa. I love this subforum. Always get a chuckle from the antics on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 12z NAM (12km) has mid-level lapse rates in the 7.6-7.9 range for 18z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 NAM nest at range has the timing not as favorable for us - by 0z (end of the run) the line is still up in PA for the most part. Would like to see that speed up a bit. It matches well with the SPC outlook of the best threat being to our north mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Not really enthused with Wednesday. If you go back and look at all the the mid to higher range MCS / derecho events in the LWX CWA, they contained historically hot antecedent airmasses. That won't be the case this week. Unless there is a substantial cold pool or EML I would temper my expectations for this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not really enthused with Wednesday. If you go back and look at all the the mid to higher range MCS / derecho events in the LWX CWA, they contained historically hot antecedent airmasses. That won't be the case this week. Unless there is a substantial cold pool or EML I would temper my expectations for this week. I consider low to mid 90s a hot air mass with DPs near 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 29 minutes ago, yoda said: I consider low to mid 90s a hot air mass with DPs near 70 I agree with both of you. I think what @Eskimo Joe is pointing out - is that this isn't triple digit heat. So it won't be a 2012 style scenario. My expectations are a bit tempered because of that - but also because there seems to be a consistent signal to keep the main focus to our north and/or west. That's two easy ways we could underperform.The high end on this from SPC is probably a 30% wind enhanced. With the potential of good mid-level lapse rates - there could be a good hailer somewhere too. Our best hope for something more than meh is for a cold pool to establish very well and then to get a forward propagating MCS that sustains as it sags south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I agree with both of you. I think what @Eskimo Joe is pointing out - is that this isn't triple digit heat. So it won't be a 2012 style scenario. My expectations are a bit tempered because of that - but also because there seems to be a consistent signal to keep the main focus to our north and/or west. That's two easy ways we could underperform.The high end on this from SPC is probably a 30% wind enhanced. With the potential of good mid-level lapse rates - there could be a good hailer somewhere too. Our best hope for something more than meh is for a cold pool to establish very well and then to get a forward propagating MCS that sustains as it sags south Well I hope people aren't expecting 2012 to be walking through the door... cause that's just silly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: I agree with both of you. I think what @Eskimo Joe is pointing out - is that this isn't triple digit heat. So it won't be a 2012 style scenario. My expectations are a bit tempered because of that - but also because there seems to be a consistent signal to keep the main focus to our north and/or west. That's two easy ways we could underperform.The high end on this from SPC is probably a 30% wind enhanced. With the potential of good mid-level lapse rates - there could be a good hailer somewhere too. On the plus side, it's good to see the complex / line being favored to go on the northern end of the subforum. Historically, these things dive further south at the last minute. Re-analysis of the 2008, 2012, and 2013 events shows the meso guidance was too far north at HR 48+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 This has been the most intriguing part to me - we don't normally get good hail results in SARS like this - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This has been the most intriguing part to me - we don't normally get good hail results in SARS like this - Has this mainly been on the NAM? Or has the GFS and EURO been having the same? And those are some large matches by hail size... probably helped by the eastward moving EML with between 7.5 and 8.0 C/KM mid level Lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Has this mainly been on the NAM? Or has the GFS and EURO been having the same? And those are some large matches by hail size... probably helped by the eastward moving EML with between 7.5 and 8.0 C/KM mid level Lapse rates Mainly NAM - but even the GFS has printed out a few good hailer results here and there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Mainly NAM - but even the GFS has printed out a few good hailer results here and there. History shows that in these parts if the GFS and Euro aren't on board, at least to a certain extent, then it's just the NAM being the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: History shows that in these parts if the GFS and Euro aren't on board, at least to a certain extent, then it's just the NAM being the NAM. Indeed. GFS doesn't look "bad" - it's always lower end than the NAM on svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Indeed. GFS doesn't look "bad" - it's always lower end than the NAM on svr. That's the thing. If the GFS and Euro get pumped, then you know it's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Afternoon AFD from LWX discussing severe for Wed to Fri time period: By Wednesday, south southwesterly flow will continue to pump in ample low level moisture across the area and much warmer temperatures as 850 temps near 20C. High temperatures on Wednesday will soar into the upper 80s to middle 90s, with heat indices reaching the upper 90s near and south of the District. At the same time a cold front will be dropping southward from the Great Lakes and into Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability will increase between 15-20k J/kg across the area, as mid-upper level winds increase and turn westerly, resulting in 40+ knots of shear. As the front inches southward while coinciding with an approaching shortwave from the Ohio, showers and thunderstorms are expected to encroach from the north late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Question remains how much southward progress the convective activity can make into our CWA during this time before losing the support of daytime heating. That being said, the threat for scattered severe storms will exist across our far northern zones that hug the Mason Dixon Line (SPC Slight Risk), with a more isolated threat extending down to the I-66 corridor. Activity is expected to wane Wednesday night with the loss of insolation, while conditions remain warm and muggy with lows holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Area will remain in warm humid air mass through Sat morning. So, the risk of t-storms will be present Thu and Fri with potential for severe thunderstorms especially Fri. Only height rises are shown by models through Friday, therefore, forcing will be driven by mesoscale features hard to determine this far out. A cold front is expected to finally push through the area Sat with enough dry air to lower humidity and inhibit t-storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 15-20 k J/kg instability, wow we will all need underground shelters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: 15-20 k J/kg instability, wow we will all need underground shelters I just re-read that and - Hail the size of comets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 The 18z NAM has the axis of good parameters a bit closer to the DC metro this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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