Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 My thoughts on today. For the record, I remain intrigued at the event and think that most of our action comes this afternoon. 1.) Convection this morning has deposited between 0.75" and 2" of rain in the area. A report from the Roseland area of Nelson County, VA shows some mudslide along Rt. 6 and nearly 6" of rain. This convection was mostly elevated and I suspect the 12z RAOB from IAD will reveal a bit of a temperature inversion which is why the winds are relatively quite. Once the sun gets up things should mix out a bit and gustier winds will begin to occur. 2.) The area of interest for everyone is this afternoon's storms currently over Kentucky. IR satellite shows an area of distinct clearing ahead of this and water vapor reveals a legit dry slot which should allow at least some sunshine to occur later this morning. Just how much and how long will determine how effectively we can get some surface based instability. It's interesting to see a potential little mesolow around 994 mb being analyzed by the SPC meso analysis page near the OH/KY/WV border. This might aid in development of the afternoon activity. 3.) With the morning rain, the ground is relatively saturated. It will not take much for trees to come down from this afternoon's activity or even from the synoptic scale winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just lost a large cedar tree in the yard...the wind roared just as the precip was ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 For those of you setting your SRM on your favorite radar program, the mean storm motion appears to be 235°, 55kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Just lost a large cedar tree in the yard...the wind roared just as the precip was ending. Probably right on the leading edge of the dry slot. It's going to be an interesting day with the trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 For @Kmlwx et al, here is the SRM color palate that I use. SRM.pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: For @Kmlwx et al, here is the SRM color palate that I use. SRM.pal 2.39 kB · 0 downloads Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 First few legit scans of the visible satellite indicate an area of legitimate clearing across western portion of West Virginia. A good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 737 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... Charles County in southern Maryland... King George County in central Virginia... * Until 815 AM EDT. * At 737 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Quantico to near Fairview Beach, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Waldorf, La Plata, King George, Dahlgren, Quantico, Fairview Beach, Nanjemoy Creek, Popes Creek, Wicomico River, Potomac Creek, Port Tobacco River, Saint Charles, Wicomico, Cherry Hill, Bryans Road, Hughesville, Mechanicsville, Charlotte Hall, Passapatanzy and Cobb Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 nice rainy morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 HRRR is handling the winds, and therefore the boundary layer, much better than the NAM to this point. Almost nothing has made it to the surface yet around DC. DCA's highest gust this morning is 23mph. Even the HRRR shows the gusts picking up by 10-11am, though, as we destabilize. ~1.6" so far here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: HRRR is handling the winds, and therefore the boundary layer, much better than the NAM to this point. Almost nothing has made it to the surface yet around DC. DCA's highest gust this morning is 23mph. Even the HRRR shows the gusts picking up by 10-11am, though, as we destabilize. ~1.6" so far here. HRRR is lit for us later today. Tons of discrete stuff through 18/19z. Really hope this isn't a care of the HRRR being HRRible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 This batch of rain is going to be really bad for later. Even areas of my parent's yard (I'm in Colesville today) are completely water logged and spongy. There is major ponding. We are moving all of our cars out from under trees once the rain tapers off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR is lit for us later today. Tons of discrete stuff through 18/19z. Really hope this isn't a care of the HRRR being HRRible. It could be - nice when it improves in closing, though. What run are you looking at? You know the joke - the HRRR will be right 2 hours after our event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 Should we migrate to the obs thread? Or should we split into a thread specifically for this event? I realize it's kind of late into the event...but still something to consider. @mappy - what say the mods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It could be - nice when it improves in closing, though. What run are you looking at? You know the joke - the HRRR will be right 2 hours after our event! The latest one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Should we migrate to the obs thread? Or should we split into a thread specifically for this event? I realize it's kind of late into the event...but still something to consider. @mappy - what say the mods? I'd say throw stuff for today in the April obs thread. Thats just me. If we did have a separate thread already going then obvi there. But since we dont then reg obs thread could suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: Should we migrate to the obs thread? Or should we split into a thread specifically for this event? I realize it's kind of late into the event...but still something to consider. @mappy - what say the mods? i wouldnt migrate to a new thread. severe obs/disc here as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The latest one. The 06z 3km NAM is really nice around 16-17z locally too. Good UH tracks too...those are weak sauce on the HRRR for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Got my eye on Charleston, WV radar. That's where our activity will be forming over the next 2 to 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, H2O said: I'd say throw stuff for today in the April obs thread. Thats just me. If we did have a separate thread already going then obvi there. But since we dont then reg obs thread could suffice. then whats the point of this thread and an obs thread? if we are going to post our severe winds, watches, rain, etc in that thread... why have this one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: then whats the point of this thread and an obs thread? if we are going to post our severe winds, watches, rain, etc in that thread... why have this one? True - and it's already day-of. I think in the past we had treated this one as more like the winter-time "Long Range Discussion" thread. Arguments for both I guess - I definitely don't mind staying here. Though for anybody reading back in future years - does make it easier to find if it's a separate event thread. Let's stay here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: then whats the point of this thread and an obs thread? if we are going to post our severe winds, watches, rain, etc in that thread... why have this one? I guess i just thought this thread was to lead up to specific events and if there wasn't a thread made for that specific event the obs thread could take the bulk of the storm posts. Its whatever people want tho. Twas merely a suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: True - and it's already day-of. I think in the past we had treated this one as more like the winter-time "Long Range Discussion" thread. Arguments for both I guess - I definitely don't mind staying here. Though for anybody reading back in future years - does make it easier to find if it's a separate event thread. Let's stay here. IMO, we just keep doing what we are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: True - and it's already day-of. I think in the past we had treated this one as more like the winter-time "Long Range Discussion" thread. Arguments for both I guess - I definitely don't mind staying here. Though for anybody reading back in future years - does make it easier to find if it's a separate event thread. Let's stay here. I'm good with staying here as well for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 How often do you see a TAF like this: Quote 000 FTUS41 KLWX 131202 AAB TAFIAD TAF AMD KIAD 131202Z 1312/1418 14015G31KT 6SM -SHRA BKN015 OVC050 WS020/18050KT FM131400 19020G45KT 6SM SHRA VCTS BKN025CB BKN130 FM131800 23020G45KT P6SM VCSH BKN060 FM132000 26018G35KT P6SM SCT060 FM140000 29015G25KT P6SM SCT050 FM140500 32008KT P6SM SKC FM141400 32008G16KT P6SM FEW050 BKN200= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 coworker who lives in the Monkton area is without power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Got my eye on Charleston, WV radar. That's where our activity will be forming over the next 2 to 3 hours. True, and some of the storms that develop out there will come our way in a few hours, but the CAM simulations also show cells developing locally around midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: How often do you see a TAF like this: Sorry for the novice question but how do I read this? Is this showing the expected surface wind speed and direction at various times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, George BM said: Sorry for the novice question but how do I read this? Is this showing the expected surface wind speed and direction at various times? Here is a great video n how to read a TAF: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, George BM said: Sorry for the novice question but how do I read this? Is this showing the expected surface wind speed and direction at various times? this might help https://www.aviationweather.gov/static/help/taf-decode.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now