mappy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 thank goodness for severe chances, adds a bit of excitement to these ever boring days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 Simulated echo tops aren't that impressive - so things will probably be low topped. But isn't the freezing level pretty low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Simulated echo tops aren't that impressive - so things will probably be low topped. But isn't the freezing level pretty low? yes. The soundings are really cape-starved. The only reason we have a chance is because the dynamics of this system are really impressive. Hail is a concern due to the low freezing levels for sure, but the meager instability argues against seeing widespread larger sizes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 The DC metro is now within the SLGT risk. 0% Tornado/ 15% Wind/ 0% Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, George BM said: The DC metro is now within the SLGT risk. 0% Tornado/ 15% Wind/ 0% Hail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Pretty cloudy out at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Pretty cloudy out at the moment. This is your "classic" DC severe day. Cloudy, limited instability but decent lapse rate and/or shear. We get some clearing and one or two spots win out but for everyone else it's a ho-hum event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is your "classic" DC severe day. Cloudy, limited instability but decent lapse rate and/or shear. We get some clearing and one or two spots win out but for everyone else it's a ho-hum event. With dews in the 40s and temps in the 50s - I'm not at all enthused for anything more than a breezy shower or two and a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Full sun here but clouds are just beginning to move in. 62/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is your "classic" DC severe day. Cloudy, limited instability but decent lapse rate and/or shear. We get some clearing and one or two spots win out but for everyone else it's a ho-hum event. cape was going to be limited no matter what, but yeah, we need every degree we can get today. At least warm advection is at least somewhat offsetting the lack of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: With dews in the 40s and temps in the 50s - I'm not at all enthused for anything more than a breezy shower or two and a rumble of thunder. I'm slightly more bullish about this than you due to the impressive dynamics, but the better solutions say that we're roughly 64/48 just ahead of the storms. If we don't get there, it will definitely be lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm slightly more bullish about this than you due to the impressive dynamics, but the better solutions say that we're roughly 64/48 just ahead of the storms. If we don't get there, it will definitely be lame. Winchester, Martinsburg and Hagerstown all have dews in the 30s this morning. But they are also pretty far west. Let's see what the next few hours hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Hail being reported with the line NW of Morgantown, WV and it's 53/42 there. If we can manage like 65/45 today we're probably good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Winchester, Martinsburg and Hagerstown all have dews in the 30s this morning. But they are also pretty far west. Let's see what the next few hours hold. Yeah, that area is going to have trouble with dew points due to downsloping. Upper 40s here. T/Td will be fun to monitor over the next 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just like that a decent wedge of clearing appears on visible. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Significant uptick in lightning just west of Garrett County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That would be so cool to see here. Not getting my hopes up - but let's do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: That would be so cool to see here. Not getting my hopes up - but let's do it! It's entirely possible to get a dump of small hail stones from sub-severe storms today. There are several mPING report in the 0.25" - 0.5" range in areas with limited population so you know the storms are producing if you're getting reports from the void. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 trying to clear up in Parkton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 A little sun poking out around here now. 3K is pretty scattered but we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hail being reported with the line NW of Morgantown, WV and it's 53/42 there. If we can manage like 65/45 today we're probably good. 1 hour ago, high risk said: Yeah, that area is going to have trouble with dew points due to downsloping. Upper 40s here. T/Td will be fun to monitor over the next 3 hours. I'm up to 66.1, but the dews are stuck in the upper 40s. IAD is ~65/43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Don't know if it matters down toward FXBG, but sun came out and we are at 67/48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 I’ve had sun in N Arlington for 20-30 minutes. 63/44 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21, 2020 Author Share Posted April 21, 2020 Mesoanalysis has mid-level lapse rates getting crappier but low level lapse rates still steepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 very reasonable MD issued. a respectable 65/45 at BWI. heating is good - just need to maintain low to mid 40s dew points. It has mixed out to 41 at IAD, but the models have consistently shown a less favorable environment on the west side of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 gusty showers right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: the winds are howling right now and all of a sudden. I do believe winds were supposed to pick up following the front, but not sure its passed you yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: there’s a little rain to my west, but the heavy band is about 10 miles directly north of me. A pretty decent gust-front just went through Charles Town looking at the radar. What would you guesstimate the strength of the gusts to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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