Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: There's also not a whole lot of a gap between the current clouds on satellite and the clouds forming behind. Needs to hurry up and get here. Yea the gap is closing a bit more than I'd like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Imo, the non tstorm winds might be the big story today. Agreed. That’s the biggest story today...along with any showers or storms that mix the real stuff down and make it even worse. Severe stuff sometimes pans out here but not legitly that often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yea the gap is closing a bit more than I'd like to see. What would be really nice is if the back edge of these clouds we are under now started to erode while concurrently moving out. Not seeing that so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Oh awesome enhanced getting closer to us and wind warnings and thunderstorms spreading and.... and it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 No rain but strongest wind gusts so far peaking frequently over 50mph here. For the first time since Jan 25, 2010 the front door "tooted" twice due to strong southerly wind gusts! Last time before that was Isabel. So that's saying something. Power went off for 5 seconds at 0905 as well. It rarely goes out for long here unless it's a legit event. Last long term (>24 hr) event was 03/02/2018. Be careful guys, we got 1.85" here so far, there's ponding in the yard and puddles everywhere our 7 month old border collie pup has dug! Even strong trees can uproot in these winds. At least they're still bare otherwise we'd have the usual damage from tstorm gusts in the summer but much more widespread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Virginia weather & news page On FB sounding the all clear stating “severe threat has greatly diminished” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Yesterday I expressed concern that the carolinas would steal the show or we'd have a tad too much cloud cover. It appears we're getting both. While I'm still hoping for something to happen with the afternoon activity, it looks like we're going to bust on the low end here unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yesterday I expressed concern that the carolinas would steal the show or we'd have a tad too much cloud cover. It appears we're getting both. While I'm still hoping for something to happen with the afternoon activity, it looks like we're going to bust on the low end here unless something changes. Typical Mid-Atlantic severe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 The RAP has dialed back instability figures for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Typical Mid-Atlantic severe day. It seems to be a bit worse. The lack of weather data from commercial aircraft is really hampering NWP. The guidance for us yesterday had everyone getting towards 75 to 80 degrees south of DC and we're stuck in the mid 60s down to EZF at nearly 10:00 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Are the wind gusts supposed to pick up at all? It’s been calm still down in Richmond. Also, Tornado Warning for New Kent County and Charles City County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Would be lol if the main show was the rain we got earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Normally a south wind would be helpful - but there's no warm air south of us to advect in. Dews look okay at least... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Normally a south wind would be helpful - but there's no warm air south of us to advect in. Dews look okay at least... It’s 10am on April 13...how warm did you expect it to be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Those hoping for severe weather won't want to look at latest HRRR or 3k NAM. Very isolated stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: It would be peak DC to have everything miss to our south east and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: It would be peak DC to have everything miss to our south east and north. HRRR did kind of hint at that on a few runs with stuff getting going in like northern and northeast Maryland. Though - I can't imagine PHL and SEPA will get much more than us if the clouds don't start booking it out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Normally a south wind would be helpful - but there's no warm air south of us to advect in. Dews look okay at least... Do you think Richmond is still in the game? Capes look good from 3k nam 12z but not sure if other factors are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 LWX thoughts Potential still exists for a second round of showers and possible thunderstorms to develop in the 15Z-18Z time frame, but this isn`t completely certain it will happen. Hi-res models are in disagreement with convective coverage with the HRRR showing mainly shallow convection and the Hi-Res ARW and the NSSL WRF ARW showing scattered deep convection in the form of short lines or bowing segments. The 12Z IAD sounding showed two inversions with one from sfc to 850 mb and second one from 750 to 700 mb and corresponding high LFC or Level of Free Convection abv 700 mb. With best 3-hr pressure falls and height falls occurring over western and north central MD in the 15Z-18Z time frame, this is where I would expect the best chance of deep convective development rest of today. Regardless of convective coverage and intensity, strong gradient winds of 45 to 55 mph will occur outside of showers except greater than 57 mph in southern MD where 50kt have already been reported. The risk of convection will be winding down after 18Z and should be over by 21Z if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 As soon as I type that, we get a SVR with tornado possible tag just east of Elkins, WV and there's better clearing in the WV panhandle and western MD. Maybe there's a window for one or two good segments still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just a note! Eastern NC is lit! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Can we get a storm with winds stronger than the synaptic winds behind the coldfront? Thats all I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: As soon as I type that, we get a SVR with tornado possible tag just east of Elkins, WV and there's better clearing in the WV panhandle and western MD. Maybe there's a window for one or two good segments still. Chance for something isolated perhaps. But we'll need some support and it's not likely to be as widespread as earlier thought possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It would be peak DC to have everything miss to our south east and north. Timing has been off for DC for some time which is odd because that's what you guys do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Just a note! Eastern NC is lit! Wow! Message from friends who have been trying to get back home to Maryland. They ducked into a Marina in Southport, NC yesterday. "Tornado just ripped thru the area about 10 miles from us - we had to stand in front of the door to the sun deck to keep it from being blown open shearing the lock. 2 vessels near us lost all canvas ( Bimini tops that they did not take down and secure ) and a sail boat at end of pier that did not secure the main sail - broke lines holding the sail and it is now flopping/shredding in the wind." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 More showery junk in VA and running up into SCentral PA to keep our temps from warming. Blech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Bodhi Cove said: Message from friends who have been trying to get back home to Maryland. They ducked into a Marina in Southport, NC yesterday. "Tornado just ripped thru the area about 10 miles from us - we had to stand in front of the door to the sun deck to keep it from being blown open shearing the lock. 2 vessels near us lost all canvas ( Bimini tops that they did not take down and secure ) and a sail boat at end of pier that did not secure the main sail - broke lines holding the sail and it is now flopping/shredding in the wind." Wow! Glad they are ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: More showery junk in VA and running up into SCentral PA to keep our temps from warming. Blech Meso model have been alluding to this since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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