Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is a great visualization of the expansive nature of the system as it moves up our way. The wind just off the surface is so impressive. I honestly might be more impressed by that than any severe parameters for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 Holy cow - GFS has a pocket of 68kt winds at 925mb around 15z Monday. 70-75 isn't far away either. Pockets of 80-85kts at the 850 level. Offshore of NJ at 18z Monday - the 850 winds are like 110kts on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 High wind watch in effect here, Oh joy, haven't had enough of that. Monday looks interesting for sure. Latest AFD from Mt Holly on the potential: A significant storm system producing both strong and damaging winds and heavy rain is gearing up to affect the region from late Sunday night through Monday. Broad low pressure will continue to develop and organize over the Midwest Sunday evening as a deep upper trough digs through the western U.S. Meanwhile, out ahead of this low, a strong 70-80 kt LLJ at 925 mb and 80-90 kt winds at 850 mb will lift through the region Monday morning through Monday afternoon. In addition, a southerly pressure gradient will tighten over the region as the low rapidly intensifies, lowering from around 994 mb Sunday evening over the Midwest to around 980 mb by Monday evening. The NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate a low level inversion that would suggest that the strongest winds would remain aloft. However, with a tight gradient, and with heavy rain showers through the morning, there should be strong enough mixing. Generally expecting wind gusts of 40-50 mph in the southern Poconos, far NW New Jersey, and through the Lehigh Valley. For the rest of southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, the rest of New Jersey, and Delmarva, wind gusts will generally range from 50-60 mph, and there is the potential for even stronger winds right along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, possibly as high as 60-70 mph. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most of the region, except for the far northern zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 So... who's staying up tonight for the 00z NAM run and the new Day 2 outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, yoda said: So... who's staying up tonight for the 00z NAM run and the new Day 2 outlook? Yoda...the 0z NAM runs at like 10pm. That's not that wild I'll catch the new D2 tomorrow morning. I jinx things when I stay up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Not going to post them as there are many -- but the soundings across the region from the 18z NAM at 18z MON are just ridiculously silly. Something we see maybe once in a long while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: FWIW 18z Euro gets better surface Cape into central Md Monday. Probably be a nowcast thing I'm sure in reality. As in like > 1000 J/KG? How much we talking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 When the GFS and Euro put ~1,000 SBCAPE for your area, yoi know you're staring at a potentially good event. If this holds, we definitely are looking at something fascinating. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Thought I'd pop my head in here to see what crankywx has been severe honking about (ya don't see him honk that much...so I figured it had to be something notable!) So what's going on here? Lol (reading the other posts here now!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought I'd pop my head in here to see what crankywx has been severe honking about (ya don't see him honk that much...so I figured it had to be something notable!) So what's going on here? Lol (reading the other posts here now!) Posts tell the whole story. Big day tomorrow in the southeast. Maybe a decent severe day for us Monday. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 High Wind Watches already going up from mt holly, pittsburgh, and other areas sans CTP and LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The 00z NAM sounding for 18z Monday has a PDS Tornado classification per Dupage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: The 00z NAM sounding for 18z Monday has a PDS Tornado classification per Dupage. You got any sauce for those of us stuck on mobile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 This run is pretty bonkers...Decent amount of SIG TOR results coming back in the SARS box too. That CAPE has gotta be overdone you'd think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 Some of these forecast soundings are edging closer to 2000 SBCAPE... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You got any sauce for those of us stuck on mobile? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This run is pretty bonkers...Decent amount of SIG TOR results coming back in the SARS box too. That CAPE has gotta be overdone you'd think. Even cutting in half... still ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 We would probably do just fine even with 1000 CAPE. We've had days of 500-750 do fine with high shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 45 now into DC... 60 getting closer to EZF on 21z SREFs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Man all we need to see is the GFS and EURO hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Man all we need to see is the GFS and EURO hold serve. 18z EURO was pretty nice per @losetoa6 re SBCAPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 The 3km NAM is so convoluted. You’ve got the warm front showers overnight, effectively ending by 8am. Then we get the leftover line of storms from MS/TN late morning. And after that the parameters peak and we got more storms firing early afternoon. That is a lot going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 3km NAM is so convoluted. You’ve got the warm front showers overnight, effectively ending by 8am. Then we get the leftover line of storms from MS/TN late morning. And after that the parameters peak and we got more storms firing early afternoon. That is a lot going on. Some of our big severe days do seem to have a morning round. But this is a lot. I wonder if it'll get some clarity and focus more on one of the rounds in future runs. IF the models still look like this at 12z tomorrow I'm going to really start honking. @Eskimo Joe - you're looking at 0z tomorrow night, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Some of our big severe days do seem to have a morning round. But this is a lot. I wonder if it'll get some clarity and focus more on one of the rounds in future runs. IF the models still look like this at 12z tomorrow I'm going to really start honking. @Eskimo Joe - you're looking at 0z tomorrow night, right? Yea 00z tonorrow is big for me, need euro et al on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 Among the CAMs, the NAM nest is by far the best in terms of reflectivity, although its updraft helicity signals are modest. The other CAMs overall aren't as good. But the environment still looks like questionable instability but fantastic low level shear, so we're still very much in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 So NAMed this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 ^the old Brunswick to Parrs Ridge tornado alley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 NAM is most definitely concerning for your area. Sheesh.. Nice backing of the winds, with more then enough surface instability and substantial moisture. Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 New Day 2 is out... ENH reaches up to around EZF... 10% hatched TOR includes CHO/RIC and is also just south of EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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