midatlanticweather Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: As soon as I type that, we get a SVR with tornado possible tag just east of Elkins, WV and there's better clearing in the WV panhandle and western MD. Maybe there's a window for one or two good segments still. I just happened to read that warning and it was estimating winds to 80mph possible! WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 SPC is considering a tornado watch for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, midatlanticweather said: I just happened to read that warning and it was estimating winds to 80mph possible! WOW! It's going into the West Virginia Radar Hole™ now. More lightning picking up across WV so maybe there's a response from that cluster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: SPC is considering a tornado watch for the area. 80% chance of one by 16z per the text: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0381.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 80 percent chance of a Tornado Watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Isn't it supposed to be windy or something? 12Z NAM 3k has my area experiencing 25-30mph sustained w/ gusts in the 50s at 10am. I barely see the leaves moving... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 80% chance of one by 16z per the text: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0381.html I'd imagine it will be a relatively low probability watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentTalkie Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Suddenly lots of blue sky in western Albemarle. Full sun at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 There's actually a nice little wedge of clearing. It might be enough for a couple of good cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 def getting brighter here at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Sky starting to brighten up here. Winds now steady out of the SW ~10 mph and temps up to 67 degrees in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Already had a power outage here for an hour +, and the wind is really gusting again now. It had calmed down a bit when the rain stopped earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Dews and temps been slowly rising past couple hours . Yup it feels legit humid out there now. Temp is up to 68 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 66.8 and steadily rising here. The NAM and Euro really busted on getting the winds to the surface this morning. I think the Icon was in better shape regarding that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 From Mt. Holly: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Its been an interesting couple of hours this morning as the warm frontal rainfall generally fell east of where we had anticipated it. We`ve seen generally 0.5-1" of rainfall east of the I-95 corridor and across DelMarVa. Based on forecast RFC Flash Flood Guidance, and DOT reports have confirmed, this has been causing the potential for some ponding of water over roads and areas of poor drainage. The pressing issue is that right behind the rainfall fall we`ve seen significant increases in reports of stronger winds. Looking at one hour pressure changes in the HRRR and from obs in the area we`ve seen all the signatures of a gravity wave propagating through the Mid-Atlantic. We`ve issued an SPS to highlight this threat. Moving forward into today, SPC has expanded the SLGT just a bit further north and we think that today`s set up to be an impact day with regards to convection. The timing of the threat should run from around noon through 8pm on the late side. Based on our mesoanalysis forecasters thoughts, we should see initially discrete cells moving through before coalescing into a line of storms. All of the typical steering flow indicators, deep layer shear, bunkers-right, and storm relative flow all is oblique to the boundary. This should mean that as the storms approach the I-95 corridor we`ll be looking at a QLCS event with the potential for rotation along the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: 66.8 and steadily rising here. The NAM and Euro really busted on getting the winds to the surface this morning. I think the Icon was in better shape regarding that aspect. LWX's AM disco talks about a double temp inversion which capped things up. It's literally always something stupid when it comes to severe wx or snow in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Storm warned in NE Randolph county in WV updated as of 11am for 80mph winds still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, SlowerLowerDE said: From Mt. Holly: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Its been an interesting couple of hours this morning as the warm frontal rainfall generally fell east of where we had anticipated it. We`ve seen generally 0.5-1" of rainfall east of the I-95 corridor and across DelMarVa. Based on forecast RFC Flash Flood Guidance, and DOT reports have confirmed, this has been causing the potential for some ponding of water over roads and areas of poor drainage. The pressing issue is that right behind the rainfall fall we`ve seen significant increases in reports of stronger winds. Looking at one hour pressure changes in the HRRR and from obs in the area we`ve seen all the signatures of a gravity wave propagating through the Mid-Atlantic. We`ve issued an SPS to highlight this threat. Moving forward into today, SPC has expanded the SLGT just a bit further north and we think that today`s set up to be an impact day with regards to convection. The timing of the threat should run from around noon through 8pm on the late side. Based on our mesoanalysis forecasters thoughts, we should see initially discrete cells moving through before coalescing into a line of storms. All of the typical steering flow indicators, deep layer shear, bunkers-right, and storm relative flow all is oblique to the boundary. This should mean that as the storms approach the I-95 corridor we`ll be looking at a QLCS event with the potential for rotation along the line. Here is the SPS on the gravity wave- Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105-131545- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 ...Brief period of damaging wind gusts possible late this morning... Several surface observations from central Pennsylvania have indicated a one-to-two hour period of wind gusts between 40 and 70 mph. These stronger winds have reached the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Wind gusts may reach 60 mph in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey through midday. Tree damage and power outages may occur with these stronger wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Quick line forming from CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Per SPC, supercell composite now a 4 along and west of the Potomac Rivier up through HGR back down to I-81. SBCAPE pushing ~750 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Cell just NW of Moorefield, WV is trying to pin up a bit and the SVR warned cell in WV is looking a tad better on radar. Keep in mind that's in the land of minimal radar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per SPC, supercell composite now a 4 along and west of the Potomac Rivier up through HGR back down to I-81. SBCAPE pushing ~750 at DCA. 750 SBCAPE isn't bad for having no sun so far. The clearing should help boost that at-or-above 1000. Things are looking a bit better compared to earlier. It definitely feels muggy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: 750 SBCAPE isn't bad for having no sun so far. The clearing should help boost that at-or-above 1000. Things are looking a bit better compared to earlier. It definitely feels muggy out there. Yea we might scrape out a legit slight risk thingy here. Despite rain, temp now 68/65 in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Latest HRRR looks awful but it doesn't match current radar at all, so it's probably worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Latest HRRR looks awful but it doesn't match current radar at all, so it's probably worthless. HRRR should catch up by 00z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Full sun here now...plenty of blue skies to my west. Temp rising quick with the sun out...up 2 degrees in the past 15 minutes. 64.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Wind is nearly non existent. Is it safe to say it’s more than likely a bust ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per SPC, supercell composite now a 4 along and west of the Potomac Rivier up through HGR back down to I-81. SBCAPE pushing ~750 at DCA. Oddly enough the LSV and then SE in PA prob does better than DC and most of Maryland today. Odd, isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, jewell2188 said: Wind is nearly non existent. Is it safe to say it’s more than likely a bust ? The wind? Or severe weather? Synoptic wind definitely busted here. Severe is more uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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