Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 Take a look at those velocity returns behind the front back on the WV/VA border. Seeing 65mph pixels. Beam is a few thousand feet up there, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It’s been pouring here for the last 30 minutes. Gusty winds and thunder. yeah i guess that skinny squall line finally hit here. Windy, no thunder, raining. But sun is already trying to come out behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 That cell approaching Kent Island is trying to wrap up and has a bit of a flying eagle look to it. Wouldn't shock me if PHI put a TOR possible SVR out with it. LWX has waterspouts mentioned in the SMW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 I may get shrekt hardcore on this event. Pray for me because the Kent Island cell is heading right for my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 Attention gets to turn to Monday potential now. Latest GFS sends a little low through NC it looks like. Not going to do it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Some beefy winds have taken down some healthy, large trees in far NW Montgomery and portions of Frederick County. Not your typical rotted root bal, healthy hardwood oaks and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Some beefy winds have taken down some healthy, large trees in far NW Montgomery and portions of Frederick County. Not your typical rotted root bal, healthy hardwood oaks and such. Yeah...tis a blowin'. I live on top of the first hill going into New Market and it blew some things over already that haven't budged in months.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 For Monday - The 12z EURO warms us pretty nicely (low to mid 80s in VA even). Has a little low down in southern VA. Not sure that'll do it for us up here. It'll be a close call regardless. Still time to go - a bit more of a slowing trend would help us as well perhaps. A front crossing between 21z and 0z would be ideal from a heating standpoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: For Monday - The 12z EURO warms us pretty nicely (low to mid 80s in VA even). Has a little low down in southern VA. Not sure that'll do it for us up here. It'll be a close call regardless. Still time to go - a bit more of a slowing trend would help us as well perhaps. A front crossing between 21z and 0z would be ideal from a heating standpoint. Bring us home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Bring us home I'd feel much better if I was sitting down in Richmond or elsewhere in SEVA for this. I'll track it until we fail...but I'm just not sure this is going to be a win for us. Certainly a low probability thing up near mappyville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 Also - while not a BIG signal by any means - the 108hr on CIPS from from the 12z suite is showing some severe potential in the Mid-Atlantic/PA area. 5/6-7/1991 is showing up for a few runs now. 4/16/1994 as well 4/19-20/2013 which looks good on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 I know this is way out there for the NAM but it is trending slower and further west and the Euro has also been slower with the Sunday/Monday severe weather event...wherever that is centered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: I know this is way out there for the NAM but it is trending slower and further west and the Euro has also been slower with the Sunday/Monday severe weather event...wherever that is centered. At some point, the trend is likely to slow or stop...and the GFS is still a fast outlier. Easy to toss with the other models against it - but it could also be a compromise. EE rule? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Posted by a met who I believe works for Mt Holly WFO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 If that 925mb GFS wind field ends up verifying and shifts west, that could be a bit of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Posted by a met who I believe works for Mt Holly WFO So approaching 60 kts right off the deck towards DC... just a little windy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'd feel much better if I was sitting down in Richmond or elsewhere in SEVA for this. I'll track it until we fail...but I'm just not sure this is going to be a win for us. Certainly a low probability thing up near mappyville. I’ll share the weather with you all from Richmond... somehow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 Last 4 runs of GFS - clear trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 Looking at the sounding climatology page on the SPC site - it looks like some of the 925mb and 850mb wind speeds the models are putting out for Monday around 12z, they'd be near record levels...not just for the date but in general. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Looking at the sounding climatology page on the SPC site - it looks like some of the 925mb and 850mb wind speeds the models are putting out for Monday around 12z, they'd be near record levels...not just for the date but in general. Yes, those early morning wind speeds Monday will be incredible, and that's probably our best shot at SVR. The warm air will be racing north, and there may be a window in the early hours during which the amazing wind fields are overhead and we get a little bit of sfc-based instability. Ultimately, we probably won't have sfc-based convection, but if we do, watch out! But even with the front slowing down a lot, I'm not too excited about SVR potential during the afternoon (as of now). The strongest wind fields and best moisture will quickly shift to our northeast Monday morning, and we're going to end up in the dry slot with strongly veered low-level flow. The downscoping will likely send us into the low 80s, but we're going to dry out a lot in the low levels. Maybe we get a strongly-forced low top line with some wind later in the day, but I don't see more than that as of now, although there is still time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 @high risk 00z NAM soundings for 12z MON are pretty impressive.. even with only around 500 J/KG of SBCAPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 DT (WxRisk) posted a special video for the late weekend and early next week storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 6z GFS was a smidge slower again it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 In fact, that GFS run seems to indicate there could be some instability around in a narrow band at around 15z. Also, some of the winds at 15z and 18z are stronger than last run. Keep the trend going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Monday is starting to look interesting up even towards Baltimore and Frederick. It's going to be interesting to see how Sunday plays out down south...if things go as planned down there then we probably stand a good chance of seeing a decent line move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Monday is starting to look interesting up even towards Baltimore and Frederick. It's going to be interesting to see how Sunday plays out down south...if things go as planned down there then we probably stand a good chance of seeing a decent line move through. The one thing that keeps me muted on Monday (other than our usual "we always fail" mantra) is how much rainfall is progged for Sun night to Mon AM - that could serve to just stabilize the heck out of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Just now, Kmlwx said: The one thing that keeps me muted on Monday (other than our usual "we always fail" mantra) is how much rainfall is progged for Sun night to Mon AM - that could serve to just stabilize the heck out of us. Flip side....it rains a lot and we get a QLCS that wrecks the trees because of saturated soil. Either way, the Sunday PM to Monday midday is looking busy in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 10, 2020 Author Share Posted April 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Flip side....it rains a lot and we get a QLCS that wrecks the trees because of saturated soil. Either way, the Sunday PM to Monday midday is looking busy in these parts. I think the biggest questions we need to answer are - How much surface based instability is going to be available locally in DC/Balt: Right now that looks like maybe a max of 500J/kg in a narrow tongue - Will the wind field be well-timed with whatever we get?: Models had been suggesting the best winds would be racing well east of our area by 15z, that slowing has continued, though. - Does any sort of mini-low form separate from the system? It looks more consolidated on some of the more recent guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I think the biggest questions we need to answer are - How much surface based instability is going to be available locally in DC/Balt: Right now that looks like maybe a max of 500J/kg in a narrow tongue - Will the wind field be well-timed with whatever we get?: Models had been suggesting the best winds would be racing well east of our area by 15z, that slowing has continued, though. - Does any sort of mini-low form separate from the system? It looks more consolidated on some of the more recent guidance. All good points, none of which will likely be resolved until about <12 hours out. We're just going to have to look for trends, timing, etc an monitor upstream conditions. If we see an overperforming event in Dixie Alley with discrete action ahead of the main line, all bets are off and it could be the event of the spring. If it's QLCS mess behind stratiform rain then we fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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