yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Even at 21z MON across the region, 00z NAM is still printing out SBCAPE values around 2000 with pretty good deep layer shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Wow at the NAM....its stupid silly. Even half of what it's showing would be enough for an ENH risk level event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Got this from the SPC SREF page, can anyone with more knowledge than myself comment on what is being shown for our area here? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 From the 21z SREFs on the SPC website: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Day 3 OTLK should be intriguing to see in about an hour... but here is the new day 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Intriguing disco as well for our region from the morning Day 2 OTLK: ... Eastern Georgia into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic... Substantial low-level moistening is expected over eastern GA into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic through the period. There is a nonzero risk of organized convection along/north of the warm front during the day into the evening, which would pose some risk of locally damaging wind or perhaps a tornado, but confidence in this scenario is low at this time. A more likely scenario is for widespread upstream convection to evolve into multiple clusters or a QLCS and move into this region sometime early Monday morning. Intense wind profiles will support a risk of widespread damaging wind and a few tornadoes, given sufficient instability. The magnitude and coverage of the severe threat in this region will be determined in part by how fast organized convection approaches from the west. If convection accelerates and arrives faster that current guidance would indicate, then there is less time for low-level moistening and destabilization, and the magnitude and northward-extent of the threat may be limited. If convection does not arrive until very late in the period, then a more substantial severe threat could evolve. If some of the slower guidance turns out to be accurate, then the primary severe threat in this region may not come until the D3/Monday period. Probabilities may need to be increased in this area once the details come into better focus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 New day 3 OTLK disco adds even more intrigue for our region lol ...Mid Atlantic southeastward into northern FL... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the eastward progress of widespread convection that is expected to develop upstream Sunday night into early Monday morning. With very strong wind fields and at least marginal instability in place ahead of any ongoing thunderstorm clusters or QLCS, some threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will exist until convection moves completely offshore. If slower solutions end up verifying, then there would be time for additional destabilization in advance of any convection from the Mid Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, which would result in the potential for a more substantial severe risk, including the potential for more widespread damaging winds and possibly a greater tornado threat, associated with bowing segments and/or embedded supercells. If this scenario appears more likely in subsequent updates, an increase in probabilities will be required for some portion of this area. It is also possible that at least some of the Slight Risk area will need to be downgraded if convection reaches the coast faster than currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 The 06z NAM appears to have been an improvement again. SARS is even lighting up with sounding matches from the database at some points in our area. It maintains instability and puts good supercell and sigtor parameters in our area Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 06z GFS has 925 winds of 65kts over the area 15z Monday. Still pretty strong at 18z too - but the best winds are pulling north and east by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 Of note - the Euro (and to a much lesser extent the GFS) are still hinting at another storm system around the same time the following week. Euro has a 980ish low to our north still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The 06z NAM appears to have been an improvement again. SARS is even lighting up with sounding matches from the database at some points in our area. It maintains instability and puts good supercell and sigtor parameters in our area Mon. The Nest is in range now. The sim radar isn’t that interesting, probably because there are showers out front almost until initiation. However, the wind fields/sounding is wild. Wouldn’t take much to mix down (or spin up) something fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The Nest is in range now. The sim radar isn’t that interesting, probably because there are showers out front almost until initiation. However, the wind fields/sounding is wild. Wouldn’t take much to mix down (or spin up) something fun. The realist in me is expecting gusty showers or a gusty squall at best. But Feb 7 remains pretty highlighted in my mind. Things certainly haven't trended badly for us if you want some excitement. And if the recent Euro runs are right - we might do it all over again about 7 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I’m not basing this post on anything scientific. I just have a hunch tomorrow might be sneaky and some places see something big around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 The upper low that was over San Diego area last night has moved to northern tip of Gulf of California/south of Yuma AZ at the moment.....still looking like this could have the slower timing. Watch how that piece progresses eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Monday is so close to a big event in these parts. Slow thing down by about 2 to 5 hours and it could be really interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 If you have Twitter, follow Alicia. She's a wealth of synoptic knowledge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Monday is so close to a big event in these parts. Slow thing down by about 2 to 5 hours and it could be really interesting. Ohhh man. If you're close to going big... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Monday is so close to a big event in these parts. Slow thing down by about 2 to 5 hours and it could be really interesting. The slowing trend isn't as pronounced anymore - the other thing to consider is these squally type things do tend to come in a bit earlier than forecast. But the NAM keeps wanting to up the game. Insert all the usual "NAM at longer ranges" caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Ohhh man. If you're close to going big... Gotta wait and see what happens tomorrow and tomorrow night but so far I like what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Gotta wait and see what happens tomorrow and tomorrow night but so far I like what I see. I even think an 11am arrival time could do relatively well for us. I'm thinking a show time of 19z or later is mostly off the table. Maybe we compromise with the models slowing a bit but then the line/whatever it is arriving earlier. Gut says 10am-2pm could be the time to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 Also a note - CIPS keeps really hitting an event from May 1991 hard. I looked in the NCDC storm report database and it was a decent event in parts of the area. Focused north. There was a 70mph gust it looks like in northern Maryland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 2 hours ago, H2O said: I’m not basing this post on anything scientific. I just have a hunch tomorrow might be sneaky and some places see something big around here. You mean Monday. Tomorrow’s action is down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 NAM looks to have mostly held serve. No appreciable changes with the timing it seems. Still looks like 14z-18z would be the best parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I even think an 11am arrival time could do relatively well for us. I'm thinking a show time of 19z or later is mostly off the table. Maybe we compromise with the models slowing a bit but then the line/whatever it is arriving earlier. Gut says 10am-2pm could be the time to watch. Yea that'll work this time of year. We just need a bit of SBCAPE and some sun to help the storms get rooted at the surface. This isn't some rotted out 1012mb low, it's going to be rapidly maturing so it won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2020 Author Share Posted April 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea that'll work this time of year. We just need a bit of SBCAPE and some sun to help the storms get rooted at the surface. This isn't some rotted out 1012mb low, it's going to be rapidly maturing so it won't take much. I'm not sure we'll get much sun - that is still very much to be determined. I think there might be enough heavy rain the night before leftover to spoil that aspect of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Two rounds of potential here on the NAM nest: mid-morning and then mid-afternoon. The morning has better wind fields but limited heating; the afternoon will have better heating but weaker wind fields. Regardless, both have healthy potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Plenty of ways we can fail on this event, from timing to crapvection to clouds, etc but theres a high ceiling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 If there was an online gambling site for weather I'd bet on bust with these every time. It's like betting on the Orioles losing on Sunday games! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 CWG posted an article about the threat https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1249032861379936257 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 12z European looks to be on board for some severe weather Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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