Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 From the 03z SREF products on the SPC page - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Supercell composite up to 8 in SW VA, DCAPE around 700. Not too bad for 8:30 in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I think the winds will be legit later and any heavy shower/storm development will aid in the mixing down to surface but goes most of the time, I think the severe threat is a bit overblown for this one..we’re just a little too far north for the explosive development and that line segment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Winds shifted to SW in Gaithersburg at our wx station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The streaks in the clouds is amazeballs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, H2O said: The streaks in the clouds is amazeballs No kidding. I've been refreshing the Wyoming sounding site for a while now like an idiot because I forgot about the time change. Will be interesting to see IAD and Roanoke's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: No kidding. I've been refreshing the Wyoming sounding site for a while now like an idiot because I forgot about the time change. Will be interesting to see IAD and Roanoke's. All the low levels clouds are clearing out pretty rapidly down here. Event some if the mid level junk is trying to break up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: All the low levels clouds are clearing out pretty rapidly down here. Event some if the mid level junk is trying to break up. IT'S HAPPENING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: IT'S HAPPENING It might in fact be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Here is a great video n how to read a TAF: 22 minutes ago, mappy said: this might help https://www.aviationweather.gov/static/help/taf-decode.php Thank you both for the replies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: I'm thinking timing for Carroll county will be late morning to just after lunch . Do you think that's accurate? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Does it seem to be nearing the end for Central Virginia / RIC? I guess that would leave us with gusty winds if anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 The new SPC D1 is pretty lame lol. For the superstitious folks out there that's probably exciting news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Really anxious for the 12z RAOB out of IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Winds kicking up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The new SPC D1 is pretty lame lol. For the superstitious folks out there that's probably exciting news. Yea they seem almost completely disinterested in anything north of RIC. Quote ...Northern VA to PA area late morning into early afternoon... There will be a window of opportunity for surface-based storm development later this morning through early afternoon from VA into MD/DE/NJ and PA with the synoptic cold front. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s north of the pre-frontal squall line farther south, and some cloud breaks later this morning, should allow at least weak surface-based buoyancy to develop. Vertical shear will be strong and a broken band of storms, capable of producing damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes, is expected to form and persist from roughly 16-21z (the precursor of which is the convection now near the OH/WV/KY border). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Did the 12z IAD sounding get abducted by aliens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Did the 12z IAD sounding get abducted by aliens? Something must be up with SPCs site...none of the 12z RAOBs have been posted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 The forecaster for the new D1 was Thompson and Kerr - are they known to be bearish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Large tree down on a house in my neighborhood in Takoma Park, house isn’t too badly damaged but it’s not even that windy yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Not sure where LWX's is, but here is Blacksburg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 ^PWAT of 19? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Wallops has 68kts at 305m. Woosh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: ^PWAT of 19? PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1000.0 -12 927.0 654 17.0 -32.0 2 0.28 210 10 296.5 297.5 296.6 925.0 659 17.4 13.0 75 10.27 210 12 297.1 327.1 298.9 897.6 914 15.5 12.1 80 9.96 200 29 297.7 326.9 299.5 DP got screwed up and is affecting the calculations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Imo, the non tstorm winds might be the big story today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Latest HRRR is pretty meh. Some scattered storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Latest HRRR is pretty meh. Some scattered storms. actually, it's quite good. Several discrete cells with a few decent UH tracks. If you want to see a massive bow echo swallowing the entire area, today is not your day. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Per some sky cams, there is some blue sky trying to work into Garrett County. It's definitely a bit more muted than i'd like for today, but it's not going to take much instability for an active afternoon to be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per some sky cams, there is some blue sky trying to work into Garrett County. It's definitely a bit more muted than i'd like for today, but it's not going to take much instability for an active afternoon to be realized. There's also not a whole lot of a gap between the current clouds on satellite and the clouds forming behind. Needs to hurry up and get here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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